First, some assumptions:

1. That all the important players stay mostly healthy.
2. That there aren’t any major trades. Obviously this will change, but when it does the rankings will be updated (if I have time).
3. That some lame-o (who isn’t bold enough to publish their own predictions before the season begins) will criticize me when the season ends. Lame.

In order of how they’ll finish…

1) L.A. Lakers

Possibilities: Another trophy.

Problems: Point guards. On both sides of the ball. Quick guards like Brooks and Paul can carve them up. Fisher is getting old. Farmar isn’t the guy. (Good thing Kobe is more than capable of playing point guard.)

Prognosis: They are the best in the league. Bynum’s inevitable improvement will counter the inevitable decline of Derek Fisher, and anyone who thinks Artest can hurt this team is flat-out crazy. They are the team to beat.

2) San Antonio Spurs

Possibilities: Western conference finals likely. Championship? Maybe.

Problems: The aging process.

Prognosis: Awesome, awesome team that will defend as well as ever and find it much easier to score with R.J. at the 3.

3) Portland Trail Blazers

Possibilities: Western Conference Finals (WCF) possible. Championship? They got a shot.

Problems: There are two. First, they need Oden to get better in order to win big. Second, there’s the ever increasing size of each young player’s ego. Portland should consider trading off some young bench talent for a solid veteran who is willing to play a specific role.

Prognosis: Roy, Aldridge, Webster, and Oden will all improve. Considering how good this team was last year that should be enough to elevate them to 3rd best in the west. Add in Andre Miller – and his under-rated ability to lead a team – and Portland seems destined for a big step forward.

4) Denver Nuggets

Possibilities: WCF possible. Championship? They’ll need a little help.

Problems: First, there’s bench scoring. If J.R. comes off the bench, there’s no issue…but J.R. isn’t going to be happy. If JR starts, the 2nd unit has trouble scoring. Second, there’s Karl’s contract. It doesn’t take a genius to see that Karl is on his way out of Denver – are Denver’s players mature enough to keep from tuning him out despite that fact?

Prognosis: J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony, and Nene should all take a step forward this year. If Denver finds value from one of their cheap players (likely Afflalo, Balkman, or Lawson) they can go far. If not? They’re a player away from being a championship caliber team.

5) Dallas Mavericks

Possibilities: 2nd round.

Problems: Where is the center on this team? If Dallas relies upon Gooden, Dampier, and sometimes Nowitzki, rebounding is going to be tough. Defense is going to be hit or miss. Any western conference team with a scoring big man (Denver, San Antonio, L.A., and perhaps Portland) will be very tough for them.

Prognosis: Dallas has lots of talent at positions 1-4. Kidd is a great leader. Rick Carlisle knows how to make due with tough line-ups. This is a good but not great team…subject to change. I see a major trade in this team’s future.

6) New Orleans Hornets

Possibilities: 1st round, perhaps 2nd. No chance at a championship.

Problems: 1) Who is their SG? Rasual Butler was average…and they replaced him with two players who couldn’t beat him out for a starting spot last year. 2) The secret is out on Chris Paul. He doesn’t like contact, and if you take away his drive and dish the rest aren’t good enough to beat you. 3) Who’s the third option? Okafor is a slug on offense, Posey isn’t focused unless a contract is on the line, and Peja is ready for retirement. Byron Scott’s poor player development strategy will finally catch him up with him this year.

Prognosis: Following a 1st round exit, Byron Scott will be gone. There’s also a strong likelihood New Orleans blows up the team and rebuilds around Chris Paul. Okafor, David West, and Posey are all tradeable. Anyone else think David West would be good for the Bulls?

7) Utah Jazz

Possibilities: 1st round exit, 2nd round possible.

Problems: Once Boozer is traded, isn’t this team just Deron Williams, two often-injured vets (Okur and Kirilenko) and a bunch of young guys? Milsap, Brewer, and Price are exciting young pieces, but it’s hard to believe they’ll contribute at the same level as their counterparts on other good teams. Utah didn’t defend all that well last season and they didn’t play well on the road – both of which are traits of a young team.

