1. Phoenix can win almost as many games without Amare as they can with him. If you saw Phoenix and Dallas play last Thursday, you know that Phoenix has a bunch of scrappy young athletic bigs that can shoot and finish. I’m not saying they’re better without Amare – no chance – but they’re not much worse is he leaves town.
2. Phoenix could lose Amare this summer for nothing.
3. Phoenix can’t afford Amare if he decides not to opt out. Phoenix needs Amare off the books this summer if they want to make some moves and make their team better without going over the luxury cap.
4. Phoenix can still get under the luxury cap. If Phoenix can trade for a talented young PF while also reducing salary by about $3 million (possible), they might consider trading Channing Frye to a team with a trade exception (hello Nuggets!) to get under the cap. This would be HUGE financially.

Here’s the trick for Phoenix: whatever move Phoenix makes, it has to be viewed as part of a bigger plan to get better. If Steve Nash decides Phoenix is throwing in the towel and asks for a trade, Phoenix becomes a less talented version of the Golden State Warriors. Here are the possibilities:

Amare To Chicago

Chicago can offer Phoenix a great package in terms of talent: Hinrich & Tyrus Thomas for Amare would make Phoenix deeper, allow J-Rich to move to SF, and give Phoenix a reasonable way to rest Nash while Dragic rounds into form. I’d also guess that T.Thomas would look good playing next to Steve Nash (sort of like a young Amare).

However, I don’t think Chicago is interested in trading for Amare right now. Unless it becomes clear to Chicago that they have no chance of signing D-Wade or Bosh this summer, I think they’ll sit on their hands and see what happens. Chicago can always bid on Amare this summer.

Besides, Chicago has been playing well lately. Why break-up a team that might sneak into the 2nd round?

Amare to NJ

The Nets have the right combo for Phoenix: Yi Jianlin (good young talent), expiring contracts, a first round draft pick, and a way to move Phoenix out of the luxury tax this season.

Why it works for Phoenix:

• Yi’s potential is something Phoenix can probably sell to fans and Steve Nash
• A trade of Yi, Battie, and Simmons for Amare and Jarron Collins saves Phoenix $3.8 million in salary. Phoenix could then dump Frye OR pay someone to take Dooling off their hands and get out of tax territory.

Why it works for NJ:

• Bosh, Lebron, and D-Wade aren’t even going to consider NJ if they finish with the worst record of all time. Amare is the consolation prize (and not a bad one at that).
• If NJ trades for Amare and he opts out, NJ is still the most likely to sign him.
• NJ has enough cap space to extend Amare and still be a player in free agency this summer.
• Trading for Amare is the easiest way to end the nightmare for NJ’s fans. He would help them win enough games to avoid the worst record of all time, yet not so many that they would wreck their chances at the 1st overall draft pick.

Amare to Miami

Miami is a long-shot to land Amare simply because they won’t part with Beasley, they don’t have “extra” draft picks sitting around like NJ, and they can’t make a deal that saves Phoenix a lot of money. Trading for Amare would also mean that Miami losses any hope of signing Bosh this summer.

Miami is going to wait for a shot at signing Bosh, and they should.

Amare to Cleveland

Cleveland might offer Phoenix Big-Z and JJ Hickson + filler and a very late first-round pick…but this probably won’t happen.

• This deal isn’t that great for Phoenix – they can probably do better in terms of talent.
• Cleveland is taking an awful risk. If Amare doesn’t opt out, Cleveland won’t be able to take a run at Chris Bosh.
• Cleveland doesn’t need to make a change right now. They’re arguably the best or 2nd best team in the league.

Amare to Golden State

Who knows on this one. Nellie is irrational, the Warriors don’t have a long-term plan, and it’s impossible to read the management in Golden State. However, Phoenix would be hard-pressed to turn down a package that included Biedrins, one of Golden State’s talented youngsters, a draft pick, and a possible reunion with Raja Bell. If Golden State wants Amare, they can get him…but there’s no clear indication that they really want him.

Still, it must be said that Amar’e can flat-out ball. The guy has moves, an excellent mid-range game, and he can finish. If the Suns really are interested in moving Amar’e for a combination of youth and expiring contracts (as the report on Yahoo suggested), there are only a handful of teams that have a legit opportunity to land Amar’e.

