Raymond Felton is a good passer, a decent defender, and a better shooter than Miller, and therefore he’s a better running mate for Brandon Roy. He’s also younger, so he’ll have a chance to develop chemistry with Portland’s new franchise player LaMarcus Aldridge.

In other words, Felton is a better fit than Miller.

In my opinion, Denver will be open to trading Felton right away because:

• Lawson is the new star in Denver
• Lawson has a bigger upside than Felton, which is important for a rebuilding team
• Lawson is cheaper

Therefore, if Portland is willing to offer something of substance in addition to Miller’s psuedo-expiring deal, I think they can get Denver to send Felton just a little further West.

What About Devin Harris?

It’s also been rumored that, should Carmelo head to New York, New Jersey and Portland will make a deal that sends Devin Harris, Travis Outlaw, and Anthony Morrow to Portland for Andre Miller, Joel Pryzbilla, and a youngster. I don’t like this trade for two reasons:

1. The Travis Outlaw contract – 5 years and $7 million per – is horrible.
2. Felton is probably available, and he’s a better point guard than Harris

Harris has more speed, and he could certainly be the focal-point of a new Blazers offense if Roy is indeed never again the player he once was. Still, Portland is winning games with Andre Miller, and Ray Felton is more like Andre Miller than Devin Harris is.

Felton’s contract is better too. Most teams are looking for ways to reduce their future salary commitments right now, so trading for Felton is a better move in that regard as well.

Bottom Line: If Denver is willing to move Felton (and I’m nearly certain that they will be), Portland should get involved. Ray Felton is a younger, better-shooting and more athletic version of Andre Miller, and he’s a better pure point guard than Devin Harris. He’s an upgrade now and a better player for the future.

1. Bynum has missed a lot of games this year and we still win without him
2. Kobe is on the downhill slope of his career – it’s a good idea to have a successor waiting in the wings
3. Melo might be a better player with Kobe and Phil Jackson looking over his shoulder – after all, we saw a glimpse of what Melo can do in the Denver-LA Western Conference Finals
4. Melo creates space for Gasol and Kobe and puts a lot of pressure on defenses

I also think LA is hesitant to trade for Melo because he wouldn’t improve their defense. There’s also the issue of usage – where will the ball go with Odom, Gasol, Kobe, and Melo all on the floor?

To be honest, I don’t see LA having a lot of reasons to do this deal. Unless Bynum isn’t taking things seriously and applying himself, trading him seems like the wrong move.

As far as Denver is concerned, this deal is a no-brainer. Here’s why:

1. Bynum is young, and he’s a franchise talent. Denver doesn’t want to trade Melo unless they can get a franchise talent – or a chance at drafting a franchise talent – in return. Bynum, when healthy, would be the 2nd best center in the league and a tough matchup.

2. Bynum is easy to flip. If Denver decides that Bynum isn’t the answer, they can flip him this summer for draft picks and interesting young players very easily. I think there are at least half a dozen teams that would get serious if Bynum were made available.

3. Grabbing Bynum makes moving Nene very possible. If Denver acquired Bynum, they would have every reason to trade Nene. Nene’s upside is much smaller, and he’s an older player – but he’s healthier and he doesn’t need the ball to be effective. Houston reportedly loves Nene and has a lot of great assets.

The main reason that Denver likes a Melo for Bynum deal, however, is this: Bynum brings back more than Melo in any trade scenario. Because Melo is unwilling to sign an extension with most teams, his trade value is lower than the value of Bynum, who is under contract for at least two more seasons.

I don’ t think I’d like this move if I were an LA fan, but as a Nuggets fan I’m all about it. Here’s to hoping it goes down, or at the very least gets NY to raise their offer.

Not so fast.

While it’s certainly true Denver would probably be wise to move Carmelo now, they certainly don’t have to. There are a lot of unknowns that play in Denver’s favor.

A New C.B.A.

The obvious threat in a new CBA is that player salaries would drop 10-20%. However, I don’t think they’ll fall more than 10%. Therefore, I don’t think that Melo’s primary concern is losing cash. Instead, I think he’s more concerned about his limited team options under a new agreement.

Let’s assume, first, that Melo opts out in the summer. Next, let’s figure that the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) includes a hard cap at or near the current salary cap of $58 million. Finally, let’s estimate that player salaries are scaled back about 10%.

Under these conditions, a max contract for Melo in 2011-2012 would be worth about the same amount he’s making now – $17 million. How many teams will have $17 million in cap space next year?

• Nets
• Knicks, but only if they dump the contract or two
• Indiana
• OKC
• Memphis
• Sacramento
• Houston, assuming they don’t re-sign Yao
• Minnesota

Obviously, this list is subject to change. A lot of teams could move some things around to make room…but none of these teams are likely to be contenders. OKC is definitely a contender, but I don’t see a role for Melo on that team. Jeff Green + Kevin Durant already play SF/PF pretty well…not sure what Melo adds to that team to put them over the top.