Prognosis: IF AK 47 and Okur can be healthy then who knows. Otherwise, the Jazz are a damn good team at home and an average team on the road. They should be in the mix for the 7th or 8th seed.

8 ) Clippers

Possibilities: 1st round, but lottery possible.

Problems: They need a lot of youngsters (Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon, and Al Thornton) to play well to contend for a playoff spot. Ownership is ridiculous. The starting PG can’t stand the coach.

Prognosis: The Warriors are likely to self-destruct and there are a lot of good reasons for Sarver and Kerr to blow-up the Suns. By default, that leaves the Clippers.

The rest that won’t quite make it…

Phoenix Suns

Possibilities: Lottery, perhaps 1st round.

Problems: Steve Nash is old. The team has accepted the idea that “the championship window is closed.” The ownership is completely f$*#@d. Amare is their most important player (a recipe for failure). They don’t do defense.

Prognosis: They’re a slightly more talented version of Golden State with less depth…which means they’ve got a shot. The best move, however, would be to trade Amare at the All-Star break, hope for a good lottery pick, and then find Steve Nash a new home next summer.

Golden State Warriors

Possibilities: Lottery, perhaps 1st round.

Problems: Dysfunctional. No defense. The dysfunction: A lack of leadership, a coach who plays head games, poor ownership, and the best players (Ellis and Jackson) don’t want to be there.

Prognosis: Golden State has a good center in Biedrins, interesting options at power forward, and tremendous amounts of depth at positions 1-3. A trade for a solid veteran (Amare perhaps?) and subsequent renewed interest from Don Nelson could put this team in the playoffs.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Possibilities: Lottery, perhaps 1st round.

Problems: Youth and the lack of a real “big.”

Prognosis: Looking at this team alongside Phoenix and Golden State, it’s hard not to think they’ve got a real chance to make the playoffs. If Russel Westbrook takes a big step forward, they could definitely sneak in.

Houston Rockets

Possibilities: Lottery.

Problems: Who scores the points on this team? Brooks is solid, as are Battier, Ariza, Scola, and Landry…but none of those players can hang 30 points on you on any given night (even 20 points is a stretch).

Prognosis: If T-Mac is ever healthy, Houston would be good enough to win half of their games. Otherwise, Houston will struggle to score. Considering that the GM of this team has said they would be lucky to make the playoffs, the writing is on the wall.

Memphis Grizzlies

Possibilities: Lottery.

Problems: Only one – a meddling owner without a plan.

Prognosis: Allen Iverson surprises the league by coming off the bench, leading his team, and filling a valuable role.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Possibilities: Lottery.

Problems: None – they’re just really young.

Prognosis: Al Jefferson is an all-star. Minnesota will spoil an “easy” win for New Orleans in April.

Sacramento Kings

Possibilities: 1st overall pick in next summer’s draft.

Problems: Sacramento doesn’t want them.

Prognosis: Rafer Alston nixes a trade to Sacramento this season (if he hasn’t done so already).

First, some assumptions:

1. All the important players stay (mostly) healthy.
2. There aren’t any major trades. Obviously this will change, but when it does the rankings will be updated (if I have time).
3. When I get one or more of these predictions wrong, some lame-wad who isn’t bold enough to make his or her predictions publicly BEFORE the season will ridicule me. So be it.

In order of how they’ll finish…

1) Boston Celtics

Possibilities: Eastern Conference Finals (ECF) or NBA Finals

Problems: Father time and a need for a backup PG.

Prognosis: Boston matches up nicely with Cleveland and Orlando, not to mention LA and San Antonio. This team is better and deeper than the team that won a championship two years ago. If anyone can knock off the Lakers, the Celtics are it.

2) Orlando Magic

Possibilities: ECF or Finals

Problems: Chemistry is a question mark. Can Vince complement this team the way that Turkoglu did? Will Jameer Nelson be as effective leading the Magic as Rafer Alston was? Can all of these supremely talented players share minutes and scoring?

Prognosis: In a hard-fought series, Orlando loses to Boston.

3) Cleveland Cavaliers

Possibilities: ECF or Finals

Problems: Aging frontcourt.

