1. Confirming the existence of the list hurts Bosh’s image with Toronto’s fans. The fact that a list officially exists hurts Bosh’s standing with fans. Colangelo wouldn’t do that to his star player unless he felt like his chances of staying in Toronto were slim.

2. Colangelo is starting the sign-and-trade ball rolling. Now that NBA GM’s are aware Bosh can be had, it’s time for them to start calling Toronto and making a pitch to Colangelo. Obviously, the final move is up to Chris Bosh…but if someone calls and offers a superstar to Toronto to try and acquire Bosh, that’s going to help set the value for a sign-and-trade. The next question is…

Where Is Bosh Headed?

Here are the four teams Bosh supposedly wants to play for next year and my estimation of their chances of trading for him.

Chicago – Unless they’re willing to part with Joakim Noah, I think the other teams on this list can make a better offer. I suppose that Bosh could try and force his way to Chicago, but the best move for everyone is to work together. Without giving up Noah, the best players Chicago can offer are Hinrich (who Toronto doesn’t need), Deng (overpaid and also a guy Toronto doesn’t need), and then a nice inexpensive young PF (Gibson or Johnson). Granted, Chicago can throw some picks at Toronto, but so can most of the teams on this list.

Lakers – This one makes a hell of a lot of sense if the rumors of Bynum’s availability are true. Bynum for Bosh is as close to a win-win as Toronto can get. Having said that, if the Lakers win the championship, why would they change their team? If the Lakers want to offer Bynum, they’ll have the best offer on the table.

Miami – Miami’s chances are better than Chicago, but they’re still sort of slim. Miami’s best trade pieces are Beasley and draft picks (including the 18th pick this summer). Miami shouldn’t be counted out – Beasley isn’t a bad return on Bosh – but it’s going to take pressure from Bosh to make this happen.

By the way – I could see Toronto packaging Calderon with Bosh if Miami gets involved…but Miami is going to have to sacrifice their draft picks for the next few years to get it done.

New York – The Knicks seem like a long shot to land Bosh in a sign and trade. Not only are they division rivals, but they don’t have a lot of talent they can send back. They’ve also given most of their draft picks away. One interesting wrinkle, however, could be trading both Bosh and Turkoglu for Curry and Gallinari.

• If I’m running things in Toronto, the opportunity to dump Turk would be tempting, especially if I got a cheap young player of equivalent talent in return. Curry might actually be able to help Toronto, but if he can’t, it’s a small price to pay to be out from under Turk’s ridiculous deal.
• If I’m running things in New York, I look at this deal because it helps me convince Joe Johnson to come to the Big Apple. Turk is overpaid for sure, but he’s also a mis-match SF who can help open up the middle.

In any case, I think the market for Bosh hinges on how the Lakers play in the Finals. If Gasol exhibits some new-found toughness, L.A. will consider sliding him over to center and bringing in Bosh. If not, it’s going to be hard to give up on Bynum…unless of course L.A. tanks against Boston, but I don’t think that will happen.

Cleveland – My personal favorite, A.I. and Lebron could play together in a way that Melo and A.I. never will. Lebron is a much better 3pt shooter and passer than Melo, opening up a lot more scoring opportunities for A.I. (and the rest of the Cavs) that simply don’t exist in Denver. Additionally, if Cleveland had A.I., their offense wouldn’t grind to a halt when Lebron went to the bench. Finally, A.I.’s defensive liabilities won’t be as significant in Cleveland as they are in Denver. Denver would gladly take Delonte West back as their PG of the future, and Cleveland has some attractive expiring contracts. Cleveland throws in a late first round pick and we’ve got enough to make a deal.

The Knicks – Anyone else think that A.I. would thrive in D’Antoni’s system? The Knicks have no use for young bigs David Lee and Renaldo Balkman (who can’t shoot well enough to play for D’Antoni), whereas Denver could put both of these players to good use. Throw in Malik Rose’s expiring contract and Denver walks away from A.I. with salary cap relief and a couple of decent young players to show for their trouble.

Orlando – Playing Jameer Nelson and A.I. in the same backcourt would be rough defensively, but think of the offensive pressure you could put on teams with A.I. driving and dishing to either Dwight Howard or Rashard Lewis. Denver could get back Carlos Arroyo and address their point guard problem, and they might even be able to snag Torkoglu. With Torkoglu gone, Rashard Lewis moves back to SF (where he’s more lethal), and Orlando is just a legit PF away from making a championship run.

Toronto – Surround A.I. with shooters and see what happens – I guarantee he puts the fear of God in opposing defenses. A.I. would pack the fans in every night in Toronto, and adding him would demonstrate to Chris Bosh just how serious Toronto is about winning. Toronto could probably unload TJ Ford on Denver, something they would have to seriously consider. Besides, what’s the down side? This team isn’t going to get much better as currently constructed.

What kind of money does it take to get A.I. under a sign and trade? I’d say $10-12 million a year for three years gets it done. While A.I. stands to make about $21 million next year, his financial future is a little murky after that. First of all, you can figure that whatever team signs A.I. to a 3 year contract in 2009 (the league requires at least a 3 year deal for any veteran) will only guarantee the first year or two. Guaranteeing all three years would be asking a team to pay a 36 year old Iverson, and that doesn’t make much sense. What’s the money for A.I. next year? Could be as high as $8 million for two years, could be as low as the mid-level exception for three. So, his future earnings following next season range from $10 to $18 million. That’s a total of $31 to $39 million, with a substantial amount of risk involved for A.I. if things don’t go his way.

Next, A.I.’s got to evaluate the risk of getting hurt next season. If, God forbid, Iverson suffered a major injury, his career is probably over. Why not play it safe and lock up some more money now? A.I.’s no dummy – he knows as well as anyone just how much he risks injury with his playing style. It’s a testament to his greatness that he hasn’t already suffered a career-ending injury.

The Bottom Line: The smart money is to lock in $30-36 million for the next three years rather than make $21 million next season and hope for the best next summer. A.I.’s people have basically admitted as much, saying that A.I. wants to mimic Vince Carter’s contract renewal last season. Of course, if A.I. wants $10-12 million a year for the next three years, he’s going to need Denver’s help with a sign and trade. There’s no way it happens via free agency.