1. Confirming the existence of the list hurts Bosh’s image with Toronto’s fans. The fact that a list officially exists hurts Bosh’s standing with fans. Colangelo wouldn’t do that to his star player unless he felt like his chances of staying in Toronto were slim.

2. Colangelo is starting the sign-and-trade ball rolling. Now that NBA GM’s are aware Bosh can be had, it’s time for them to start calling Toronto and making a pitch to Colangelo. Obviously, the final move is up to Chris Bosh…but if someone calls and offers a superstar to Toronto to try and acquire Bosh, that’s going to help set the value for a sign-and-trade. The next question is…

Where Is Bosh Headed?

Here are the four teams Bosh supposedly wants to play for next year and my estimation of their chances of trading for him.

Chicago – Unless they’re willing to part with Joakim Noah, I think the other teams on this list can make a better offer. I suppose that Bosh could try and force his way to Chicago, but the best move for everyone is to work together. Without giving up Noah, the best players Chicago can offer are Hinrich (who Toronto doesn’t need), Deng (overpaid and also a guy Toronto doesn’t need), and then a nice inexpensive young PF (Gibson or Johnson). Granted, Chicago can throw some picks at Toronto, but so can most of the teams on this list.

Lakers – This one makes a hell of a lot of sense if the rumors of Bynum’s availability are true. Bynum for Bosh is as close to a win-win as Toronto can get. Having said that, if the Lakers win the championship, why would they change their team? If the Lakers want to offer Bynum, they’ll have the best offer on the table.

Miami – Miami’s chances are better than Chicago, but they’re still sort of slim. Miami’s best trade pieces are Beasley and draft picks (including the 18th pick this summer). Miami shouldn’t be counted out – Beasley isn’t a bad return on Bosh – but it’s going to take pressure from Bosh to make this happen.

By the way – I could see Toronto packaging Calderon with Bosh if Miami gets involved…but Miami is going to have to sacrifice their draft picks for the next few years to get it done.

New York – The Knicks seem like a long shot to land Bosh in a sign and trade. Not only are they division rivals, but they don’t have a lot of talent they can send back. They’ve also given most of their draft picks away. One interesting wrinkle, however, could be trading both Bosh and Turkoglu for Curry and Gallinari.

• If I’m running things in Toronto, the opportunity to dump Turk would be tempting, especially if I got a cheap young player of equivalent talent in return. Curry might actually be able to help Toronto, but if he can’t, it’s a small price to pay to be out from under Turk’s ridiculous deal.
• If I’m running things in New York, I look at this deal because it helps me convince Joe Johnson to come to the Big Apple. Turk is overpaid for sure, but he’s also a mis-match SF who can help open up the middle.

In any case, I think the market for Bosh hinges on how the Lakers play in the Finals. If Gasol exhibits some new-found toughness, L.A. will consider sliding him over to center and bringing in Bosh. If not, it’s going to be hard to give up on Bynum…unless of course L.A. tanks against Boston, but I don’t think that will happen.

1. Utah and Miami – Boozer would love a deal that would send him to Miami, and Wade would likely hook-up on an extension right away if Boozer came to town. It’s hard to imagine who Miami would send back to Utah, however. If they were willing to part with some young guards (whom Utah has no need for), Udonis Haslem, a draft pick, and $3 million in cash, they could string a deal together. It’s possible on paper, but it looks like a bad deal for Utah. Miami might consider trading Beasley for Boozer, but that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me - Beasley has more upside and Utah doesn’t need him.

2. Utah and Chicago – This is the deal that gets everyone excited, but honestly I don’t get it. Trading Boozer for Tyrus Thomas and Salmons sounds like a decent deal for Utah, but I think it makes Chicago worse. Trading Tyrus Thomas and an expiring deal sounds better for Chicago, but that’s a pittance for Utah. Ultimately, I doubt that Utah is that interested in Tyrus Thomas. He’s not a Sloan-type player, and the whole point of trading Boozer is to clear the way for Milsap while also getting some value. Thomas is going to want minutes, so adding him just creates more problems.

3. Utah and Detroit – I doubt it. Detroit had their chance to make a run at Boozer in the days heading up to free agency and they never expressed interest. If they had, Utah wouldn’t be in this situation in the first place.

4. Utah and Charlotte – This one isn’t getting a lot of press, but it seems possible. Charlotte could send Gerald Wallace and a small contract to Utah for Boozer, and both teams would likely get better. The problem is that I doubt Charlotte wants to pay Boozer big dollars next summer, so they would likely be losing Gerald Wallace to rent Boozer for a season – probably not going to happen.

