No Blood No Foul

Linas Kleiza should be relishing this time – it’s exciting to be competing in the playoffs, especially when your team looks like it can make it all the way to the Conference Finals. Playing with Chauncey and K-Mart in their primes, with a surging Nene, a strong Melo, and a surprisingly potent bench in Carter and Anderson, Kleiza has got to be loving life.

Unfortunately, these days will be over soon. Kleiza’s days as a Nugget are coming to a close. The reasons?

• Chris Anderson – The Bird Man is playing out of his mind, and Denver’s only option will be to resign him. If Anderson continues to put up tremendous performances in playoff games, he might just demand the full mid-level. My guess is that Denver pays Anderson $10-12 million on a fully guaranteed 3 year deal. Considering how close the Nuggets are to exceeding the luxury tax threshold without Anderson’s new contract, Anderson’s gain is Kleiza’s loss.

• Kleiza has been over-hyped by his coach. Karl loves to talk about how versatile and dangerous L.K. can be, yet most of us haven’t seen it in this season. Sure, in years past L.K.’s presence was instrumental (Melo’s 15 game suspension back in the 06-07 season, subbing for K-Mart and Nene on and off for the last 3 seasons, etc.), but this year George Karl raised expectations for L.K. so much that he was bound to dissapoint. (more…)

All the talking heads and analysts have already said the Nuggets win the series, and I think that’s likely as well. Denver simply has too much to overcome the Mavs:

• Billups vs. Kidd – This will come down to Billups being able to score in transition. Kidd is slow, and if he’s out of position because he’s trying to pull down a rebound, Billups is going to get an easy look. Since Billups matches Kidd in terms of playmaking, and since Kidd’s offense is pretty poor, Kidd needs to keep Billups from scoring a lot (like he did tonight) to win the matchup. Billups is the guy in this series, but it’s going to be close. (more…)

I’m a big fan of Hoopsworld.com and my “friendly neighborhood columnist” Travis Heath. Travis has mentioned a few times that the Nuggets might be able to get David Lee from New York for two 1st round picks and Linas Kleiza.

Seems reasonable enough, right? Kleiza is a versatile swingman that would likely thrive in D’Antoni’s system, and Lee is an undersized power forward that’s probably over-achieving in D’Antoni’s run-and-gun system. Kleiza would likely play better and produce more in NY than he has in Denver, but NY can probably sign him for role-player money. Denver would gain a nice young front court player, but they could be overpaying. Factor in a couple of first round picks and NY’s desire to have plenty of cap room in 2010, and this trade certainly seems possible.

Here’s why I say it’s not going to happen:

1. The Knicks might not be able to sign a big name superstar in 2010. Lebron, D-Wade, and Chris Bosh are all eligible to sign extensions this summer. Miami is playing their cards carefully, working to create a complete team around Dwayne Wade. Considering the success they’re having this season with a less-than-complete team, and considering that Miami can offer Wade a longer contract than any other team, there’s no reason to assume that Wade will be leaving the Heat. If Miami makes a good move or two this summer and rounds out the talent, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wade extends.

All of the above goes for Lebron as well.

Only Chris Bosh seems likely to leave his current team at this point, but the Knicks have the room to sign Bosh if they keep Lee or if they don’t. Here’s why…

2. It’s just math. Here’s the fun part – the salary cap math. Here’s how the Knicks look cap-wise in 2010 right now:

Player and salary (in millions)

• Curry – $11.277
• Jeffries – $6.883
• Gallinari – $3.304
• Chandler – $2.130

Let’s assume that NY manages to trade Jeffries for a larger expiring contract in the next 18 months. Let’s also assume that Curry is completely and totally un-tradeable, despite the fact that I firmly believe Curry can be moved to someone at some point before the summer of 2010.

Trading Jeffries leaves us at $16.71 million in total salary for the Knicks in 2010, plus Lee’s salary.

Let’s say that David Lee signs a 5 year contract for $50 million. With an 8% annual raise (the maximum allowed by the CBA), he’ll earn about $9.2 million in 2010. That puts the Knicks around $26 million in total salary in the summer of 2010. If the salary cap is $61 million (assuming overall NBA revenue doesn’t change dramatically), the Knicks would have $35 million in cap space with Lee in the fold.

By rule, the most that Bosh, Wade, Lebron, or any other 7 year NBA vet can earn in 2010 is going to be right around $17.5 million…which means $35 million in cap space is just barely enough to sign two free agents to max contracts.

