Shocking, right?

Looking at Utah’s cap situation and the seemingly inevitable drama that would have followed the Jazz around next season – the “Where will Deron go?” hysteria – Utah made a gutsy decision and turned a great point guard into a very good point guard, an interesting rookie, and two draft picks.

The conclusions that we can draw are:

1. Sloan’s departure hurt the Jazz in more ways than one. Some might say that Williams hated Sloan, but the Jazz never (or almost never) lost 4 games in a row during the Sloan era.

2. Williams must have given Utah a signal about leaving. Why else would they trade the cornerstone of the franchise? He must have said or done something to show the people in Utah that he wasn’t on board for the long haul.

3. The Melo’ drama scared Utah. If we assume that Williams made it clear he wasn’t planning on sticking, then we have to wonder why Utah wouldn’t try to change his mind. It’s much easier to convince a superstar to stay than it is to replace him…but the Melo’ craziness must have shown Utah that keeping Williams was difficult. Not to mention all the media circus crap.

4. Utah isn’t going to fall off the map. Devin Harris can play, and despite his defensive problems Al Jefferson can play. Harris and Jefferson are a nice inside-out combo – throw in some shooting and Utah isn’t too bad.

The two draft picks are a nice pickup too – hopefully one of them is NJ’s and hopefully it’s unprotected. Houston’s “18 protected” pick that was rumored to be included in the Melo deal isn’t much of a first-rounder.

5. What happens to Milsap? I doubt that Utah trades him now, but moving Milsap seems like a foregone conclusion either this summer or before the next trade deadline. In all likelihood, Favors is good enough to replace him in the next year.

6. What happens if NJ can’t get Williams to agree to an extension? It’s high-stakes poker if New Jersey gives up Derrick Favors and picks for a guy who hasn’t committed. Bold.

It looks like small-market teams will be more likely than ever to jump the gun when a big player comes up for free agency. In this new era where players are all friends with one another, small-market superstars seem likely to leave…maybe that’s not a bad thing. If small-market teams build around good players, smart drafting, and fundamentals, they’ll be just as capable of playing for a championship as unbalanced “super teams” with little depth.

Raymond Felton is a good passer, a decent defender, and a better shooter than Miller, and therefore he’s a better running mate for Brandon Roy. He’s also younger, so he’ll have a chance to develop chemistry with Portland’s new franchise player LaMarcus Aldridge.

In other words, Felton is a better fit than Miller.

In my opinion, Denver will be open to trading Felton right away because:

• Lawson is the new star in Denver
• Lawson has a bigger upside than Felton, which is important for a rebuilding team
• Lawson is cheaper

Therefore, if Portland is willing to offer something of substance in addition to Miller’s psuedo-expiring deal, I think they can get Denver to send Felton just a little further West.

What About Devin Harris?

It’s also been rumored that, should Carmelo head to New York, New Jersey and Portland will make a deal that sends Devin Harris, Travis Outlaw, and Anthony Morrow to Portland for Andre Miller, Joel Pryzbilla, and a youngster. I don’t like this trade for two reasons:

1. The Travis Outlaw contract – 5 years and $7 million per – is horrible.
2. Felton is probably available, and he’s a better point guard than Harris

Harris has more speed, and he could certainly be the focal-point of a new Blazers offense if Roy is indeed never again the player he once was. Still, Portland is winning games with Andre Miller, and Ray Felton is more like Andre Miller than Devin Harris is.

Felton’s contract is better too. Most teams are looking for ways to reduce their future salary commitments right now, so trading for Felton is a better move in that regard as well.

Bottom Line: If Denver is willing to move Felton (and I’m nearly certain that they will be), Portland should get involved. Ray Felton is a younger, better-shooting and more athletic version of Andre Miller, and he’s a better pure point guard than Devin Harris. He’s an upgrade now and a better player for the future.