5. Utah and the Knicks – I’m about to layout a crazy trade scenario, but honestly it makes as much sense as anything else I can think of. The Knicks could sign and trade David Lee and Cuttino Mobely to Utah for Boozer and Harpring.

If Utah traded for David Lee, they could either a) have an excuse to let Milsap go to Portland or b) have one of the best front lines in the Western Conference with Lee, Milsap, and Okur.

NYC would get the rights to re-sign Boozer next summer along with another big-time free agent, so it’s a win for them.

The way I’ve laid out this trade, Utah could afford to pay Milsap AND Lee next year and then let some people go next summer. Here’s how it would work.

• The Knicks sign Lee to a front-loaded contract with his first year at about 11.6 million.

• The Knicks then trade Lee and Cat Mobley to Utah for Boozer and Harpring. Lee is a base year compensation (BYC) player, so the league only counts 1/2 of his new salary towards the trade on New York’s side of the equation.

• i.e., NY sends out 9.5 million for Mobley and 5.8 million for Lee (because of the BYC rule), or 15.3 million as far as the trade rules are concerned.

• Utah sends out 12.7 for Boozer plus 6.5 for Harpring – 19.2 million total. This is barely within the allowable range for NY.

• Utah takes back more salary than they sent out – 21.1 million. Adding this extra 1.9 million to the salary also adds another 1.9 million in luxury taxes, so Utah’s costs will go up 3.8 million.

• However, since insurance covers 7.6 million of Mobley’s contract Utah is actually UP 3.8 million after you account for the extra salary and tax due to Lee.

• NYC sends Utah $3 million in cash to make the deal, so Utah ends up with $6.8 million in savings that they can use to pay for Milsap.

• Utah could likely get one of NY’s first round draft picks as well.

In Utah, Lee can step in and produce immediately. Utah might also have a first round pick to look forward to, and Mobley’s expiring contract next summer takes them out of the tax. Best of all, they would get to keep their guy Milsap.

Lee, Milsap, and Okur would be a great front line to match-up against Portland, Denver, L.A., and San Antonio, and their line will only get better as the years go by. It’s not necessarily the cheapest way to go for Utah, but it’s a nice deal for sure.

Best of all, Portland’s front office comes off looking like a bunch of dummies.

Thoughts?

Seems reasonable enough, right? Kleiza is a versatile swingman that would likely thrive in D’Antoni’s system, and Lee is an undersized power forward that’s probably over-achieving in D’Antoni’s run-and-gun system. Kleiza would likely play better and produce more in NY than he has in Denver, but NY can probably sign him for role-player money. Denver would gain a nice young front court player, but they could be overpaying. Factor in a couple of first round picks and NY’s desire to have plenty of cap room in 2010, and this trade certainly seems possible.

Here’s why I say it’s not going to happen:

1. The Knicks might not be able to sign a big name superstar in 2010. Lebron, D-Wade, and Chris Bosh are all eligible to sign extensions this summer. Miami is playing their cards carefully, working to create a complete team around Dwayne Wade. Considering the success they’re having this season with a less-than-complete team, and considering that Miami can offer Wade a longer contract than any other team, there’s no reason to assume that Wade will be leaving the Heat. If Miami makes a good move or two this summer and rounds out the talent, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wade extends.

All of the above goes for Lebron as well.

Only Chris Bosh seems likely to leave his current team at this point, but the Knicks have the room to sign Bosh if they keep Lee or if they don’t. Here’s why…

2. It’s just math. Here’s the fun part – the salary cap math. Here’s how the Knicks look cap-wise in 2010 right now:

Player and salary (in millions)

• Curry – $11.277
• Jeffries – $6.883
• Gallinari – $3.304
• Chandler – $2.130

Let’s assume that NY manages to trade Jeffries for a larger expiring contract in the next 18 months. Let’s also assume that Curry is completely and totally un-tradeable, despite the fact that I firmly believe Curry can be moved to someone at some point before the summer of 2010.

Trading Jeffries leaves us at $16.71 million in total salary for the Knicks in 2010, plus Lee’s salary.

Let’s say that David Lee signs a 5 year contract for $50 million. With an 8% annual raise (the maximum allowed by the CBA), he’ll earn about $9.2 million in 2010. That puts the Knicks around $26 million in total salary in the summer of 2010. If the salary cap is $61 million (assuming overall NBA revenue doesn’t change dramatically), the Knicks would have $35 million in cap space with Lee in the fold.

