No Blood No Foul

Denver’s performance against the Lakers in this year’s playoffs highlighted their youth and their dependence upon jump shooting, but it also showed their potential:

• Faried, despite being undersized, will grow as a scorer. The Nuggets should look forward to having a very good “dirty work” player which opposing teams can’t cheat off of.
• Galinari, despite overhandling the ball and making some mystifying choices on defense in the playoffs, has shown he can be a semi-reliable half court scorer. Combined with his length and his outside shooting, he’s a tough match-up.
• With his combination of speed, shooting, and aggressiveness, Lawson has shown star potential. I just read a great little recap of the Nuggets season that compared Lawson to Tony Parker…and I think that’s generous, but it’s also interesting. Lawson definitely hasn’t hit his ceiling yet (at least I hope not).
• When Afflalo’s confidence is high, he can score surprisingly well. When it’s not, he’s still an excellent defender.
• Chandler is a solid all-around player who would be a great 3rd scoring option.
• Mozgov continues to show potential as an all-around big man, only I’m not sure he’s the right all-around big man for the Nuggets.
• Koufos didn’t have much success in the playoffs, but in the regular season he performed pretty well. Worst case, he’s a solid rotation player.
• McGee showed he has the potential to be a dominant talent, but also showed that he’s got a lot of work to do to get there.

As I write this post, the 2nd round has been underway for about an hour (only I haven’t seen a minute of them yet). Here are my predictions:

Eastern Conference

• Boston over Philly in 6
• Miami over Indy in 5

Western Conference

• OKC in  5 games, no matter who they play
• SAS over Memphis in 6 games OR SAS over the Clippers in 5

More on these picks – as well as a recap of the first round – below. (more…)

As I write this post at 1:30pm Eastern, the playoffs have just begun…here are my predictions:

WEST

• San Antonio sweeps
• OKC in 5
• LA in 7
• Memphis in 6

EAST

• Chicago sweeps
• Miami in 6
• Indiana in 6
• Boston in 6

More on these picks below. (more…)

Just about one month ago, Denver traded Nene for Javale McGee. The consensus at the time of the trade seemed to be that Denver got younger and – in all likelihood – better (see NBA TV analysis, Roundball Mining Company from March 16th, and Hochman at the Denver Post), with DenverStiffs.com disagreeing slightly to say that McGee wasn’t as good as Nene as an NBA player, but that he was a much better asset than Nene. BulletsForever.com also stated that this was a good trade, albeit 2 weeks after the fact.

Predictably, Nuggets fanboys are starting to second-guess their own analysis. Roundball Mining Company now feels that trading for McGee was a mistake, half-heartedly arguing that McGee has no value before complaining that McGee might warrant a large contract in the off-season.

To me, this was a smart trade that comes down to three factors:

1. Building a balanced roster that will peak at the same time
2. Saving money
3. Maintaining future flexibility

Here’s how I’m going to break this out. First, I’m going to look at Nene and McGee as players, then connect that with Denver’s plan to build a champion while also making money and staying flexible. (more…)

If I’m Cho and I’m running the show in Portland (pardon the pun), I’m working hard today to put my hands into the rumored Knicks-Nuggets trade that sends Ray Felton to Denver. Why? Because, as much as I like Andre Miller (and I’m speaking as a student of the game and as Blazer’s management), he’s old. He’s as good as he’s ever going to be. Felton? He’s only going to get better.

Raymond Felton is a good passer, a decent defender, and a better shooter than Miller, and therefore he’s a better running mate for Brandon Roy. He’s also younger, so he’ll have a chance to develop chemistry with Portland’s new franchise player LaMarcus Aldridge.

In other words, Felton is a better fit than Miller.

In my opinion, Denver will be open to trading Felton right away because: (more…)

The rumor of the day is that L.A. is considering trading Andrew Bynum for Carmelo Anthony. I assume L.A.’s reasoning goes something like this:

1. Bynum has missed a lot of games this year and we still win without him
2. Kobe is on the downhill slope of his career – it’s a good idea to have a successor waiting in the wings
3. Melo might be a better player with Kobe and Phil Jackson looking over his shoulder – after all, we saw a glimpse of what Melo can do in the Denver-LA Western Conference Finals
4. Melo creates space for Gasol and Kobe and puts a lot of pressure on defenses

I also think LA is hesitant to trade for Melo because he wouldn’t improve their defense. There’s also the issue of usage – where will the ball go with Odom, Gasol, Kobe, and Melo all on the floor?

To be honest, I don’t see LA having a lot of reasons to do this deal. Unless Bynum isn’t taking things seriously and applying himself, trading him seems like the wrong move.

As far as Denver is concerned, this deal is a no-brainer. Here’s why: (more…)