Therefore, keeping Lee is feasible – assuming all my numbers are correct of course. Even if my numbers are wrong – let’s say they’re off by $2-$5 million – the Knicks shouldn’t have any trouble moving Gallinari, Chandler, and/or Lee for a smaller contract as part of the free agent signing process. As I said before, there’s also reason to believe Curry could be moved at some point. Even if the Knicks simply traded Curry for a smaller, longer contract, the cap situation improves.

So the math shows that keeping Lee AND participating in 2010’s free agency market is completely feasible. Considering the strong incentive that Wade, Lebron, and Bosh have to stay with their current teams, keeping Lee is the best course of action for the Knicks. If Wade and Lebron extend this summer (and I think they will), NY would look foolish trading Lee, an up-and-coming power forward with a knack for rebounding for Kleiza, a slightly under-achieving role player.

Antonio McDyess was included in the recent Allen Iverson – Chauncy Billups trade, and the trouble is he doesn’t want to play in Denver. Evidently, McDyess is still upset about the way he was treated in 2002 when Denver traded him away to the Knicks. Denver has tried to pursue a buyout with McDyess, but their offer (about 50% of what Antonio is owed) isn’t getting McDyess excited. Evidently, he wants most of his money AND he wants to go play somewhere else while he gets checks from Denver.

What is the world coming to? How can anyone expect such a thing? (more…)

OK OK – so I’ve never met the guy. The best I can do is read what sports writers and columnists write. Still, I can read between the lines: Mark Warkentein, the acting GM of the Nuggets, pulled off a fantastic move – he traded an aging superstar for a top-10 point guard (the most important position in the game), a young 7 footer, and luxury tax relief. Here’s my impression of how this deal went down:

Mark Warkentien, incorrectly vilified for dumping Marcus Camby (that trade was made by owner Stan Kroenke and his crony Bret Bearup), made a clever deal trading the aging Allen Iverson for a top-10 point guard in Chauncey Billups.

This past summer, Pistons GM Joe Dumars wanted to blow up his roster. After his attempt to trade for Carmelo was rebuffed (along with a few other superstar overtures), Dumars recognized it was going to be difficult to get “equal value” for any one of his starters.

Fast forward 3 months and enter Stephon Marbury, the best point guard riding the bench in the entire NBA. The rumor is he’ll be bought out. The Nuggets are interested in signing Marbury for the rest of the season. Unlike the Miami Heat (who are also interested in Starbury), Denver still has their full mid-level exception. Advantage, Nuggets.

Mark Warkentein picks up the phone, calls Joe Dumars, and says something like:

“We’re getting ready to sign Marbury, but I figured I’d give you a call and see about Chauncey. He likes Denver, you’ve got a capable replacement in Stuckey, and Chauncey’s contract is pretty long. Why not make a deal? I need an answer today, by the way…”

Dumars, you see, was in a bit of a pickle. He *knows* that he can move Chauncey to any team in the league at any time this year or next. However, he also knows that “equal value” is difficult (if not impossible) to achieve. Getting Iverson in exchange for Billups is a fair offer, especially when you consider the salary cap benefits. Denver created a sense of urgency by threatening to sign Marbury and put this whole thing to bed. Dumars would have preferred to wait to move Billups – he wanted to get Stuckey more minutes before putting the team in his hands – but the Nuggets (and the Knicks) made that impossible.

Dumars is no dummy, mind you. Making sure the Nuggets buy out McDyess (so he can return to Detroit) was a stroke of genius.

Warkentein’s Nuggets are positioned as perfectly for the future as they could hope to be.

• They’re almost under the luxury tax. They’ll need to make one more move – say trading Steven Hunter – to create a little more room, but when the McDyess buyout is done they’ll be very close to being under the luxury tax threshold. That’s a HUGE cost benefit – not only do the Nuggets avoid a tax payment, but teams under the luxury tax also receive an escrow payment and a share of the tax paid by other teams in the league. That payment – about $5 million – goes a long way towards making a team profitable.
• They’ve still got some tools left to improve the team. They have a $10 million salary exception that doesn’t expire until after free agency begins next year and an extra first-round pick. Depending on how this season goes, you’ll either see Kroenke open his wallet again (and use these tools to bring in some depth) or Warkentein will try and move K-Mart next summer using everything he’s got.
• They’re no longer a long-shot for the playoffs this season and next. The combination of K-Mart, Melo, Chauncey, and J.R. Smith is enough to threaten most teams in the league any given night, and if Nene emerges to be the player everyone hopes he can be, they’ll have most of what a championship team needs. Of course, they’ll have to learn how to play team defense, but that’s another discussion.
• Denver has few salary commitments past 2010-2011 season. They’re not going to be shopping during the “summer of Lebron,” but they’re going to have the funds to play in free agency about the same time that Melo hits 27 – arguably his prime.