By rule, the most that Bosh, Wade, Lebron, or any other 7 year NBA vet can earn in 2010 is going to be right around $17.5 million…which means $35 million in cap space is just barely enough to sign two free agents to max contracts.

Therefore, keeping Lee is feasible – assuming all my numbers are correct of course. Even if my numbers are wrong – let’s say they’re off by $2-$5 million – the Knicks shouldn’t have any trouble moving Gallinari, Chandler, and/or Lee for a smaller contract as part of the free agent signing process. As I said before, there’s also reason to believe Curry could be moved at some point. Even if the Knicks simply traded Curry for a smaller, longer contract, the cap situation improves.

So the math shows that keeping Lee AND participating in 2010’s free agency market is completely feasible. Considering the strong incentive that Wade, Lebron, and Bosh have to stay with their current teams, keeping Lee is the best course of action for the Knicks. If Wade and Lebron extend this summer (and I think they will), NY would look foolish trading Lee, an up-and-coming power forward with a knack for rebounding for Kleiza, a slightly under-achieving role player.

San Antonio NEEDS to get involved in the Gerald Wallace trade sweepstakes – he’s exactly what they need. A dynamic scorer and a solid defender, he’s got a great work ethic and he understands the Spurs ‘team-first’ philosophy. Not to mention the fact that Wallace gives the Spurs a decent chance of winning some games while Manu Ginobili (and now Tony Parker) recover.

Even better, Gerald Wallace is a player that wouldn’t cost the Spurs hardly anything.

Tell me you wouldn’t like to see Gerald Wallace, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan face off against the Hornets or the Lakers in the playoffs?

Here’s how San Antonio can get their hands on Gerald Wallace:

1. Get the Knicks involved. The Knicks would likely part with David Lee if it would also get rid of Eddy Curry, and the Spurs could send a draft pick NY’s way to make them feel good about it.

2. Get Larry Brown and Michael Jordan excited. This one doesn’t seem to hard – Okafor is a big-time rebounder and defender who struggles to score. Curry is a solid offensive player who can’t defend or rebound. Put them together and you’ve got a decent PF/C combination. Bring David Lee and Sean May off the bench and you’ve got a solid 2nd unit. Dare I say it, but Charlotte’s frontcourt might even be enviable.

3. Remind NY that they can’t hire Lebron if they don’t dump salary. Losing David Lee will likely be a hard pill to swallow, but the Knicks have got to realize that Lee is going to expect a solid contract before next season. Besides, isn’t getting rid of Curry a top priority? (except for maybe getting rid of Marbury?)

4. Part ways with two defensive stalwarts. San Antonio would need to send out about $8 million in contracts to get Wallace, and the only players that they can trade this early in the season that make any significant amount of money are Oberto and Bowen. After December 15th, a few more players are available to trade…but Wallace might be gone by then.

Here’s how the deal goes down:

1. Knicks send Curry and David Lee to Charlotte
2. Charlotte sends Wallace to San Antonio
3. San Antonio sends Oberto, Bowen, a small contract (Vaughan maybe?), and a draft pick to NY.

The Knicks will need to waive someone to make a deal, but that shouldn’t be too hard. Once a buyout is reached with Bowen and/or Oberto, they can bring back whoever they waived (maybe they can even bring Patrick Ewing Jr. back).

This deal makes a lot of sense for San Antonio, makes decent sense for the Knicks (cap space), and is possibly sensible for Charlotte. I think this trade’s got a shot…

Cleveland – My personal favorite, A.I. and Lebron could play together in a way that Melo and A.I. never will. Lebron is a much better 3pt shooter and passer than Melo, opening up a lot more scoring opportunities for A.I. (and the rest of the Cavs) that simply don’t exist in Denver. Additionally, if Cleveland had A.I., their offense wouldn’t grind to a halt when Lebron went to the bench. Finally, A.I.’s defensive liabilities won’t be as significant in Cleveland as they are in Denver. Denver would gladly take Delonte West back as their PG of the future, and Cleveland has some attractive expiring contracts. Cleveland throws in a late first round pick and we’ve got enough to make a deal.

The Knicks – Anyone else think that A.I. would thrive in D’Antoni’s system? The Knicks have no use for young bigs David Lee and Renaldo Balkman (who can’t shoot well enough to play for D’Antoni), whereas Denver could put both of these players to good use. Throw in Malik Rose’s expiring contract and Denver walks away from A.I. with salary cap relief and a couple of decent young players to show for their trouble.

