PG – Wade, Chalmers, or Mike Miller – Wade is probably going to spend a lot of time at PG simply because they need Miller’s shooting, and Miller doesn’t have a chance of guarding speedy PGs like Rondo, Jameer Nelson, Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings, etc.

SG – Wade or Mike Miller

SF – LeBron

PF – Bosh

C – Haslem

Bench – Chalmers, Joel Anthony (who?), Raja Bell (I’m guessing on this one, but I feel pretty confident), and anyone who wants a ring bad enough to play for a paltry 1.3 million.

The question is, how will this group play and how will they match up with the rest of Eastern Conference?

Heat: Chemistry and Coaching

1. A good friend of mine who played college basketball once told me that “everyone is happy with their role as long as they’re winning.” While this axiom is probably true, I’m a little skeptical that Wade and LeBron can happily co-exist. It seems that Wade is set to be the closer on this team, and while I think LeBron will probably appreciate that, it remains to be seen if these guys will be able to share the glory.

2. LeBron is used to having full control. It’s well documented that LeBron and his entourage had free reign in Cleveland. How will he deal with the iron fist of Pat Riley? No more cronies on the team plane, no more calling his own plays, etc.

3. Coach Spolestra seems like he’s about to get screwed over by Riley. It won’t shock me is Spolestra takes a backseat around the holidays. While this might seem like a good thing, it’s important to note that a team with a lame duck coach usually isn’t very disciplined.

Truth be told, these three issues are probably very small. Still, you never know.

How The Heat Match-up

Assuming everyone is healthy (and that’s a big assumption), here’s how the new-look Heat will probably match-up with their potential Eastern Conference rivals:

Boston – Rond0 and Allen are at least as capable as any combination of Wade, Miller, and Chalmers. Rondo’s jumpshot will continue to improve, Allen will always be a great outside threat, and neither Wade or Miller has a hope of guarding Rondo effectively for 40 minutes a night. Wade will come close, but only at the expense of a lot of offensive production. Miami’s lack of a true PG will hurt them against the Celtics.

At the wing, it’s clear that LeBron is better than Pierce. However, Pierce will still manage to make LeBron work for his points just as he has done in years past. Finally, at the 4 and the 5, I think Bosh + Haslem + some vet’s minimum bigs are no better than a rotation of Garnett, Perkins, Jermaine O’Neal, and Rasheed Wallace (assuming he doesn’t retire).

A series between these two will likely come down to coaching and chemistry, which is why I mentioned all of that first. Boston is going to miss Thibodeau in this one, so I’d call it 50-50.

Orlando – The x-factor in Orlando is Dwight Howard. If he can somehow learn to hit his free throws and make an occasional jumpshot, he can single-handedly dominate the Heat. Bosh is too soft to bang with Howard, and frankly the Heat can’t afford to let Bosh guard him anyways (the risk of foul trouble is just too great). There’s also the fact that Gortat is going to be significantly better than any big on Miami’s bench. If Dwight and Gortat improve a little (and they probably will), Orlando’s front court is going to dominate.

As for the wing, I’m assuming we’ll see more of Rashard Lewis at the 3. If so, that’s a tough match-up for both teams. LeBron doesn’t have the height to guard Lewis, and Lewis doesn’t have the speed to cover LeBron. It will be interesting, but LeBron probably has the edge here.

Finally, Orlando’s back court of Nelson, Duhon, Vince Carter, and JJ Redick (assuming he’s retained) is going to be at least as good as Miami’s rotation. Wade is great of course, but he’s going to need to do it all on both ends to have a chance. I’m not saying he can’t, I’m just saying that 40 minutes of chasing Redick or Nelson off screens, and/or hounding Duhon and Nelson as they bring the ball up the court, and/or keeping Vince out of the lane is a big workload for the Heat’s primary scorer.