Prognosis: The Cavs win a lot of regular season games, but Shaq and Big Z are too immobile to keep up with their counterparts in Boston and Orlando. After just barely missing the ECF or Finals, Lebron refuses to shake hands (again).

4) Washington Wizards

Possibilities: 2nd round.

Problems: Defense, lack of team chemistry.

Prognosis: The Wizards have a great coach, one of the best starting lineups in the conference, and a very deep bench. Look for them to shock most NBA observers and beat out Atlanta for the 4th seed.

5) Atlanta Hawks

Possibilities: 2nd round.

Problems: Maturity, lack of team leadership, coaching questions, and the fact that everyone in the East got a little better this summer.

Prognosis: Many of their young players will improve, a healthy Marvin Williams will be a nice addition, and Jamal Crawford will prove to be a suitable backup for both Bibby and Joe Johnson. However, coaching questions cast a shadow over this team and only serve to prolong Josh Smith’s chronic lack of maturity. Maybe next year.

6) Chicago Bulls

Possibilities: 1st round exit.

Problems: Chicago needs their young frontcourt to step up if they want to make any noise in the playoffs. They also need someone inside who can score.

Prognosis: The Bulls are going to take a step forward this year with the return of Luol Deng. They have good depth and they’re tough. With a little bit of luck, Chicago can snag the 4th or 5th seed and avoid Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando in the first round (but that’s not very likely).

7) Toronto Raptors

Possibilities: 1st round exit, lottery.

Problems: No defense, no toughness, poor rebounding, and questionable depth.

Prognosis: It’s going to be a tough year in Toronto. After a mediocre season and a brutal playoff exit, Bosh seems like an ideal candidate for a sign-and-trade.

8 ) Detroit Pistons

Possibilities: 1st round exit, lottery.

Problems: Poor perimeter defense, uncertainty with Rip and Tay, and a general lack of identity following the departure of Billups.

Prognosis: If Charlie V takes a step forward and Gordon accepts being a bench player, this team can do some damage. If not, they’ll be lucky to squeak into the playoffs. NOTE: All bets are off pending the likely trade(s) of Rip Hamilton and/or Tayshaun Prince.

Just barely missing the playoffs will be…

Miami Heat

Possibilites: 1st round exit, lottery.

Problems: Shaky bench, problems at the 5 position, Haslem is a backup at this stage of his career, and Beasley isn’t ready to help Wade carry the load.

Prognosis: Wade is good, but so what? This team is incredibly lacking in talent. Last season Miami won the 5th seed after going 2 games above .500. That won’t get it done this year.

Indiana Pacers

Possibilities: 1st round exit, lottery.

Problems: Youth, a mediocre point guard, and mediocre defense.

Prognosis: This is a solid young team with good pieces, but are they good enough to crack the playoffs ahead of Miami? Let’s face it – Charlotte, Indiana, Miami, Philly, and the Knicks are all pretty equal…but only one of these teams will make it into the first round.

Charlotte Bobcats

Possibilities: 1st round exit, lottery.

Problems: Like the high school chess club, the Bobcats need help scoring.

Prognosis: Great coaching, solid depth, and good defense can take you far…but not far enough. Playoff teams need individual talent too.

Philadelphia 76ers

Possibilities: 1st round exit, lottery.

Problems: They have no PG! No disrespect to Lou Williams, but he’s not a facilitator. Since Iguodala and Elton Brand can’t play in the paint at the same time, and since the team has a surprising lack of outside shooting, they’re going to struggle to score in a half-court set.

Prognosis: On the run the 76ers will kill, but in the half-court below-average defenses are going to stymie them with a simple zone. Look for Philly to ponder trading Elton Brand or Iguodala next summer.

Milwaukee Bucks

Possibilities: Lottery.

Problems: 3 of the 5 starting positions are filled with young players and/or mediocre talent. Michael Redd is 31. Bogut has yet to live up to his paycheck. Scotty Skiles (my man) will start to annoy his players.

Prognosis: Lottery bound, but don’t be surprised if it’s a squeaker (tough defenses always have a chance).

New York Knicks

Possibilities: Lottery

Problems: Not enough talent, not enough depth, no defense.

