Not so fast.

While it’s certainly true Denver would probably be wise to move Carmelo now, they certainly don’t have to. There are a lot of unknowns that play in Denver’s favor.

A New C.B.A.

The obvious threat in a new CBA is that player salaries would drop 10-20%. However, I don’t think they’ll fall more than 10%. Therefore, I don’t think that Melo’s primary concern is losing cash. Instead, I think he’s more concerned about his limited team options under a new agreement.

Let’s assume, first, that Melo opts out in the summer. Next, let’s figure that the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) includes a hard cap at or near the current salary cap of $58 million. Finally, let’s estimate that player salaries are scaled back about 10%.

Under these conditions, a max contract for Melo in 2011-2012 would be worth about the same amount he’s making now – $17 million. How many teams will have $17 million in cap space next year?

• Nets
• Knicks, but only if they dump the contract or two
• Indiana
• OKC
• Memphis
• Sacramento
• Houston, assuming they don’t re-sign Yao
• Minnesota

Obviously, this list is subject to change. A lot of teams could move some things around to make room…but none of these teams are likely to be contenders. OKC is definitely a contender, but I don’t see a role for Melo on that team. Jeff Green + Kevin Durant already play SF/PF pretty well…not sure what Melo adds to that team to put them over the top.

Basically, if Melo wants to play for a contender, he needs a trade to make it happen. Otherwise, he’ll have to take his chances in NY, NJ, or hope that some other team blows things up to have a chance at Melo.

Melo Needs Kroenke More Than Kroenke Needs Melo

Melo’s wish is to complete a max extension under a sign and trade arrangement with a contending team like Houston. If he wants that to happen, he can’t do it by trying to put the screws to Kroenke.

If Melo wants to sign an extension for the maximum amount of money, he needs Denver to make the offer. Trouble is, Stan Kroenke is a billionaire. He doesn’t have to worry if the Nuggets enter a long period of budget-draining “suckiness” – he can just write a check and blame the poor performance of the team on Melo’s demand to leave.

Is it in the best interest of Denver to sacrifice Melo’s rights to prove a point? Of course not. Does anyone think that a billionaire like Stan Kroenke would hesitate to put a young punk like Melo in his place?

I think he might – at least I think it’s possible. If I were Melo, I wouldn’t bet $20 million on it.

Melo needs Denver just a little more than they need him, which means it’s in Melo’s best interests to help Denver obtain value for him in a trade. Expect to see Melo be amenable to a variety of trades once the real offers start coming in.

1. The Nuggets are capped out. Let’s assume for a moment that Denver tries and improve in free agency next summer. If they get Carmelo to extend and let Kenyon’s deal expire, their 2011-2012 salary commitments are:

• Melo for $18.5 million
• Chauncey for $14.2 if they keep him, $3.7 if they let him go
• Nene for $11.6 (assuming he doesn’t opt out)
• Birdman, Lawson, Balkman, and Afflalo for $9.5 million (at least – Afflalo might be worth more than the qualifying offer)
• J.R. Smith for $?? – if they want to keep him, they’ll need to pay him something in the $5-$10 million range depending on how he plays this season, what happens to the league, how many teams have cap space, etc.

Do the math, and Denver is on the hook for as little as $32 million if Nene opts out and they dump Chauncey. Keep those guys and the salary goes up to $54 million (or more) BEFORE they sign J.R. Smith. Denver will be capped-out next summer unless they dump some good players to make room.

2. Few big names available in free agency next year anways. Even IF Denver could find some cap space by dumping Nene, Billups, and Smith, the best they could do is to take a run at restricted free agents like Marc Gasol, Jeff Green, Al Horford, or Joakhim Noah (and Memphis, OKC, Atlanta, or Chicago would match). Unrestricted free agents like Zach Randolph or Kendrick Perkins would definitely help, but is losing Nene or Chauncey going to be worth signing Z-Bo, Perkins, or someone similar? You can see the list of 2011 free agents here, but it’s not too exciting.

3. Since they probably can’t improve in free agency, the Nuggets have to look to trades or the draft. Let’s go ahead and toss improving via the draft out the window right now. Denver’s not going to get a lottery pick unless they fail miserably next season, and you can bet Melo will ask for a trade if that happens.

As far as trades, Nene, K-Mart, and Billups can all be moved for either longer deals, draft picks, or younger players…but I don’t see any impact players being available via trade at this stage.