1. Phoenix can win almost as many games without Amare as they can with him. If you saw Phoenix and Dallas play last Thursday, you know that Phoenix has a bunch of scrappy young athletic bigs that can shoot and finish. I’m not saying they’re better without Amare – no chance – but they’re not much worse is he leaves town.
2. Phoenix could lose Amare this summer for nothing.
3. Phoenix can’t afford Amare if he decides not to opt out. Phoenix needs Amare off the books this summer if they want to make some moves and make their team better without going over the luxury cap.
4. Phoenix can still get under the luxury cap. If Phoenix can trade for a talented young PF while also reducing salary by about $3 million (possible), they might consider trading Channing Frye to a team with a trade exception (hello Nuggets!) to get under the cap. This would be HUGE financially.

Here’s the trick for Phoenix: whatever move Phoenix makes, it has to be viewed as part of a bigger plan to get better. If Steve Nash decides Phoenix is throwing in the towel and asks for a trade, Phoenix becomes a less talented version of the Golden State Warriors. Here are the possibilities:

Amare To Chicago

Chicago can offer Phoenix a great package in terms of talent: Hinrich & Tyrus Thomas for Amare would make Phoenix deeper, allow J-Rich to move to SF, and give Phoenix a reasonable way to rest Nash while Dragic rounds into form. I’d also guess that T.Thomas would look good playing next to Steve Nash (sort of like a young Amare).

However, I don’t think Chicago is interested in trading for Amare right now. Unless it becomes clear to Chicago that they have no chance of signing D-Wade or Bosh this summer, I think they’ll sit on their hands and see what happens. Chicago can always bid on Amare this summer.

Besides, Chicago has been playing well lately. Why break-up a team that might sneak into the 2nd round?

Amare to NJ

The Nets have the right combo for Phoenix: Yi Jianlin (good young talent), expiring contracts, a first round draft pick, and a way to move Phoenix out of the luxury tax this season.

Why it works for Phoenix:

• Yi’s potential is something Phoenix can probably sell to fans and Steve Nash
• A trade of Yi, Battie, and Simmons for Amare and Jarron Collins saves Phoenix $3.8 million in salary. Phoenix could then dump Frye OR pay someone to take Dooling off their hands and get out of tax territory.

Why it works for NJ:

• Bosh, Lebron, and D-Wade aren’t even going to consider NJ if they finish with the worst record of all time. Amare is the consolation prize (and not a bad one at that).
• If NJ trades for Amare and he opts out, NJ is still the most likely to sign him.
• NJ has enough cap space to extend Amare and still be a player in free agency this summer.
• Trading for Amare is the easiest way to end the nightmare for NJ’s fans. He would help them win enough games to avoid the worst record of all time, yet not so many that they would wreck their chances at the 1st overall draft pick.

Amare to Miami

Miami is a long-shot to land Amare simply because they won’t part with Beasley, they don’t have “extra” draft picks sitting around like NJ, and they can’t make a deal that saves Phoenix a lot of money. Trading for Amare would also mean that Miami losses any hope of signing Bosh this summer.

Miami is going to wait for a shot at signing Bosh, and they should.

Amare to Cleveland

Cleveland might offer Phoenix Big-Z and JJ Hickson + filler and a very late first-round pick…but this probably won’t happen.

• This deal isn’t that great for Phoenix – they can probably do better in terms of talent.
• Cleveland is taking an awful risk. If Amare doesn’t opt out, Cleveland won’t be able to take a run at Chris Bosh.
• Cleveland doesn’t need to make a change right now. They’re arguably the best or 2nd best team in the league.

Amare to Golden State

Who knows on this one. Nellie is irrational, the Warriors don’t have a long-term plan, and it’s impossible to read the management in Golden State. However, Phoenix would be hard-pressed to turn down a package that included Biedrins, one of Golden State’s talented youngsters, a draft pick, and a possible reunion with Raja Bell. If Golden State wants Amare, they can get him…but there’s no clear indication that they really want him.

