No Blood No Foul

OK OK – so I’ve never met the guy. The best I can do is read what sports writers and columnists write. Still, I can read between the lines: Mark Warkentein, the acting GM of the Nuggets, pulled off a fantastic move – he traded an aging superstar for a top-10 point guard (the most important position in the game), a young 7 footer, and luxury tax relief. Here’s my impression of how this deal went down:

Mark Warkentien, incorrectly vilified for dumping Marcus Camby (that trade was made by owner Stan Kroenke and his crony Bret Bearup), made a clever deal trading the aging Allen Iverson for a top-10 point guard in Chauncey Billups.

This past summer, Pistons GM Joe Dumars wanted to blow up his roster. After his attempt to trade for Carmelo was rebuffed (along with a few other superstar overtures), Dumars recognized it was going to be difficult to get “equal value” for any one of his starters.

Fast forward 3 months and enter Stephon Marbury, the best point guard riding the bench in the entire NBA. The rumor is he’ll be bought out. The Nuggets are interested in signing Marbury for the rest of the season. Unlike the Miami Heat (who are also interested in Starbury), Denver still has their full mid-level exception. Advantage, Nuggets.

Mark Warkentein picks up the phone, calls Joe Dumars, and says something like:

“We’re getting ready to sign Marbury, but I figured I’d give you a call and see about Chauncey. He likes Denver, you’ve got a capable replacement in Stuckey, and Chauncey’s contract is pretty long. Why not make a deal? I need an answer today, by the way…”

Dumars, you see, was in a bit of a pickle. He *knows* that he can move Chauncey to any team in the league at any time this year or next. However, he also knows that “equal value” is difficult (if not impossible) to achieve. Getting Iverson in exchange for Billups is a fair offer, especially when you consider the salary cap benefits. Denver created a sense of urgency by threatening to sign Marbury and put this whole thing to bed. Dumars would have preferred to wait to move Billups – he wanted to get Stuckey more minutes before putting the team in his hands – but the Nuggets (and the Knicks) made that impossible.

Dumars is no dummy, mind you. Making sure the Nuggets buy out McDyess (so he can return to Detroit) was a stroke of genius.

Warkentein’s Nuggets are positioned as perfectly for the future as they could hope to be.

• They’re almost under the luxury tax. They’ll need to make one more move – say trading Steven Hunter – to create a little more room, but when the McDyess buyout is done they’ll be very close to being under the luxury tax threshold. That’s a HUGE cost benefit – not only do the Nuggets avoid a tax payment, but teams under the luxury tax also receive an escrow payment and a share of the tax paid by other teams in the league. That payment – about $5 million – goes a long way towards making a team profitable.
• They’ve still got some tools left to improve the team. They have a $10 million salary exception that doesn’t expire until after free agency begins next year and an extra first-round pick. Depending on how this season goes, you’ll either see Kroenke open his wallet again (and use these tools to bring in some depth) or Warkentein will try and move K-Mart next summer using everything he’s got.
• They’re no longer a long-shot for the playoffs this season and next. The combination of K-Mart, Melo, Chauncey, and J.R. Smith is enough to threaten most teams in the league any given night, and if Nene emerges to be the player everyone hopes he can be, they’ll have most of what a championship team needs. Of course, they’ll have to learn how to play team defense, but that’s another discussion.
• Denver has few salary commitments past 2010-2011 season. They’re not going to be shopping during the “summer of Lebron,” but they’re going to have the funds to play in free agency about the same time that Melo hits 27 – arguably his prime.

Here are the downsides to this trade (from a GM’s perspective):

• Kleiza is probably leaving. There’s simply no way the Nuggets can afford to hold onto Linas Kleiza without exceeding the luxury tax next season. Unless the Nuggets can finally hit their stride and make it past the first round, owner Stan Kroenke is not going to pay to keep Linas.
• Denver can’t add depth. For the same reasons that Linas Kleiza may not be a Nugget next season, Denver can’t afford to hire any solid role players without exceeding the luxury tax threshold.
• Kenyon Martin is still a Nugget. While this doesn’t really have anything to do with the Billups-Iverson trade, the fact remains that the Nuggets are still saddled with one of the league’s worst contracts. If only Kenyon could have been included in the Billups deal…

Mark Warkentien is a good GM – that’s why the Knicks were looking at hiring him this past summer. If only Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke gave Warkentien complete control (see the Marcus Camby give-away).

It’s tantamount to heresy to say this in the Mile High city, but the Nuggets might actually be a better basketball team without Marcus Camby. Here’s why:

1) Camby’s shot selection. As much as I loved watching Camby put the ball over his shoulder and taking a 25 footer, I can say that many of his shots were ill-advised. While he definitely was able to knock some down, Camby took 11.6 shots per game. That’s 2.5 more shots than J.R. Smith, 5 more shots than Anthony Carter (who shot nearly 46% last season), and only 8 fewer shot attempts than Carmelo. That’s not really appropriate for a guy with such an awkward stroke.

2) Camby’s attitude. Camby earned the nickname “touches” while playing for the Nuggets. According to sports writers that followed the team, Camby demanded that plays be ran for him. When he didn’t get his way, Camby’s defensive and rebounding fell off.

3) Low post defense. Camby, slight for his size, is physically incapable of pushing most 4′s and 5′s out of the low post. Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, neither of whom is known for being overly physical, both moved Camby around at will during the playoffs. While Nene is not the rebounder that Camby is, his low-post defense stymied Tim Duncan in the playoffs two years ago. If Nene is healthy, the Nuggets post defense is improved.