Orlando – Playing Jameer Nelson and A.I. in the same backcourt would be rough defensively, but think of the offensive pressure you could put on teams with A.I. driving and dishing to either Dwight Howard or Rashard Lewis. Denver could get back Carlos Arroyo and address their point guard problem, and they might even be able to snag Torkoglu. With Torkoglu gone, Rashard Lewis moves back to SF (where he’s more lethal), and Orlando is just a legit PF away from making a championship run.

Toronto – Surround A.I. with shooters and see what happens – I guarantee he puts the fear of God in opposing defenses. A.I. would pack the fans in every night in Toronto, and adding him would demonstrate to Chris Bosh just how serious Toronto is about winning. Toronto could probably unload TJ Ford on Denver, something they would have to seriously consider. Besides, what’s the down side? This team isn’t going to get much better as currently constructed.

What kind of money does it take to get A.I. under a sign and trade? I’d say $10-12 million a year for three years gets it done. While A.I. stands to make about $21 million next year, his financial future is a little murky after that. First of all, you can figure that whatever team signs A.I. to a 3 year contract in 2009 (the league requires at least a 3 year deal for any veteran) will only guarantee the first year or two. Guaranteeing all three years would be asking a team to pay a 36 year old Iverson, and that doesn’t make much sense. What’s the money for A.I. next year? Could be as high as $8 million for two years, could be as low as the mid-level exception for three. So, his future earnings following next season range from $10 to $18 million. That’s a total of $31 to $39 million, with a substantial amount of risk involved for A.I. if things don’t go his way.

Next, A.I.’s got to evaluate the risk of getting hurt next season. If, God forbid, Iverson suffered a major injury, his career is probably over. Why not play it safe and lock up some more money now? A.I.’s no dummy – he knows as well as anyone just how much he risks injury with his playing style. It’s a testament to his greatness that he hasn’t already suffered a career-ending injury.

The Bottom Line: The smart money is to lock in $30-36 million for the next three years rather than make $21 million next season and hope for the best next summer. A.I.’s people have basically admitted as much, saying that A.I. wants to mimic Vince Carter’s contract renewal last season. Of course, if A.I. wants $10-12 million a year for the next three years, he’s going to need Denver’s help with a sign and trade. There’s no way it happens via free agency.

Jason Kidd to the NY Knicks for Zach Randolph and Jamal Crawford.

Why this trade makes sense for NY: Kidd would solve NY’s point guard problem and pave the way for a Marbury buyout. Shipping out Randolph would solve the Curry-Randolph fiasco. Most importantly, the NY Knicks are a team that needs leadership. A wily vet like Jason Kidd would pull this group of talented players together, and his talent level and skill is more than strong enough to withstand the criticism of the NY media. Of all the players in the league, Kidd could probably pull the Knicks together. Imagine what NY could do with their talent if they could all play together – the Knicks have one of the best rosters in the league (at least on paper). The NY Knicks would also save a fortune moving Crawford and Randolph – Kidd’s contract has another $20 million on it, whereas Crawford and Randolph’s contracts amount to more than $65 million thru 2011. The $40 million dollar savings could go towards Marbury’s buyout, as well as some sexual harassment training for the entire MSG staff (zing!).

Why this trade makes sense for NJ: The Nets need a legit post player and a reliable outside shooter. Don’t get me wrong – NJ isn’t going to be better without Jason Kidd. Losing him will be a big blow. But the reality is the guy’s leaving whether they want him to or not. Crawford can handle some of the PG duties, and Randolph’s dominance inside would take a lot of pressure off Vince Carter. Imagine a NJ starting five of Crawford, Richard Jefferson, Vince Carter, Zach Randolph, and a healthy Kristic. This trade would give NJ the tools to challenge Boston and Detroit. I’m sure some of you will argue that last point, but VC and RJ are a handful for any team. The current problem in NJ is that there’s no one inside or outside that can free up the lane for these two. Crawford’s 3pt range will punish teams for zoning up, as would Randolph’s back-to-the-basket game. NJ would be a fierce team come playoff time.

Why this trade will never happen: First of all, Isiah would need to leave. Kidd’s personality is too dominant for him to play for a coach like Isiah. Secondly, James Dolan would need to evolve as an owner. Dolan would have to recognize that he can’t spend his way to a championship – saving money is a big reason to make this deal. Dolan would also have to swallow his pride and make NJ a better team – something he’s probably not interesting in doing. Finally, Jason Kidd would have to recognize he’s not going to be traded to a contender. His contract is just too big – most teams in the league would have to decimate their roster to make a deal happen. Oh yeah, he’d also have to want to leave NJ really bad. The last guy that thought he was traded to NY broke out in tears…