Talk about your lop-sided trades. According to ESPN, the Milwaukee Bucks have shipped Yi Jianlin and Bobby Simmons to the New Jersey Nets in exchange for Richard Jefferson.

Let me put it another way – the Bucks traded a soft PF (Yi) and an incredibly overpaid journeyman SF (Bobby) for a solid locker-room leader and All-Star (Richard).

You’re probably asking yourself how this type of deal happens. Simple. Kiki Vandeweghe. The same Kiki Vandeweghe that bid against himself when trading for Kenyon Martin. The same Kiki Vandeweghe that drafted Nikoloz Tskitishvili. The same Kiki Vandeweghe that traded the rights to Jameer Nelson for Julius Hodge.

Don’t get me wrong – I think Yi Jianlian has an upside. However, contrary to popular belief, I doubt he’ll ever turn into Dirk Nowitzki. I see him bearing more resemblance to Troy Murphy – a solid player, but no all-star. My problem is that New Jersey clearly could have gotten more for Jefferson. How about Barbosa and Diaw, for instance? The Nets lack a PF (Boone is too young to start, Kristic is too slow to play PF), and Diaw could have filled that need quite well. Pairing Barbosa and Devin Harris together would have given New Jersey the fastest back court in the league and fueled a tremendous transition game. V.C. could have played SF and been the go-to guy in the half court.

Lamar Odom might have been a good trade option too – assuming NJ could have picked up a complementary piece like Sasha Vujacic or Ronny Turiaf as part of the deal.

Then there’s Detroit – a team desperate to add an athletic SF and scorer. Tell me RJ couldn’t have been had in exchange for Rasheed Wallace (the PF New Jersey needs) or some combo of Tayshaun Prince and a young talented big (like Maxiell or Amir Johnson)?

Josh Howard might have been available too, but perhaps that’s wishful thinking.

I realize that the Nets did this deal to clear salary cap room for 2010 so they could take a run at Lebron. However, considering the Knicks will also have cap room at that time, and that the Cavs can offer LBJ the best deal of any team in the league, it seems foolish to trade one of today’s better small forwards for a chance at signing Lebron two years from now. What if (God forbid) LBJ gets hurt? NJ gives up Richard Jefferson for a pipe dream.

I guess my problem is that I don’t understand why this deal is being executed now. Seems to me that this deal would have been available all summer long. There aren’t any draft picks involved, and Milwaukee seems desperate to unload one of their many soft forwards (Simmons, Yi, Charlie V). At least that’s my opinion…perhaps there’s more to the story.

Jason Kidd to the NY Knicks for Zach Randolph and Jamal Crawford.

Why this trade makes sense for NY: Kidd would solve NY’s point guard problem and pave the way for a Marbury buyout. Shipping out Randolph would solve the Curry-Randolph fiasco. Most importantly, the NY Knicks are a team that needs leadership. A wily vet like Jason Kidd would pull this group of talented players together, and his talent level and skill is more than strong enough to withstand the criticism of the NY media. Of all the players in the league, Kidd could probably pull the Knicks together. Imagine what NY could do with their talent if they could all play together – the Knicks have one of the best rosters in the league (at least on paper). The NY Knicks would also save a fortune moving Crawford and Randolph – Kidd’s contract has another $20 million on it, whereas Crawford and Randolph’s contracts amount to more than $65 million thru 2011. The $40 million dollar savings could go towards Marbury’s buyout, as well as some sexual harassment training for the entire MSG staff (zing!).

Why this trade makes sense for NJ: The Nets need a legit post player and a reliable outside shooter. Don’t get me wrong – NJ isn’t going to be better without Jason Kidd. Losing him will be a big blow. But the reality is the guy’s leaving whether they want him to or not. Crawford can handle some of the PG duties, and Randolph’s dominance inside would take a lot of pressure off Vince Carter. Imagine a NJ starting five of Crawford, Richard Jefferson, Vince Carter, Zach Randolph, and a healthy Kristic. This trade would give NJ the tools to challenge Boston and Detroit. I’m sure some of you will argue that last point, but VC and RJ are a handful for any team. The current problem in NJ is that there’s no one inside or outside that can free up the lane for these two. Crawford’s 3pt range will punish teams for zoning up, as would Randolph’s back-to-the-basket game. NJ would be a fierce team come playoff time.

