Shocking, right?

Looking at Utah’s cap situation and the seemingly inevitable drama that would have followed the Jazz around next season – the “Where will Deron go?” hysteria – Utah made a gutsy decision and turned a great point guard into a very good point guard, an interesting rookie, and two draft picks.

The conclusions that we can draw are:

1. Sloan’s departure hurt the Jazz in more ways than one. Some might say that Williams hated Sloan, but the Jazz never (or almost never) lost 4 games in a row during the Sloan era.

2. Williams must have given Utah a signal about leaving. Why else would they trade the cornerstone of the franchise? He must have said or done something to show the people in Utah that he wasn’t on board for the long haul.

3. The Melo’ drama scared Utah. If we assume that Williams made it clear he wasn’t planning on sticking, then we have to wonder why Utah wouldn’t try to change his mind. It’s much easier to convince a superstar to stay than it is to replace him…but the Melo’ craziness must have shown Utah that keeping Williams was difficult. Not to mention all the media circus crap.

4. Utah isn’t going to fall off the map. Devin Harris can play, and despite his defensive problems Al Jefferson can play. Harris and Jefferson are a nice inside-out combo – throw in some shooting and Utah isn’t too bad.

The two draft picks are a nice pickup too – hopefully one of them is NJ’s and hopefully it’s unprotected. Houston’s “18 protected” pick that was rumored to be included in the Melo deal isn’t much of a first-rounder.

5. What happens to Milsap? I doubt that Utah trades him now, but moving Milsap seems like a foregone conclusion either this summer or before the next trade deadline. In all likelihood, Favors is good enough to replace him in the next year.

6. What happens if NJ can’t get Williams to agree to an extension? It’s high-stakes poker if New Jersey gives up Derrick Favors and picks for a guy who hasn’t committed. Bold.

It looks like small-market teams will be more likely than ever to jump the gun when a big player comes up for free agency. In this new era where players are all friends with one another, small-market superstars seem likely to leave…maybe that’s not a bad thing. If small-market teams build around good players, smart drafting, and fundamentals, they’ll be just as capable of playing for a championship as unbalanced “super teams” with little depth.

1. Utah and Miami – Boozer would love a deal that would send him to Miami, and Wade would likely hook-up on an extension right away if Boozer came to town. It’s hard to imagine who Miami would send back to Utah, however. If they were willing to part with some young guards (whom Utah has no need for), Udonis Haslem, a draft pick, and $3 million in cash, they could string a deal together. It’s possible on paper, but it looks like a bad deal for Utah. Miami might consider trading Beasley for Boozer, but that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me - Beasley has more upside and Utah doesn’t need him.

2. Utah and Chicago – This is the deal that gets everyone excited, but honestly I don’t get it. Trading Boozer for Tyrus Thomas and Salmons sounds like a decent deal for Utah, but I think it makes Chicago worse. Trading Tyrus Thomas and an expiring deal sounds better for Chicago, but that’s a pittance for Utah. Ultimately, I doubt that Utah is that interested in Tyrus Thomas. He’s not a Sloan-type player, and the whole point of trading Boozer is to clear the way for Milsap while also getting some value. Thomas is going to want minutes, so adding him just creates more problems.

3. Utah and Detroit – I doubt it. Detroit had their chance to make a run at Boozer in the days heading up to free agency and they never expressed interest. If they had, Utah wouldn’t be in this situation in the first place.

4. Utah and Charlotte – This one isn’t getting a lot of press, but it seems possible. Charlotte could send Gerald Wallace and a small contract to Utah for Boozer, and both teams would likely get better. The problem is that I doubt Charlotte wants to pay Boozer big dollars next summer, so they would likely be losing Gerald Wallace to rent Boozer for a season – probably not going to happen.

5. Utah and the Knicks – I’m about to layout a crazy trade scenario, but honestly it makes as much sense as anything else I can think of. The Knicks could sign and trade David Lee and Cuttino Mobely to Utah for Boozer and Harpring.

If Utah traded for David Lee, they could either a) have an excuse to let Milsap go to Portland or b) have one of the best front lines in the Western Conference with Lee, Milsap, and Okur.

NYC would get the rights to re-sign Boozer next summer along with another big-time free agent, so it’s a win for them.

The way I’ve laid out this trade, Utah could afford to pay Milsap AND Lee next year and then let some people go next summer. Here’s how it would work.

• The Knicks sign Lee to a front-loaded contract with his first year at about 11.6 million.

• The Knicks then trade Lee and Cat Mobley to Utah for Boozer and Harpring. Lee is a base year compensation (BYC) player, so the league only counts 1/2 of his new salary towards the trade on New York’s side of the equation.

• i.e., NY sends out 9.5 million for Mobley and 5.8 million for Lee (because of the BYC rule), or 15.3 million as far as the trade rules are concerned.

• Utah sends out 12.7 for Boozer plus 6.5 for Harpring – 19.2 million total. This is barely within the allowable range for NY.

• Utah takes back more salary than they sent out – 21.1 million. Adding this extra 1.9 million to the salary also adds another 1.9 million in luxury taxes, so Utah’s costs will go up 3.8 million.

• However, since insurance covers 7.6 million of Mobley’s contract Utah is actually UP 3.8 million after you account for the extra salary and tax due to Lee.

• NYC sends Utah $3 million in cash to make the deal, so Utah ends up with $6.8 million in savings that they can use to pay for Milsap.

• Utah could likely get one of NY’s first round draft picks as well.

In Utah, Lee can step in and produce immediately. Utah might also have a first round pick to look forward to, and Mobley’s expiring contract next summer takes them out of the tax. Best of all, they would get to keep their guy Milsap.

Lee, Milsap, and Okur would be a great front line to match-up against Portland, Denver, L.A., and San Antonio, and their line will only get better as the years go by. It’s not necessarily the cheapest way to go for Utah, but it’s a nice deal for sure.

Best of all, Portland’s front office comes off looking like a bunch of dummies.

Thoughts?

1) Phoenix Suns – With all the angst from last season, these guys have got a big chip on their shoulder that should translate to the best record in the league.

2) Dallas Mavericks – Just because they bombed out of the first round last year doesn’t mean they won’t be a force in the regular season. There’s nothing wrong with this team.

3) San Antonio Spurs – Every year I think “these guys are too old”, but they just keep getting it done. As long as Duncan and Parker are healthy, they’re the team to beat.

4) Denver Nuggets – The Nuggets will beat out the Jazz for the best record in the Northwest division. They’ve got an easy schedule through December, and they’ll finish strong as usual.

5) Utah Jazz – The Jazz had an interesting off-season that will impact their regular season performance, but they should manage to stay very close to Denver for the division lead.

6) Houston Rockets – Adelman’s clever offensive scheme will make Yao Ming the best player in the west (at least on paper), but there will be a learning curve.

7) Golden State Warriors – Assuming Baron Davis is healthy, Warriors run-and-gun basketball will challenge every team they play in the regular season.

8 ) Memphis Grizzlies – Pau Gasol can be a dominant player when healthy, and this team has a enough talent to make a grab for the last spot in the playoffs.

While I’m not going to predict how these seeds will perform in the playoffs until we get closer, I will officially declare my favorite to win the Western Conference. (drum roll…)

Phoenix. The Suns have everything they need to win, and they won’t be denied this year because of questionable calls. While I’m at it, I’ll go ahead and say that Phoenix will also be the NBA champ in the upcoming season.

Also, my pick for last place in the Western conference goes to the Sonics. Between the lack of veteran talent, the lack of defense, and the ownership’s bid to move the team, anything more than a terrible season is wishful thinking.