4) Camby over-handled the ball. In addition to taking quite a few shots (some bad), Camby also regularly walked the ball up the court. Evidently, Camby envisioned himself as some sort of point guard. Too bad Denver’s fast-break offense is better served by Camby running without the ball.

5) Camby’s shot blocking is over-rated. First of all, Marcus is the first to admit that he wouldn’t block as many shots if he played on a team with better perimeter defense. If Denver’s perimeter defense improves (and it couldn’t get much worse) Camby’s shot blocking would be diminished. Secondly, shot blocking doesn’t always result in a change of possession. About half the time (I don’t have stats unfortunately), Camby’s blocked shots went out of bounds. To be sure, blocked shots effect the confidence of the opposing players. Yet shots blocked out of bounds reset the shot clock to 14 seconds, sometimes giving the opposition an extra possession.

6) Camby is playing on borrowed time. Camby’s injury history all but guarantees he’ll miss 20-30 games this coming season. Why not let him miss those games in L.A.?

Here’s how the math works out in my mind.

1. Camby generated extra possessions by snagging rebounds and blocking shots. 4 or 5 rebounds above average plus 3 blocked shots equals an extra 8 possessions per game? +8
2. Camby reduced Nuggets possessions by taking too many shots and over-handling the ball. At least 2 bad shots and/or fast break possessions lost, and probably more like 4. -3
3. Camby’s inadequate low post defense and below average interior physical presence resulted in easy layups for opposing bigs at least once per half, if not much more (like in the playoffs). -2

My crude math says that Camby’s presence only worked out to an extra 3 or 4 possessions per game. Factor in Marcus’s “touches” attitude (and the impact that had on the team) and it’s possible to say that Denver is no worse without him. They might even be better.

Now that we know Denver must trade Allen Iverson, here’s a list of potential ‘sign-and-trade’ opportunities:

Cleveland – My personal favorite, A.I. and Lebron could play together in a way that Melo and A.I. never will. Lebron is a much better 3pt shooter and passer than Melo, opening up a lot more scoring opportunities for A.I. (and the rest of the Cavs) that simply don’t exist in Denver. Additionally, if Cleveland had A.I., their offense wouldn’t grind to a halt when Lebron went to the bench. Finally, A.I.’s defensive liabilities won’t be as significant in Cleveland as they are in Denver. Denver would gladly take Delonte West back as their PG of the future, and Cleveland has some attractive expiring contracts. Cleveland throws in a late first round pick and we’ve got enough to make a deal.

The Knicks – Anyone else think that A.I. would thrive in D’Antoni’s system? (more…)

It’s a shame that Iverson – one of the greatest small guards to ever play the game (if not THE greatest) – has to leave Denver. The, however, writing is on the wall – the Melo – A.I. experiment has failed. Here’s why Denver’s got to trade A.I.:

1) Denver risks losing Iverson for nothing if they don’t trade him. The argument here is simple – keep Iverson, and you risk him leaving for nothing this time next year. It’s just good business to trade players in their last season.

2) Iverson’s defense is holding Denver back. Don’t get me wrong – I’m not saying that Iverson is the problem on defense. The truth is, even without Iverson, there are a lot of guys that need to improve defensively (cough – MELO -  cough). However, Iverson’s defensive risk taking and lack of focus give the Nuggets opponents a lot of opportunities. While his scoring will be missed, just about anyone can replace him and improve the Nuggets defensively. (more…)

The Denver Nuggets have the honor of being the only second 50 win team in the history of the NBA to be swept in the first round of the playoffs (since the best of seven format began). Here’s what went wrong:

> Bad defensive habits.

The much-maligned Nuggets defense improved in the last year, but not enough to overcome their chronic lack of focus. The Nuggets spent just as much time this season playing bad defense as they did playing good defense. They often played to the level of their competition – like beating a tough San Antonio team twice in Denver, then losing a “must win” game to a young Seattle team during the last week of the season.

> Melo’s lack of maturity.

Carmelo is a tremendous scorer, and he’s becoming an excellent passer and a solid rebounder. Unfortunately, he’s yet to develop into a leader. His meltdown after game 3 in the Lakers-Nuggets series underscored his biggest problem – his lack of maturity. He doesn’t understand that his individual defensive efforts would translate to better team defense. Not to mention his DUI that came the week before the playoffs. He’s the best player – he needs to set the tone.

> Chemistry. (more…)

I’m a baaaad Nuggets fan. I don’t focus on the things they do well – transition offense, creating turnovers, their ever-improving inside-out game, their ability to play through injuries, or the fact that on any given night they can beat any team in the NBA. Instead, I focus on the fact the Nuggets are lazy (like the dog in the picture).

They’re not playing defense (at least not consistently). Every game I see them take a play or a series of plays off – I’ve even seen them take entire quarters off. Not a game goes by that I don’t see the Nuggets fail to challenge a shooter. It’s sickening – all it takes is a little effort to run out and put a hand in someone’s face, yet no one moves. That’s the definition of bad perimeter defense. Local beat writers are finally starting to pick up on this – according to the Denver Post, the Nuggets win more games when they defend the 3pt line than when they don’t. Too bad I’ve been lambasting the Nuggets for this since before the season started.

They’re not running enough. Running creates a lot of easy points, puts pressure on opposing defenses, and (more…)