Prognosis: The only way a D’Antoni team makes the playoffs is with loads of talent. Dano Galinari is the most exciting player on the team…and he’s basically a rookie.

New Jersey Nets

Possibilities: Lottery

Problems: Youth.

Prognosis: A solid year for Courtney Lee and Brook Lopez, a great year for Devin Harris, and Yi Jianlin will be a nice surprise. Still, it won’t be enough to even sniff the playoffs. There’s a very good chance that NJ is a player for Amare at the trade deadline. If that happens, they might be a playoff team.

Seems like an innocent enough topic, doesn’t it? At first glance, I was inclined to agree. However, when I started to read the comments posted by Yardbarker readers, it became clear that this was something much more sinister than a simple “what if” scenario.

Here are some tidbits from the comments on Yardbarker and on the blog itself:

• “I thought hustle, grit, and determination are the only characteristics that white players had? ‘We he sucks at basketball, but he sure does hustle’” – a blanket and unfair generalization about whites followed by some sort of impression of “black speak” perhaps?

• “Let’s take it a step further and have the all black hockey team. Now that would be comical. I don’t know if we could have a full team but it would be funny.” Nice. Black people can’t play hockey, right?

• “It’s the same in football and baseball. Never pick a black quarterback or a black pitcher. They have no arm strength. I would like to see an all black hockey team but I would rather see an all black mathematics team. Lol. Just watch a porn movie and you’ll see why white men can’t jump.” Don’t even know where to begin with this one. This person needs to be educated.

• “wheres Obama? he is half-white and can ball” Seems sort of silly not to slander the black President when all these other people are slandering all black people…right?

• “I used to build all-white teams when I was a kid on the NBA playstation game” – Sad really. This person has been a bigot for a while now and still doesn’t know it.

First of all, it’s disheartening to know that so many people have absolutely no clue. I still (naively) cling to the belief that most people can look past race, but this is quite a bit of damning evidence to the contrary.

In my mind, discussing the benefits of an all-white basketball team is no different than discussing the benefits of an all-white country club. Both ideas are based on a single, flawed premise – that the color of our skin somehow impacts our inherent characteristics. Worse, these discussions imply other differences too. Saying that “white players are awkward” implies that “black players are smooth,” which debases a black player’s talent. A black player isn’t in the NBA because he’s just naturally gifted – it’s because he’s a damn good basketball player. He wasn’t born with some sort of magical NBA gene – he was in the gym busting his ass for more hours than you or I can imagine. That’s why he’s in the NBA – being black has nothing to do with it.

Why don’t these people understand that making fun of white players (because they’re white and therefore “not as good at basketball”) is a back-handed slap in the face to black players who worked hard to get where they are?

There’s no excuse for this sort of racism, and I think that Yardbarker should step in and block these sorts of posts in the future.

Mark Warkentien, incorrectly vilified for dumping Marcus Camby (that trade was made by owner Stan Kroenke and his crony Bret Bearup), made a clever deal trading the aging Allen Iverson for a top-10 point guard in Chauncey Billups.

This past summer, Pistons GM Joe Dumars wanted to blow up his roster. After his attempt to trade for Carmelo was rebuffed (along with a few other superstar overtures), Dumars recognized it was going to be difficult to get “equal value” for any one of his starters.

Fast forward 3 months and enter Stephon Marbury, the best point guard riding the bench in the entire NBA. The rumor is he’ll be bought out. The Nuggets are interested in signing Marbury for the rest of the season. Unlike the Miami Heat (who are also interested in Starbury), Denver still has their full mid-level exception. Advantage, Nuggets.

Mark Warkentein picks up the phone, calls Joe Dumars, and says something like:

“We’re getting ready to sign Marbury, but I figured I’d give you a call and see about Chauncey. He likes Denver, you’ve got a capable replacement in Stuckey, and Chauncey’s contract is pretty long. Why not make a deal? I need an answer today, by the way…”

Dumars, you see, was in a bit of a pickle. He *knows* that he can move Chauncey to any team in the league at any time this year or next. However, he also knows that “equal value” is difficult (if not impossible) to achieve. Getting Iverson in exchange for Billups is a fair offer, especially when you consider the salary cap benefits. Denver created a sense of urgency by threatening to sign Marbury and put this whole thing to bed. Dumars would have preferred to wait to move Billups – he wanted to get Stuckey more minutes before putting the team in his hands – but the Nuggets (and the Knicks) made that impossible.