If Dwight Howard improves into a better shooter (as he should), Miami will lose to the Magic because of a lack of rebounding, size, and subsequent foul trouble. If Howard doesn’t improve, the Magic will still have a very slight edge over Miami.

Chicago, Milwaukee, and Atlanta will all present challenges to the Heat, but only the Bucks and the Bulls have a clear advantage over Miami (both teams have a much better frontcourt).

• Chicago’s lack of outside shooting will make it hard for them to beat the Heat, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me to see Chicago win some tight games and take a series to 7 games.
• The Bucks shouldn’t be counted out either – Scott Skiles coaches defense, and the Heat will struggle to win a slow, grind-it-out game. With Bogut’s clear superiority at the center position and an improving Jennings, this team will threaten any team on any given night.
• Atlanta seems like they’re missing something. If they find it (I’m not sure what it is) they can be very good. A new coach might be enough to move (only a true center and a better defender at PG would help).

Who wins the conference? It’s too early to make a prediction, but if I had to guess today I’d say Orlando or Boston. Miami’s lack of front court players is a real weakness, and their lack of consistent outside shooting (Wade and LeBron are too streaky) will make it hard for them to win a grind-it-out game against either squad.

Kurt Thomas would be a great Denver Nugget

Here’s what I like about Denver trading for Kurt Thomas (aside from the fact that Thomas is a better player than Steven Hunter):

1. Thomas is an excellent defender with veteran savvy. He’s not as quick as he used to be, but he understands position and he’s a big body. He’s more than good enough to help lock down the middle on the second unit, and he’s still fast enough to guard some of the NBA’s slower bigs (Yao, Tim Duncan, and Shaq) for a few minutes per night.
2. Thomas has great shooting range for a center. Thomas can step back just past the free throw line and knock down jumpers all day long. Denver only has one big with that shot in his repertoire (Nene), and he already plays a lot of minutes. [To be honest, I think Thomas is probably a better shooter than Nene.]
3. He’s a good rebounder. He pulled down one rebound every 3.5 minutes last year in San Antonio – that’s better than Nene (1 rebound every 4.2 minutes last season), much better than K-Mart (5.3 minutes per) and only slightly less than Chris Anderson (3.3 minutes per).
4. He fits well at PF or C. He’s got the length to play center but he’s not so big that he can’t play power forward. If and/or when Nene, K-Mart, or Chris Anderson miss a game, Thomas can step in and cover.
5. He’s easy to trade again later. If Denver decides to make a trade again around mid-season, there isn’t a team in the league that wouldn’t be interested in Kurt Thomas. Not only is he the consummate professional that helps teams win, but he’s probably going to be interested in a buyout if he lands on a team with no prospects. If Denver works out a deal with a team headed for the lottery, Thomas is more of an asset than Steven Hunter because Thomas would likely be interested in a buyout.

I’m guessing that Milwaukee would entertain a swap of Hunter for Thomas. Hunter’s salary is slightly lower, and going forward Hunter would be a better long-term prospect (Hunter is still relatively young and might succeed in the right surroundings). If Denver offered a little cash to go along with Hunter, they’d have a serviceable backup for Nene with very little invested.

Besides, I don’t see Thomas wanting to stay in Milwaukee. He’ll be 37 when the season starts, and I doubt he’s interested in coming off the bench for a team that would be lucky to make the playoffs.

What do you think – could Denver work out a trade of Hunter + cash for Kurt Thomas? Should they?

Talk about your lop-sided trades. According to ESPN, the Milwaukee Bucks have shipped Yi Jianlin and Bobby Simmons to the New Jersey Nets in exchange for Richard Jefferson.

Let me put it another way – the Bucks traded a soft PF (Yi) and an incredibly overpaid journeyman SF (Bobby) for a solid locker-room leader and All-Star (Richard).

You’re probably asking yourself how this type of deal happens. Simple. Kiki Vandeweghe. The same Kiki Vandeweghe that bid against himself when trading for Kenyon Martin. The same Kiki Vandeweghe that drafted Nikoloz Tskitishvili. The same Kiki Vandeweghe that traded the rights to Jameer Nelson for Julius Hodge.