4. Denver is not significantly better than 8 other Western Conference teams. Here’s a list of teams that are nearly as good as or better than Denver:

• Lakers – Better, especially now that they have Steve Blake to cover up the biggest hole in their line-up.
• Thunder – They just might be the 2nd best team in the West.
• Portland – This team made it to the playoffs despite losing almost every player to injury for some portion of the season.
• Dallas – They’ll at least be as good as they were last year.
• Utah – They’ve taken a step backward, but I think Milsap and AK-47 will fill in for Boozer pretty well.
• Phoenix – The world will be shocked to learn Hakim Warrick is 90% as productive as Amar’e at 30% of the cost.
• Rockets – Houston is going to have Yao back next season, plus a full training camp with Kevin Martin. Look out.
• Spurs – They’re not as dominant as they used to be, but they’re always a contender with Ginobili, Duncan, and Parker.

We’ve also got the Clippers, the Warriors, and Memphis knocking on the door. I’m not saying these teams are better, but one of them will probably surprise us next season.

At best, Denver is the 3rd best team in the West. At worst? They lose K-Mart and Birdman for a big chunk of the season and finish as a lottery team.

5. Melo won’t hang out while the team re-loads. If Denver dumps everyone but Melo, Lawson, and Afflalo, they’ll have cap space and some draft picks they can use to get better over the next 3 to 5 years. However, why would Melo hang out for a rebuilding project? If LeBron can abandon Cleveland to try and win a title, you can bet Melo isn’t going to feel compelled to wait it out in Denver.

Denver’s Trade Hopes Slim

While every player on Denver’s roster has some sort of trade value, the contract that is most likely to return an impact player is Kenyon Martin’s $17 million expiring deal. However, consider the marketplace: K-Mart, Michael Redd, Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, Troy Murphy, Zach Randolph, Peja Stojakovic, Dalembert, Jason Richardson, and others are ALL big, expiring deals. K-Mart’s contract is one of at least 10 big expiring deals.

Denver can use K-Mart to get better, but only if they put together an offer that’s better than offers from 9 other teams.

Nene can be traded to almost any team in the league, but he’ll be very hard for the Nuggets to replace, and it’s not as if Denver has big men to spare. Chauncey could do wonders for a team like Atlanta or Charlotte, and his partially guaranteed contract could be value to a rebuilding team…but Denver needs Chauncey badly if they want to try and win now.

Most importantly, NBA trades that result in major upgrades for either party are fairly rare. Trying to significantly improve via trade is a long-shot.

Doing The Math Equals “Time To Rebuild”

Denver’s reality:

• No cap space next summer unless they dump good players
• No impact free agents available next summer anyways
• No draft picks unless the Nuggets tank (and Melo will probably ask for a trade if that happens)
• Small hopes of trading for an impact player
• Denver still isn’t good enough to beat L.A., and if their front court isn’t healthy they might not be good enough to make the playoffs this year

While it’s possible the trade situation could open up this season – or that Denver could be strong out of the gate this year – the most likely conclusion is that it’s time for the Nuggets to blow it up. Unless Denver can do something right now to get better – like signing an surprise impact veteran or pulling off some miraculous trade – it says here that Denver will unravel during the first half of the 2010-2011 season. By February, the NBA will be buzzing about the pending trades of Carmelo, Nene, and Chauncey.

Here are some thoughts I have about the game that I haven’t seen mentioned:

1. McMillan needs to resolve the PG question. I believe McMillan yanked Andre Miller at about the 6 min mark in the 4th quarter last night. Blake wasn’t playing nearly as well as Miller last night, and when Dre sat down the look on his face said it all. McMillan recognized his mistake at about 3 mins, but by then Blake had thrown a nasty turn-over. I recognize that it’s early, but I see this being a source of concern in Portland.

Miller is the better player, and the fact that McMillan isn’t starting him could upset team chemistry. Or it might not. As I said, it’s a concern in my mind.

2. Denver needs more length of the bench. I wrote back in June about how Denver should have traded for Kurt Thomas. I think that ship has probably sailed now (he’s in the rotation in Milwaukee), but how nice would it have been to bring Kurt off the bench last night for 20 mins or so?

3. Oden is a beast. This kid needs help in a lot of areas, but for sake of argument let’s say that Oden never significantly improves his game  from the current level. Assuming he can get his fouling somewhat under control and play 30 mins a night, he’s a top 10 NBA center that averages 12 boards and 3 blocks a night. Killer.

4. Carmelo is looking great, but I’m worried he’s going to disappoint us. Melo looked fantastic in the WCF, then he sort of disappeared. Perhaps the Lakers came up with a scheme, or perhaps Melo wasn’t 100%, but whatever the case, I think it’s very premature to talk about him as a potential MVP. If he can sustain this intensity for a few weeks, we’ve got something to talk about.