Dumars is no dummy, mind you. Making sure the Nuggets buy out McDyess (so he can return to Detroit) was a stroke of genius.

Warkentein’s Nuggets are positioned as perfectly for the future as they could hope to be.

• They’re almost under the luxury tax. They’ll need to make one more move – say trading Steven Hunter – to create a little more room, but when the McDyess buyout is done they’ll be very close to being under the luxury tax threshold. That’s a HUGE cost benefit – not only do the Nuggets avoid a tax payment, but teams under the luxury tax also receive an escrow payment and a share of the tax paid by other teams in the league. That payment – about $5 million – goes a long way towards making a team profitable.
• They’ve still got some tools left to improve the team. They have a $10 million salary exception that doesn’t expire until after free agency begins next year and an extra first-round pick. Depending on how this season goes, you’ll either see Kroenke open his wallet again (and use these tools to bring in some depth) or Warkentein will try and move K-Mart next summer using everything he’s got.
• They’re no longer a long-shot for the playoffs this season and next. The combination of K-Mart, Melo, Chauncey, and J.R. Smith is enough to threaten most teams in the league any given night, and if Nene emerges to be the player everyone hopes he can be, they’ll have most of what a championship team needs. Of course, they’ll have to learn how to play team defense, but that’s another discussion.
• Denver has few salary commitments past 2010-2011 season. They’re not going to be shopping during the “summer of Lebron,” but they’re going to have the funds to play in free agency about the same time that Melo hits 27 – arguably his prime.

Here are the downsides to this trade (from a GM’s perspective):

• Kleiza is probably leaving. There’s simply no way the Nuggets can afford to hold onto Linas Kleiza without exceeding the luxury tax next season. Unless the Nuggets can finally hit their stride and make it past the first round, owner Stan Kroenke is not going to pay to keep Linas.
• Denver can’t add depth. For the same reasons that Linas Kleiza may not be a Nugget next season, Denver can’t afford to hire any solid role players without exceeding the luxury tax threshold.
• Kenyon Martin is still a Nugget. While this doesn’t really have anything to do with the Billups-Iverson trade, the fact remains that the Nuggets are still saddled with one of the league’s worst contracts. If only Kenyon could have been included in the Billups deal…

Mark Warkentien is a good GM – that’s why the Knicks were looking at hiring him this past summer. If only Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke gave Warkentien complete control (see the Marcus Camby give-away).

1. The Boston Celtics bench is no longer a weak point. Leon Powe, Glen Davis, and Eddie House have all proven that they can provide meaningful minutes. Add in Posey (a guy that’s good enough to start on a lot of teams in the league), and savvy vets Sam Cassell and PJ Brown, and you have a team that’s deep enough to go all the way. Kudos to Danny Ainge for acquiring those two vets, and kudos to Doc Rivers for bringing along the younger guys.

2. Rajon Rondo is still the weakest starter on the team, but his shortcomings will be minimized as long as Cassell is available off the bench. Rondo’s game is highly dependent on getting in the lane (something elite teams do a great job of stopping). Take that away from him and it throws off his rythym – offensively and defensively. Lucky for Boston, they’ve got a fantastic point guard coming off the bench in Sam Cassell, so it won’t be an issue.

3. Doc Rivers might cost Boston a championship. It’s clear to most observers that Doc can’t coach at an elite level. He doesn’t understand late-game management, and he has trouble understanding and exploiting match-ups. See games 3,4, and 6 of the Hawks series. Don’t get me wrong – Boston might be able to overcome their coaching handicap. Still, I think every remaining team in the playoffs has a better coach than Rivers.

4. The Celtics have trouble with teams that play at a fast pace with a lot of athleticism. Luckily, they won’t face any more teams like that this year, at least not until the NBA finals (if they make it that far).