Don’t get me wrong – I think Yi Jianlian has an upside. However, contrary to popular belief, I doubt he’ll ever turn into Dirk Nowitzki. I see him bearing more resemblance to Troy Murphy – a solid player, but no all-star. My problem is that New Jersey clearly could have gotten more for Jefferson. How about Barbosa and Diaw, for instance? The Nets lack a PF (Boone is too young to start, Kristic is too slow to play PF), and Diaw could have filled that need quite well. Pairing Barbosa and Devin Harris together would have given New Jersey the fastest back court in the league and fueled a tremendous transition game. V.C. could have played SF and been the go-to guy in the half court.

Lamar Odom might have been a good trade option too – assuming NJ could have picked up a complementary piece like Sasha Vujacic or Ronny Turiaf as part of the deal.

Then there’s Detroit – a team desperate to add an athletic SF and scorer. Tell me RJ couldn’t have been had in exchange for Rasheed Wallace (the PF New Jersey needs) or some combo of Tayshaun Prince and a young talented big (like Maxiell or Amir Johnson)?

Josh Howard might have been available too, but perhaps that’s wishful thinking.

I realize that the Nets did this deal to clear salary cap room for 2010 so they could take a run at Lebron. However, considering the Knicks will also have cap room at that time, and that the Cavs can offer LBJ the best deal of any team in the league, it seems foolish to trade one of today’s better small forwards for a chance at signing Lebron two years from now. What if (God forbid) LBJ gets hurt? NJ gives up Richard Jefferson for a pipe dream.

I guess my problem is that I don’t understand why this deal is being executed now. Seems to me that this deal would have been available all summer long. There aren’t any draft picks involved, and Milwaukee seems desperate to unload one of their many soft forwards (Simmons, Yi, Charlie V). At least that’s my opinion…perhaps there’s more to the story.

1) The Nuggets got out to an early lead – Denver was up 25-11 at one point in the first quarter, which is consistent with their goal of running visitors as much as possible as early as possible. The idea is that the mile-high air is too thin for visiting teams. The Bucks got tied it up by the fourth, but Denver ultimately prevailed. If the Nuggets learn to hold a lead through four quarters, look out.

2) The Nuggets have dancers AND cheerleaders! – Awesome! I already knew this — I’ve known it for years — but I’m still excited.

3) Yi Jianlian is a rookie – After all the attention this kid got this summer, it was easy to think he might be the second coming of Dirk Nowitzki. While Yi might be as good as Dirk someday, this year he’s just a rookie. He’s hesitant with the ball, he’s not always sure where he should be, and the Bucks offense suffers when Yi is in for Charlie Villanueva (Charlie had a great game tonight – 21 pts, 11 reb, and 5 assists). When Milwaukee went small, Yi spent some time at PF and picked up 3 fouls in about 5 minutes. I don’t think Yi will spend much time playing PF until he learns to stop fouling.

4) Kenyon Martin is back — It’s still early, and he’ll need more time to get up to full speed, but K-Mart is healthy. He’s got a bounce in his step, he’s clearly comfortable with his knees, and he’s become one of Denver’s most active players. He runs the break better than any other big on the team, he steps out faster, and he’s got the energy and athleticism to play a little full-court press. If K-Mart can be this energetic all season, the Nuggets defense just improved 50%.

5) Milwaukee isn’t a playoff team — The Bucks need an interior presence to make the playoffs. Ruffin is a beast defensively, but he’s also a turnover monster lacking offense. Bogut isn’t an inside player. Gadzuric and Voskuhl are past their prime. That leaves Villanueva and Jianlian to play PF/C. Villanueva is serviceable at PF, but he’s clearly a SF. Jianlian needs time, toughness, and muscle to be the player Milwaukee needs him to be.