Kurt Thomas would be a great Denver Nugget

Here’s what I like about Denver trading for Kurt Thomas (aside from the fact that Thomas is a better player than Steven Hunter):

1. Thomas is an excellent defender with veteran savvy. He’s not as quick as he used to be, but he understands position and he’s a big body. He’s more than good enough to help lock down the middle on the second unit, and he’s still fast enough to guard some of the NBA’s slower bigs (Yao, Tim Duncan, and Shaq) for a few minutes per night.
2. Thomas has great shooting range for a center. Thomas can step back just past the free throw line and knock down jumpers all day long. Denver only has one big with that shot in his repertoire (Nene), and he already plays a lot of minutes. [To be honest, I think Thomas is probably a better shooter than Nene.]
3. He’s a good rebounder. He pulled down one rebound every 3.5 minutes last year in San Antonio – that’s better than Nene (1 rebound every 4.2 minutes last season), much better than K-Mart (5.3 minutes per) and only slightly less than Chris Anderson (3.3 minutes per).
4. He fits well at PF or C. He’s got the length to play center but he’s not so big that he can’t play power forward. If and/or when Nene, K-Mart, or Chris Anderson miss a game, Thomas can step in and cover.
5. He’s easy to trade again later. If Denver decides to make a trade again around mid-season, there isn’t a team in the league that wouldn’t be interested in Kurt Thomas. Not only is he the consummate professional that helps teams win, but he’s probably going to be interested in a buyout if he lands on a team with no prospects. If Denver works out a deal with a team headed for the lottery, Thomas is more of an asset than Steven Hunter because Thomas would likely be interested in a buyout.

I’m guessing that Milwaukee would entertain a swap of Hunter for Thomas. Hunter’s salary is slightly lower, and going forward Hunter would be a better long-term prospect (Hunter is still relatively young and might succeed in the right surroundings). If Denver offered a little cash to go along with Hunter, they’d have a serviceable backup for Nene with very little invested.

Besides, I don’t see Thomas wanting to stay in Milwaukee. He’ll be 37 when the season starts, and I doubt he’s interested in coming off the bench for a team that would be lucky to make the playoffs.

What do you think – could Denver work out a trade of Hunter + cash for Kurt Thomas? Should they?

Denver’s disadvantage on the boards is profound. They’never been good on the boards this season…if only McDyess had stayed. The Nuggets are still one big man away.

By the way, I’m pretty sure that Carter isn’t the Nuggets best passer. Why is he making the in-bounds on the most critical possession of the game? Karl’s confidence in his role players is great, but he deserves part of the blame here as well.

Just in case you didn’t notice, Melo had a HUGE game. Not only did he carry his team, but he probably made himself a ton of cash. A couple more games like this and Melo is going to be lookin’ at some big endorsement opportunities. Good for him.

Ariza was a non factor guarding Melo, just as I said he would be. His lack of strength and his comparitive lack of quickness (Melo is fast for such a big player) were Ariza’s undoing. The Lakers are going to need to adjust in game 2, but how? Who can cover Melo? Kobe wasn’t tremendously successful because…

Kobe won’t get all the calls against Melo that he normally gets as a “first team defender.” Kobe is accustomed to getting the benefit of the doubt, but that’s not going to happen while guarding Melo. I think that means that Melo has officially arrived.

As a Nuggets fan, I think Kobe deserves a flagrant 1 after-the-fact for his shot on Kenyon’s package. I think the timing is suspicious – K-Mart was jawing at Odom about 5 seconds previous to Kobe’s “accidental” shot. However…

As an NBA observer I highly doubt the NBA will do anything, and honestly I don’t know that they should. It’s hard to make that kind of call after the fact. Not only is it unfair (only the refs on the floor should be making that judgment), but it sets a bad precedent. Still, it says here that Kobe is a passive-aggressive bastard.

Two smart defensive assignments – Melo on Kobe (no gimme calls for Kobe) and Ariza on Billups (Chauncey disappeared for while).

Did anyone else notice Ariza flattening himself against a Chris Anderson screen? I bet that hurt.

Denver must correct their rotation problem. Farmar, Fisher, Ariza, and Shannon Brown all benefited from wide-open looks multiple times simply because someone on the Nuggets didn’t rotate. Most of the time, the players that didn’t rotate were Melo and J.R. Smith.

L.A. is still very much a soft team. Gasol and Odom were both intimidated by K-Mart, Nene, and Anderson. One more reason you can write me down for the Cavs winning it all.

Denver is good, but not good enough. Good game.

