No Blood No Foul

If you watched the playoffs back in May and June, you can see that the Denver Nuggets need depth at the center position. While there’s been talk of working a deal for Jeff Foster (and I like that possibility), I think Kurt Thomas represents an excellent opportunity to grab a championship-caliber veteran player without giving up much of anything (a.k.a Steven Hunter - no offense).

Kurt Thomas would be a great Denver Nugget

Here’s what I like about Denver trading for Kurt Thomas (aside from the fact that Thomas is a better player than Steven Hunter): (more…)

Anthony Carter is going to get the blame, but the Nuggets lost this game in the last 3 minutes. They simply don’t have the experience in close games. A silly reach in foul, one poor rotation, and one bad possession is all it takes to lose in a game like this.

Denver’s disadvantage on the boards is profound. They’never been good on the boards this season…if only McDyess had stayed. The Nuggets are still one big man away.

By the way, I’m pretty sure that Carter isn’t the Nuggets best passer. Why is he making the in-bounds on the most critical possession of the game? Karl’s confidence in his role players is great, but he deserves part of the blame here as well. (more…)

Here’s what the Lakers-Nuggets 2008-2009 Western Conference Finals are going to look like:

Point Guards - Billups and Carter vs. Fisher, Farmar, and Brown. There’s an awful lot to like about L.A.’s trio of point guards. Brown is lightening quick, Farmar is a talented shooter and capable player, and Fisher is big, strong, and clutch. Denver’s Anthony Carter is a good game manager and a great defender, but I don’t think he’ll be able to match the point output from Brown and Farmar. Lucky for Denver, Chauncey will easily outplay Fisher. Advantage: Nuggets.

Shooting Guards - Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith vs. Vujacic and some guy named Kobe. If the series lasts 7 games, there will be 1 game where J.R. Smith almost matches Kobe offensively - ONE. Most of the time, Kobe will double up J.R.’s scoring. When you add in Kobe’s defensive abilities and his superman powers, he wins the match-up all by himself.

Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones managed to get under Kobe’s skin a little in this series. In fact, the best thing Jones can do is figure out a way to get Kobe suspended (sounds like a crappy job). Advantage: Lakers (and it’s big). (more…)

Linas Kleiza should be relishing this time - it’s exciting to be competing in the playoffs, especially when your team looks like it can make it all the way to the Conference Finals. Playing with Chauncey and K-Mart in their primes, with a surging Nene, a strong Melo, and a surprisingly potent bench in Carter and Anderson, Kleiza has got to be loving life.

Unfortunately, these days will be over soon. Kleiza’s days as a Nugget are coming to a close. The reasons?

• Chris Anderson - The Bird Man is playing out of his mind, and Denver’s only option will be to resign him. If Anderson continues to put up tremendous performances in playoff games, he might just demand the full mid-level. My guess is that Denver pays Anderson $10-12 million on a fully guaranteed 3 year deal. Considering how close the Nuggets are to exceeding the luxury tax threshold without Anderson’s new contract, Anderson’s gain is Kleiza’s loss.

• Kleiza has been over-hyped by his coach. Karl loves to talk about how versatile and dangerous L.K. can be, yet most of us haven’t seen it in this season. Sure, in years past L.K.’s presence was instrumental (Melo’s 15 game suspension back in the 06-07 season, subbing for K-Mart and Nene on and off for the last 3 seasons, etc.), but this year George Karl raised expectations for L.K. so much that he was bound to dissapoint. (more…)
  

All the talking heads and analysts have already said the Nuggets win the series, and I think that’s likely as well. Denver simply has too much to overcome the Mavs:

• Billups vs. Kidd - This will come down to Billups being able to score in transition. Kidd is slow, and if he’s out of position because he’s trying to pull down a rebound, Billups is going to get an easy look. Since Billups matches Kidd in terms of playmaking, and since Kidd’s offense is pretty poor, Kidd needs to keep Billups from scoring a lot (like he did tonight) to win the matchup. Billups is the guy in this series, but it’s going to be close. (more…)
  

I’m a big fan of Hoopsworld.com and my “friendly neighborhood columnist” Travis Heath. Travis has mentioned a few times that the Nuggets might be able to get David Lee from New York for two 1st round picks and Linas Kleiza.

Seems reasonable enough, right? Kleiza is a versatile swingman that would likely thrive in D’Antoni’s system, and Lee is an undersized power forward that’s probably over-achieving in D’Antoni’s run-and-gun system. Kleiza would likely play better and produce more in NY than he has in Denver, but NY can probably sign him for role-player money. Denver would gain a nice young front court player, but they could be overpaying. Factor in a couple of first round picks and NY’s desire to have plenty of cap room in 2010, and this trade certainly seems possible.

Here’s why I say it’s not going to happen:

1. The Knicks might not be able to sign a big name superstar in 2010. Lebron, D-Wade, and Chris Bosh are all eligible to sign extensions this summer. Miami is playing their cards carefully, working to create a complete team around Dwayne Wade. Considering the success they’re having this season with a less-than-complete team, and considering that Miami can offer Wade a longer contract than any other team, there’s no reason to assume that Wade will be leaving the Heat. If Miami makes a good move or two this summer and rounds out the talent, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wade extends.

All of the above goes for Lebron as well.

Only Chris Bosh seems likely to leave his current team at this point, but the Knicks have the room to sign Bosh if they keep Lee or if they don’t. Here’s why…

2. It’s just math. Here’s the fun part - the salary cap math. Here’s how the Knicks look cap-wise in 2010 right now:

Player and salary (in millions)

• Curry - $11.277
• Jeffries - $6.883
• Gallinari - $3.304
• Chandler - $2.130

Let’s assume that NY manages to trade Jeffries for a larger expiring contract in the next 18 months. Let’s also assume that Curry is completely and totally un-tradeable, despite the fact that I firmly believe Curry can be moved to someone at some point before the summer of 2010.

Trading Jeffries leaves us at $16.71 million in total salary for the Knicks in 2010, plus Lee’s salary.

Let’s say that David Lee signs a 5 year contract for $50 million. With an 8% annual raise (the maximum allowed by the CBA), he’ll earn about $9.2 million in 2010. That puts the Knicks around $26 million in total salary in the summer of 2010. If the salary cap is $61 million (assuming overall NBA revenue doesn’t change dramatically), the Knicks would have $35 million in cap space with Lee in the fold.

By rule, the most that Bosh, Wade, Lebron, or any other 7 year NBA vet can earn in 2010 is going to be right around $17.5 million…which means $35 million in cap space is just barely enough to sign two free agents to max contracts.

Therefore, keeping Lee is feasible - assuming all my numbers are correct of course. Even if my numbers are wrong - let’s say they’re off by $2-$5 million - the Knicks shouldn’t have any trouble moving Gallinari, Chandler, and/or Lee for a smaller contract as part of the free agent signing process. As I said before, there’s also reason to believe Curry could be moved at some point. Even if the Knicks simply traded Curry for a smaller, longer contract, the cap situation improves.

So the math shows that keeping Lee AND participating in 2010’s free agency market is completely feasible. Considering the strong incentive that Wade, Lebron, and Bosh have to stay with their current teams, keeping Lee is the best course of action for the Knicks. If Wade and Lebron extend this summer (and I think they will), NY would look foolish trading Lee, an up-and-coming power forward with a knack for rebounding for Kleiza, a slightly under-achieving role player.