Here are the downsides to this trade (from a GM’s perspective):

• Kleiza is probably leaving. There’s simply no way the Nuggets can afford to hold onto Linas Kleiza without exceeding the luxury tax next season. Unless the Nuggets can finally hit their stride and make it past the first round, owner Stan Kroenke is not going to pay to keep Linas.
• Denver can’t add depth. For the same reasons that Linas Kleiza may not be a Nugget next season, Denver can’t afford to hire any solid role players without exceeding the luxury tax threshold.
• Kenyon Martin is still a Nugget. While this doesn’t really have anything to do with the Billups-Iverson trade, the fact remains that the Nuggets are still saddled with one of the league’s worst contracts. If only Kenyon could have been included in the Billups deal…

Mark Warkentien is a good GM – that’s why the Knicks were looking at hiring him this past summer. If only Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke gave Warkentien complete control (see the Marcus Camby give-away).

It’s tantamount to heresy to say this in the Mile High city, but the Nuggets might actually be a better basketball team without Marcus Camby. Here’s why:

1) Camby’s shot selection. As much as I loved watching Camby put the ball over his shoulder and taking a 25 footer, I can say that many of his shots were ill-advised. While he definitely was able to knock some down, Camby took 11.6 shots per game. That’s 2.5 more shots than J.R. Smith, 5 more shots than Anthony Carter (who shot nearly 46% last season), and only 8 fewer shot attempts than Carmelo. That’s not really appropriate for a guy with such an awkward stroke.

2) Camby’s attitude. Camby earned the nickname “touches” while playing for the Nuggets. According to sports writers that followed the team, Camby demanded that plays be ran for him. When he didn’t get his way, Camby’s defensive and rebounding fell off.

3) Low post defense. Camby, slight for his size, is physically incapable of pushing most 4’s and 5’s out of the low post. Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, neither of whom is known for being overly physical, both moved Camby around at will during the playoffs. While Nene is not the rebounder that Camby is, his low-post defense stymied Tim Duncan in the playoffs two years ago. If Nene is healthy, the Nuggets post defense is improved.

4) Camby over-handled the ball. In addition to taking quite a few shots (some bad), Camby also regularly walked the ball up the court. Evidently, Camby envisioned himself as some sort of point guard. Too bad Denver’s fast-break offense is better served by Camby running without the ball.

5) Camby’s shot blocking is over-rated. First of all, Marcus is the first to admit that he wouldn’t block as many shots if he played on a team with better perimeter defense. If Denver’s perimeter defense improves (and it couldn’t get much worse) Camby’s shot blocking would be diminished. Secondly, shot blocking doesn’t always result in a change of possession. About half the time (I don’t have stats unfortunately), Camby’s blocked shots went out of bounds. To be sure, blocked shots effect the confidence of the opposing players. Yet shots blocked out of bounds reset the shot clock to 14 seconds, sometimes giving the opposition an extra possession.

6) Camby is playing on borrowed time. Camby’s injury history all but guarantees he’ll miss 20-30 games this coming season. Why not let him miss those games in L.A.?

Here’s how the math works out in my mind.

1. Camby generated extra possessions by snagging rebounds and blocking shots. 4 or 5 rebounds above average plus 3 blocked shots equals an extra 8 possessions per game? +8
2. Camby reduced Nuggets possessions by taking too many shots and over-handling the ball. At least 2 bad shots and/or fast break possessions lost, and probably more like 4. -3
3. Camby’s inadequate low post defense and below average interior physical presence resulted in easy layups for opposing bigs at least once per half, if not much more (like in the playoffs). -2

My crude math says that Camby’s presence only worked out to an extra 3 or 4 possessions per game. Factor in Marcus’s “touches” attitude (and the impact that had on the team) and it’s possible to say that Denver is no worse without him. They might even be better.