Point Guards – Billups and Carter vs. Fisher, Farmar, and Brown. There’s an awful lot to like about L.A.’s trio of point guards. Brown is lightening quick, Farmar is a talented shooter and capable player, and Fisher is big, strong, and clutch. Denver’s Anthony Carter is a good game manager and a great defender, but I don’t think he’ll be able to match the point output from Brown and Farmar. Lucky for Denver, Chauncey will easily outplay Fisher. Advantage: Nuggets.

Shooting Guards – Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith vs. Vujacic and some guy named Kobe. If the series lasts 7 games, there will be 1 game where J.R. Smith almost matches Kobe offensively – ONE. Most of the time, Kobe will double up J.R.’s scoring. When you add in Kobe’s defensive abilities and his superman powers, he wins the match-up all by himself.

Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones managed to get under Kobe’s skin a little in this series. In fact, the best thing Jones can do is figure out a way to get Kobe suspended (sounds like a crappy job). Advantage: Lakers (and it’s big).

Small Forward – Anthony and Kleiza vs. Ariza and Walton. Melo is going to use and abuse both Ariza and Walton (assuming Luke Walton will contribute) – he’s simply too strong and too quick. Melo’s opportunity to shine in this series is big – if he can carry his team the way that Kobe carries the Lakers, the Nuggets will be tough to beat. Count on Kleiza to be a no-show (Kleiza’s time as a Nugget is just about over, by the way). Advantage: Nuggets.

Power Forward – Kenyon Martin and Chris Anderson vs. Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol. I really like the Lamar Odom Kenyon Martin match-up when the two players are healthy, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Odom is banged up, so Kenyon’s toughness and physicality will likely make Odom a non-factor. When Kenyon spends time guarding Gasol, L.A. will benefit since Gasol is comfortable and capable of stepping out and shooting over Kenyon’s head.

Gasol’s height advantage leads me to believe that Chris Anderson will be playing a lot of minutes guarding Gasol in this series. Anderson’s energy and length really bothered Dirk Nowitzki, and you’ve got to believe he’ll be able to interfere with Gasol’s rythym. Still, it must be said that a bad game for Gasol is still a decent outing for any other player. Denver will need both K-Mart and Anderson at their best defensively if they want to have any chance of beating L.A. Advantage: Lakers.

Center – Nene vs. Bynum – Bynum’s size and athleticism will bother Nene, but Bynum’s tendency to foul will work to Nene’s strengths. If Bynum can wake up one day and be the player that he was in the regular season, L.A. has the advantage simply because they can play Gasol at PF for extended periods.

More likely, Bynum will struggle on defense, get into foul trouble, and L.A. will be forced to move Gasol to center and play Odom at PF. If this happens, Denver wins the overall matchup in the front court. Nene can almost play Gasol to a draw, and Odom will be a no-show against K-Mart. When you throw Chris Anderson into the mix, Denver ever so slightly edges out the Lakers when Bynum rides the pine. Still, if Bynum is able to stay on the floor and produce at a minimal level, Gasol moves to power forward and L.A. rolls. Advantage: Lakers (but not by much).

This series is all about Bynum. We know that Kobe will be dominant, and we know that Carmelo will be impossible for any of L.A.’s defenders to contain. We know that L.A. will likely forget to show up for a game or two, and we know that Denver is a better team defensively while L.A. is better offensively.

The question in this series is simple: Can Bynum produce? If Bynum can stay on the floor, Denver likely can’t prevail. Gasol at Power Forward is a difficult matchup for Denver that they won’t be able to compensate for. Still, Bynum riding the bench won’t mean an automatic win for the Nuggets. Nene and Chris Anderson will still need to contain Gasol while defensively as well as pressure him offensively and on the boards. That’s a tall order, but a combination of good physical defense from the Birdman and top-notch offense from Nene could put Gasol out of rhythm on offense and in foul trouble on defense.

Predictions:

• Chris Anderson will start at least one game in this series.
• Bynum will foul out twice.
• Odom will loose it and earn an ejection.
• Ditto K-Mart.
• Ditto J.R. Smith.
• Kobe will hit Dahntay Jones and the league will let it go.

Ultimately, I believe the Lakers win this series in 7 games. Denver’s front court isn’t deep enough to measure up against Bynum at Center and Gasol and power forward, and Kobe is killer in close games. Still, a 7 game series is close by definition. Any mis-steps by L.A. will have major implications.

Looking a little farther into the future (and assuming L.A. takes care of business), the Lakers had better watch out for Cleveland. The Cavs have the advantage in the frontcourt because of their superior defense, and Lebron vs. Kobe is simply too close to call. Home court usually wins, so you can put me down for the Cavs taking it all. It’s going to be fun!