5. The Celtics team chemistry is as good as any. A lot of commentators talk about the fact that Boston hasn’t played together enough to win it all, but I think that’s wrong. Look at the way the team has pulled together in tough games all year – they’ve got plenty of chemistry to go all the way.

6. Lebron James is going to give Boston fits. Imagine a stronger, faster, and more capable version of Joe Johnson tear-assing through the Celtic’s defense. Lebron is going to single-handedly terrorize the Celtics defense. Will his supporting cast be enough to put his team over the top? I don’t think so, but it will definitely be close.

7. Detroit controls Boston’s future. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – Detroit is a better team than Boston. But will Detroit play like the better team in the conference championship? If every Detroit Piston is focused, and I mean totally focused, Detroit’s superior point guard play, bench depth, coaching, and experience should prevail. Boston’s bench is good now, but I’d still take the “zoo crew” over them. Having said that, Detroit did collapse last year against Cleveland. It’s going to be a great series…

I like Boston’s chances of reaching the NBA championship – I’d say it’s an even money bet.

1 . Your average NBA fan doesn’t understand the game.

Unless you’re watching the Lakers or the Knicks play, you rarely hear a home crowd boo their own team. Why? Because in most cities, the fans don’t know what to expect from their team. When the Lakers or the Knicks blow a lead, give up consecutive offensive rebounds, or miss an easy shot, their fans let them have it. These things are caused by laziness. These things are caused by stupidity. These things are unacceptable. When was the last time you booed your team for doing something stupid or lazy? Maybe you haven’t booed them because you don’t know how the game is played.

2 . NBA fans are drunk.

Attend any game at any arena in America and you’ll find beer. Lots of beer. Some arenas even serve shots and mixed drinks. I’ve got nothing against enjoying alcohol, but there’s something about public events that encourages the average fan to over imbibe. Drunkeness is only enjoyable for drunk people – everyone else is irritated.

3 . NBA fans imagine they’re important.

This one really gets me – people saying “WE DID IT!” after their team wins. WTF? Really? “We” did it? What exactly did you do? Was it that order of nachos that pushed your team over the top, or was it that time you high-fived the guy next to you when so-and-so hit a shot? Unless you’re working out one of your team’s players in practice, you can shut the hell up about this “we did it” business.

4 . NBA fans only participate when their team wins.

Remember when the Pacers were good? That stadium was full every game (about 20k people). This season, Indiana has the league’s lowest attendance figures (about 12k a game). Did 8,000 game ticket buying Pacers fans die in the last 4 years? No. The answer is that those Pacer fans are busy buying Celtics jerseys and talking about how they’ve been a Celtics fan since Bird joined the team in 1980 whatever. Ya right.

5. The “I could have made that play” BS.

You’re watching the game with your friends and your team blows a layup. Somebody quips “I COULD HAVE MADE THAT ONE!!”. Really?! Shut the #@% UP. You can’t even run the length of the court three times. Next time you (or someone you know) starts to utter that phrase, I want you to stop and say “these men are elite athletes – I am a couch potato.” Keep saying it until you believe it, or until your pizza shows up. Fat ass.

Here’s why NY and LA NBA fans are better:

Every year, regardless of the team, regardless of the record, NY and LA enjoy full or nearly full arenas. Just because the team isn’t playing well doesn’t mean fans aren’t buying tickets. NY and LA fans will also boo their team when they’re playing poorly, something I have yet to see in another arena (at least consistently). Finally, and perhaps most importantly, your average run-of-the-mill moron can’t afford to buy tickets to a Lakers or Knicks game. When you keep those people out, the “we did it” mob mentality doesn’t grab hold like it does in a lot of the cheaper arenas in the country.

I hope that I made you laugh. I also hope that I made you think. I really hope I pissed some people off. The truth is that just about everyone has done one or more of these things themselves. You can be mad, you can argue with me and say “my team’s fans are better because blah blah blah”, or you can stop sucking as a fan. Read more. Listen more than you talk. Crack a book sometime in the off-season and learn how the game is played. Get out on the court and run some suicides, do a rebounding drill, and try making a 23 foot jumper. Then maybe you’ll appreciate the game for what it is – the greatest game on the planet.