It’s important to remember that whoever trades for Amar’e has to believe they can keep him beyond his opt-out in 2010, so you can scratch small market teams off the list. You can also cross all Western conference teams off the list of trade partners. Phoenix isn’t looking to improve any of their rivals.

In the east, Cleveland is out (they have no youth to trade back).  Detroit is possible, but a package of Rasheed Wallace, Jason Maxiell, and a couple of draft picks would be hard for Steve Kerr to explain. New York is also a possibility, but they also lack youth (only David Lee would interest the Suns.) There’s also  a lot of bad blood between Phoenix, D’Antoni, and Amar’e.

I believe you can cross every Eastern Conference team off the list except for one – Chicago. A trade of Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, and Drew Gooden for Amar’e, Tucker, and Amundson makes sense for both sides – here’s why:

Chicago gains a running mate for Derrick Rose. Amar’e can be the number one option on offense in Chicago, meaning he’s a lot more likely to be happy. Losing Deng and T.T. hurts of course, but Amar’e isn’t going to come free. Besides, shipping Deng off to Phoenix helps bring Chicago’s roster a little more into balance. With Deng gone, Chicago wouldn’t have to feel bad about paying Nocioni starter’s money (because he would be starting).  The bottom line for Chicago – Rose and Amar’e can do some real damage in the East, no question. With Ben Gordon and Nocioni filling up the rim from outside, Hinrich coming off the bench, and Noah being big and burly in the middle, Chicago could have the talent to compete for a championship.

For Phoenix, the opportunity to add TWO solid young players is too much to pass by. Not to mention the fact that Drew Gooden can step in and start right next to Shaq and compliment him defensively (Gooden won’t set the world on fire, but he’ll rebound and defend better than Amar’e). Adding Deng to the starting rotation in Phoenix softens the blow that will come from losing Amar’e's offense, and it also allows Grant Hill to come off the bench so he’ll be fresh for the playoffs. If Phoenix is lucky, Tyrus Thomas someday matures into “Amar’e Light.”

For Phoenix, this deal keeps the championship dream alive while also buidling for the future. For Chicago, adding Stoudemire all but gaurantees a playoff appearance this year.

However, the best part of this deal is that both sides will firmly believe they completely screwed the other. Chicago will brag about dumping over-paid and under-achieving Deng and the inconsistent Thomas for an all-star, and Phoenix will gush about the fact that they dumped a malcontent forward who couldn’t guard a phone booth for two up-and-coming stars.

The key to a good trade, you see, is when both sides think they completely took advantage of the other. If Amar’e gets traded in 2009, my guess is that he’s headed to Chicago for Deng and Thomas.

Part of the problem might be the “been there, done that” feel the regular season must have for the Suns. They have demolished teams in the regular season for the past 3 years, but they kept coming up short in the playoffs. Maybe they’re thinking the regular season isn’t too important. Of course I’ve heard all the talk about Phoenix wanting the number one seed, but their effort on the court seems to suggest otherwise. Most games, they don’t play any defense or bother with boxing anyone out. Granted, the Suns have never played much defense, but they seem to have taken it to another, lower level this season. Phoenix still wins most nights because of their offense, but unless they rebound and play some defense they will drop their share of games and miss the number one seed.

A second reason that Phoenix is under-achieving might be a weaker home crowd. Phoenix might be 9-3 at home, but the three or four home games I have seen haven’t had the same atmosphere as in the past. Similar to a New England Patriots’ crowd, Phoenix fans seem to be used to the winning. Amare’s thundering dunks and Nash and Bell’s three pointers don’t seem to get the crowd as excited as they did in the past.

These first two problems ultimately shouldn’t cost the Suns much in the playoffs – the crowd will get into the games and the team as a whole will play better defense. The biggest problem with the Suns is their lack of a tough low post defender. The Suns gave away Kurt Thomas in the offseason in order to avoid the luxury tax, and while this move saved Suns’ owner Robert Sarver a few million dollars, it may ultimately cost the Suns an NBA Championship. This was most evident in the Suns loss to the Lakers. Andrew Bynum killed the Suns offensively and on the boards. The Suns, of course, had no problem scoring, but they gave up 122 points and Bynum must have had 8 or 9 dunks. Amare is a great player, and for the most part he plays hard defensively. But he’s not good enough to defend a post player on his own – he needs some help. Kurt Thomas could have been that player, but there are other defensive power forwards out there. P.J. Brown could be had for very little. If the Suns are willing to spend a little money, they could easily address this need. Unfortunately for Suns fans, I don’t think they will. Good luck against San Antonio.