Basically, if Melo wants to play for a contender, he needs a trade to make it happen. Otherwise, he’ll have to take his chances in NY, NJ, or hope that some other team blows things up to have a chance at Melo.

Melo Needs Kroenke More Than Kroenke Needs Melo

Melo’s wish is to complete a max extension under a sign and trade arrangement with a contending team like Houston. If he wants that to happen, he can’t do it by trying to put the screws to Kroenke.

If Melo wants to sign an extension for the maximum amount of money, he needs Denver to make the offer. Trouble is, Stan Kroenke is a billionaire. He doesn’t have to worry if the Nuggets enter a long period of budget-draining “suckiness” – he can just write a check and blame the poor performance of the team on Melo’s demand to leave.

Is it in the best interest of Denver to sacrifice Melo’s rights to prove a point? Of course not. Does anyone think that a billionaire like Stan Kroenke would hesitate to put a young punk like Melo in his place?

I think he might – at least I think it’s possible. If I were Melo, I wouldn’t bet $20 million on it.

Melo needs Denver just a little more than they need him, which means it’s in Melo’s best interests to help Denver obtain value for him in a trade. Expect to see Melo be amenable to a variety of trades once the real offers start coming in.

1. The Nuggets are capped out. Let’s assume for a moment that Denver tries and improve in free agency next summer. If they get Carmelo to extend and let Kenyon’s deal expire, their 2011-2012 salary commitments are:

• Melo for $18.5 million
• Chauncey for $14.2 if they keep him, $3.7 if they let him go
• Nene for $11.6 (assuming he doesn’t opt out)
• Birdman, Lawson, Balkman, and Afflalo for $9.5 million (at least – Afflalo might be worth more than the qualifying offer)
• J.R. Smith for $?? – if they want to keep him, they’ll need to pay him something in the $5-$10 million range depending on how he plays this season, what happens to the league, how many teams have cap space, etc.

Do the math, and Denver is on the hook for as little as $32 million if Nene opts out and they dump Chauncey. Keep those guys and the salary goes up to $54 million (or more) BEFORE they sign J.R. Smith. Denver will be capped-out next summer unless they dump some good players to make room.

2. Few big names available in free agency next year anways. Even IF Denver could find some cap space by dumping Nene, Billups, and Smith, the best they could do is to take a run at restricted free agents like Marc Gasol, Jeff Green, Al Horford, or Joakhim Noah (and Memphis, OKC, Atlanta, or Chicago would match). Unrestricted free agents like Zach Randolph or Kendrick Perkins would definitely help, but is losing Nene or Chauncey going to be worth signing Z-Bo, Perkins, or someone similar? You can see the list of 2011 free agents here, but it’s not too exciting.

3. Since they probably can’t improve in free agency, the Nuggets have to look to trades or the draft. Let’s go ahead and toss improving via the draft out the window right now. Denver’s not going to get a lottery pick unless they fail miserably next season, and you can bet Melo will ask for a trade if that happens.

As far as trades, Nene, K-Mart, and Billups can all be moved for either longer deals, draft picks, or younger players…but I don’t see any impact players being available via trade at this stage.

4. Denver is not significantly better than 8 other Western Conference teams. Here’s a list of teams that are nearly as good as or better than Denver:

• Lakers – Better, especially now that they have Steve Blake to cover up the biggest hole in their line-up.
• Thunder – They just might be the 2nd best team in the West.
• Portland – This team made it to the playoffs despite losing almost every player to injury for some portion of the season.
• Dallas – They’ll at least be as good as they were last year.
• Utah – They’ve taken a step backward, but I think Milsap and AK-47 will fill in for Boozer pretty well.
• Phoenix – The world will be shocked to learn Hakim Warrick is 90% as productive as Amar’e at 30% of the cost.
• Rockets – Houston is going to have Yao back next season, plus a full training camp with Kevin Martin. Look out.
• Spurs – They’re not as dominant as they used to be, but they’re always a contender with Ginobili, Duncan, and Parker.

We’ve also got the Clippers, the Warriors, and Memphis knocking on the door. I’m not saying these teams are better, but one of them will probably surprise us next season.

At best, Denver is the 3rd best team in the West. At worst? They lose K-Mart and Birdman for a big chunk of the season and finish as a lottery team.

5. Melo won’t hang out while the team re-loads. If Denver dumps everyone but Melo, Lawson, and Afflalo, they’ll have cap space and some draft picks they can use to get better over the next 3 to 5 years. However, why would Melo hang out for a rebuilding project? If LeBron can abandon Cleveland to try and win a title, you can bet Melo isn’t going to feel compelled to wait it out in Denver.

Denver’s Trade Hopes Slim

While every player on Denver’s roster has some sort of trade value, the contract that is most likely to return an impact player is Kenyon Martin’s $17 million expiring deal. However, consider the marketplace: K-Mart, Michael Redd, Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, Troy Murphy, Zach Randolph, Peja Stojakovic, Dalembert, Jason Richardson, and others are ALL big, expiring deals. K-Mart’s contract is one of at least 10 big expiring deals.

Denver can use K-Mart to get better, but only if they put together an offer that’s better than offers from 9 other teams.