Why this trade will never happen: First of all, Isiah would need to leave. Kidd’s personality is too dominant for him to play for a coach like Isiah. Secondly, James Dolan would need to evolve as an owner. Dolan would have to recognize that he can’t spend his way to a championship – saving money is a big reason to make this deal. Dolan would also have to swallow his pride and make NJ a better team – something he’s probably not interesting in doing. Finally, Jason Kidd would have to recognize he’s not going to be traded to a contender. His contract is just too big – most teams in the league would have to decimate their roster to make a deal happen. Oh yeah, he’d also have to want to leave NJ really bad. The last guy that thought he was traded to NY broke out in tears…

10. Jermaine O’Neal – Trade rumors have been swirling around Jermaine O’Neal for a couple of years now, but his big contract combined with his injury history usually scares teams away from making a real offer. Still, he can make a difference on most teams in the league, and Indiana is interested in getting younger.

9. The New York Knicks – Until Isiah is fired, there’s always a chance that a NY Knick will be traded. With possibly one or two exceptions, every player on this team is available.

8. Jason Kidd – Even if you disregard the rumors surrounding Kidd’s supposedly “fake” migraine from a couple of weeks ago, he is still likely to be traded. Kidd is an all-star point guard that has a high market value, especially for his age. NJ may want to “get while the gettin’s good” and cash in on Kidd while he’s having a career year. Only his huge contract keeps him from being higher on this list.

7. Ron Artest – If it wasn’t for Artest’s domestic abuse problem back in March, he might have been moved this summer. Despite the possibility that Artest could go off the deep end at any time, he’s a tremendous and desirable talent that’s wasting away in Sacramento. And his contract is so cheap that he can go virtually anywhere…

6. Kwame Brown – Brown’s huge expiring contract is trade bait, and Kobe and Phil Jackson are both expecting the Lakers to make a move that will improve the team. Kwame is the Laker’s most trade-able player, so he’s as good as gone.

5. Jason Williams – Just like the situation in Los Angeles, something has to be done in Miami. Jason Williams has a huge expiring contract that will facilitate just about any trade, and there are more than a few teams looking for a way to reduce salary.

4. Mike Bibby – It’s no secret that Bibby was unhappy in Sacramento last season, and his skill set would be highly valued by a lot of teams looking for a scoring point guard (Cleveland and Miami, among others). Bibby and Artest don’t get along either, making it seem that one of them leaving Sac-Town is a foregone conclusion.

3. Pau Gasol – Chicago desperately needs some inside scoring, and Pau is a back-to-the-basket player that Chicago can probably get for a discount. The ownership in Memphis is trying to sell the team, and they might think that moving Gasol for some younger and less expensive players would make the sale easier. This will be an interesting trade — who will come out ahead? Chicago is desperate, but Memphis has no need for Gasol’s services as they try and structure their team for a sale.

2. Andre Miller – Philly has absolutely nothing to gain by keeping Andre Miller. Granted, the team plays better with him than they will without him, but let’s face it — Philly isn’t going to win anything this season. If they can move Miller for a young player or two and a draft pick/expiring contract, they should pull the trigger. Miller’s a great passer that can run an offense, and Philly will most likely get some solid offers. Just don’t expect Miller to go to Miami (Riley hates pudgy players).

1. The Chicago Bulls – Any one of the Bulls players, and I mean any one of them, are likely to be traded. Chicago has to do something to add a scoring big, and Pau Gasol and Jermaine O’Neal both fit the bill. Which Bulls players are more likely to go? Look for Nocioni and Ben Gordon to leave — they’re the easiest to replace.