1) Phoenix Suns – With all the angst from last season, these guys have got a big chip on their shoulder that should translate to the best record in the league.

2) Dallas Mavericks – Just because they bombed out of the first round last year doesn’t mean they won’t be a force in the regular season. There’s nothing wrong with this team.

3) San Antonio Spurs – Every year I think “these guys are too old”, but they just keep getting it done. As long as Duncan and Parker are healthy, they’re the team to beat.

4) Denver Nuggets – The Nuggets will beat out the Jazz for the best record in the Northwest division. They’ve got an easy schedule through December, and they’ll finish strong as usual.

5) Utah Jazz – The Jazz had an interesting off-season that will impact their regular season performance, but they should manage to stay very close to Denver for the division lead.

6) Houston Rockets – Adelman’s clever offensive scheme will make Yao Ming the best player in the west (at least on paper), but there will be a learning curve.

7) Golden State Warriors – Assuming Baron Davis is healthy, Warriors run-and-gun basketball will challenge every team they play in the regular season.

8 ) Memphis Grizzlies – Pau Gasol can be a dominant player when healthy, and this team has a enough talent to make a grab for the last spot in the playoffs.

While I’m not going to predict how these seeds will perform in the playoffs until we get closer, I will officially declare my favorite to win the Western Conference. (drum roll…)

Phoenix. The Suns have everything they need to win, and they won’t be denied this year because of questionable calls. While I’m at it, I’ll go ahead and say that Phoenix will also be the NBA champ in the upcoming season.

Also, my pick for last place in the Western conference goes to the Sonics. Between the lack of veteran talent, the lack of defense, and the ownership’s bid to move the team, anything more than a terrible season is wishful thinking.

Steve Nash can’t be too happy. With two or three years of dominant play left in his creaky body, Nash had to be salivating at the idea of playing along side Kevin Garnett. In terms of offensive skills KG and Amare are pretty comparable with Amare perhaps holding a slight edge. I say perhaps because while Amare has become a dominant offensive forward, he has had the overwhelming advantage of playing with Steve Nash. Sorry Troy Hudson. That said, KG is clearly the superior defensive player and overall leader. KG is the better all around player and a hall of famer.

The deal should have been done. If Kevin McHale was willing to take Al Jefferson, he had to be willing to take Amare, the Suns two number one picks, and role players. Steve Kerr, on the hand, did have a dilemma. Kerr is justified in thinking that the Suns can win a title without KG while holding onto a young franchise forward in Amare Stoudemire. The Suns arguably got jobbed in their second round series against the Spurs. If that series had turned out differently, the KG to Phoenix rumors would never have started. KG’s salary also would have pushed the Suns into luxury tax land. Suns owner Robert Sarver was not about to let that happen.

The problem is the Suns did not win the title last year and KG would have improved the Suns. You can’t tell me that a Nash, KG, Marion combo would not be the overwhelming favorites to win the Finals.

Okay, so no KG, but did the Suns find a backup point guard? No. Marcus Banks returns with Leandro Barbosa. As great a player as Nash is, he is getting old and needs some rest. Banks is just horrible and never will be any good. I don’t care if he averages 40 points a game in the summer league. I do like Barbosa, but he needs to be a starter and he looks more comfortable at the 2. All Nash needs is a steady backup point guard who can give him extended periods of rest in the regular season and perhaps 5-10 minutes a game in the playoffs.

Thirdly, after months of trade talk, Shawn Marion is back with the team. You have to wonder how the trade talks affected him. Marion wants to be the star but has been overtaken the last few years by Nash and Amare. When asked about the trade rumors, he has been saying all the right things, but you have to wonder how upset he really is. Marion needs to be at the top of his game for the Suns to have a chance at upending the Spurs and Jazz.

With all that said, I still like Phoenix’s chances in the West. They will battle with Utah, San Antonio and Dallas for the West. Depending on playoff seeding and perhaps a little luck, the Suns could win the title next season. I just think they could have separated themselves from the pack with the KG trade and the addition of a couple of role players. I hope Steve Nash gets a ring, but Suns management hasn’t made things any easier for him.