Nene can be traded to almost any team in the league, but he’ll be very hard for the Nuggets to replace, and it’s not as if Denver has big men to spare. Chauncey could do wonders for a team like Atlanta or Charlotte, and his partially guaranteed contract could be value to a rebuilding team…but Denver needs Chauncey badly if they want to try and win now.

Most importantly, NBA trades that result in major upgrades for either party are fairly rare. Trying to significantly improve via trade is a long-shot.

Doing The Math Equals “Time To Rebuild”

Denver’s reality:

• No cap space next summer unless they dump good players
• No impact free agents available next summer anyways
• No draft picks unless the Nuggets tank (and Melo will probably ask for a trade if that happens)
• Small hopes of trading for an impact player
• Denver still isn’t good enough to beat L.A., and if their front court isn’t healthy they might not be good enough to make the playoffs this year

While it’s possible the trade situation could open up this season – or that Denver could be strong out of the gate this year – the most likely conclusion is that it’s time for the Nuggets to blow it up. Unless Denver can do something right now to get better – like signing an surprise impact veteran or pulling off some miraculous trade – it says here that Denver will unravel during the first half of the 2010-2011 season. By February, the NBA will be buzzing about the pending trades of Carmelo, Nene, and Chauncey.

Here are some thoughts I have about the game that I haven’t seen mentioned:

1. McMillan needs to resolve the PG question. I believe McMillan yanked Andre Miller at about the 6 min mark in the 4th quarter last night. Blake wasn’t playing nearly as well as Miller last night, and when Dre sat down the look on his face said it all. McMillan recognized his mistake at about 3 mins, but by then Blake had thrown a nasty turn-over. I recognize that it’s early, but I see this being a source of concern in Portland.

Miller is the better player, and the fact that McMillan isn’t starting him could upset team chemistry. Or it might not. As I said, it’s a concern in my mind.

2. Denver needs more length of the bench. I wrote back in June about how Denver should have traded for Kurt Thomas. I think that ship has probably sailed now (he’s in the rotation in Milwaukee), but how nice would it have been to bring Kurt off the bench last night for 20 mins or so?

3. Oden is a beast. This kid needs help in a lot of areas, but for sake of argument let’s say that Oden never significantly improves his game  from the current level. Assuming he can get his fouling somewhat under control and play 30 mins a night, he’s a top 10 NBA center that averages 12 boards and 3 blocks a night. Killer.

4. Carmelo is looking great, but I’m worried he’s going to disappoint us. Melo looked fantastic in the WCF, then he sort of disappeared. Perhaps the Lakers came up with a scheme, or perhaps Melo wasn’t 100%, but whatever the case, I think it’s very premature to talk about him as a potential MVP. If he can sustain this intensity for a few weeks, we’ve got something to talk about.

Kurt Thomas would be a great Denver Nugget

Here’s what I like about Denver trading for Kurt Thomas (aside from the fact that Thomas is a better player than Steven Hunter):

1. Thomas is an excellent defender with veteran savvy. He’s not as quick as he used to be, but he understands position and he’s a big body. He’s more than good enough to help lock down the middle on the second unit, and he’s still fast enough to guard some of the NBA’s slower bigs (Yao, Tim Duncan, and Shaq) for a few minutes per night.
2. Thomas has great shooting range for a center. Thomas can step back just past the free throw line and knock down jumpers all day long. Denver only has one big with that shot in his repertoire (Nene), and he already plays a lot of minutes. [To be honest, I think Thomas is probably a better shooter than Nene.]
3. He’s a good rebounder. He pulled down one rebound every 3.5 minutes last year in San Antonio – that’s better than Nene (1 rebound every 4.2 minutes last season), much better than K-Mart (5.3 minutes per) and only slightly less than Chris Anderson (3.3 minutes per).
4. He fits well at PF or C. He’s got the length to play center but he’s not so big that he can’t play power forward. If and/or when Nene, K-Mart, or Chris Anderson miss a game, Thomas can step in and cover.
5. He’s easy to trade again later. If Denver decides to make a trade again around mid-season, there isn’t a team in the league that wouldn’t be interested in Kurt Thomas. Not only is he the consummate professional that helps teams win, but he’s probably going to be interested in a buyout if he lands on a team with no prospects. If Denver works out a deal with a team headed for the lottery, Thomas is more of an asset than Steven Hunter because Thomas would likely be interested in a buyout.

I’m guessing that Milwaukee would entertain a swap of Hunter for Thomas. Hunter’s salary is slightly lower, and going forward Hunter would be a better long-term prospect (Hunter is still relatively young and might succeed in the right surroundings). If Denver offered a little cash to go along with Hunter, they’d have a serviceable backup for Nene with very little invested.

Besides, I don’t see Thomas wanting to stay in Milwaukee. He’ll be 37 when the season starts, and I doubt he’s interested in coming off the bench for a team that would be lucky to make the playoffs.

What do you think – could Denver work out a trade of Hunter + cash for Kurt Thomas? Should they?