PG – Wade, Chalmers, or Mike Miller – Wade is probably going to spend a lot of time at PG simply because they need Miller’s shooting, and Miller doesn’t have a chance of guarding speedy PGs like Rondo, Jameer Nelson, Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings, etc.

SG – Wade or Mike Miller

SF – LeBron

PF – Bosh

C – Haslem

Bench – Chalmers, Joel Anthony (who?), Raja Bell (I’m guessing on this one, but I feel pretty confident), and anyone who wants a ring bad enough to play for a paltry 1.3 million.

The question is, how will this group play and how will they match up with the rest of Eastern Conference?

Heat: Chemistry and Coaching

1. A good friend of mine who played college basketball once told me that “everyone is happy with their role as long as they’re winning.” While this axiom is probably true, I’m a little skeptical that Wade and LeBron can happily co-exist. It seems that Wade is set to be the closer on this team, and while I think LeBron will probably appreciate that, it remains to be seen if these guys will be able to share the glory.

2. LeBron is used to having full control. It’s well documented that LeBron and his entourage had free reign in Cleveland. How will he deal with the iron fist of Pat Riley? No more cronies on the team plane, no more calling his own plays, etc.

3. Coach Spolestra seems like he’s about to get screwed over by Riley. It won’t shock me is Spolestra takes a backseat around the holidays. While this might seem like a good thing, it’s important to note that a team with a lame duck coach usually isn’t very disciplined.

Truth be told, these three issues are probably very small. Still, you never know.

How The Heat Match-up

Assuming everyone is healthy (and that’s a big assumption), here’s how the new-look Heat will probably match-up with their potential Eastern Conference rivals:

Boston – Rond0 and Allen are at least as capable as any combination of Wade, Miller, and Chalmers. Rondo’s jumpshot will continue to improve, Allen will always be a great outside threat, and neither Wade or Miller has a hope of guarding Rondo effectively for 40 minutes a night. Wade will come close, but only at the expense of a lot of offensive production. Miami’s lack of a true PG will hurt them against the Celtics.

At the wing, it’s clear that LeBron is better than Pierce. However, Pierce will still manage to make LeBron work for his points just as he has done in years past. Finally, at the 4 and the 5, I think Bosh + Haslem + some vet’s minimum bigs are no better than a rotation of Garnett, Perkins, Jermaine O’Neal, and Rasheed Wallace (assuming he doesn’t retire).

A series between these two will likely come down to coaching and chemistry, which is why I mentioned all of that first. Boston is going to miss Thibodeau in this one, so I’d call it 50-50.

Orlando – The x-factor in Orlando is Dwight Howard. If he can somehow learn to hit his free throws and make an occasional jumpshot, he can single-handedly dominate the Heat. Bosh is too soft to bang with Howard, and frankly the Heat can’t afford to let Bosh guard him anyways (the risk of foul trouble is just too great). There’s also the fact that Gortat is going to be significantly better than any big on Miami’s bench. If Dwight and Gortat improve a little (and they probably will), Orlando’s front court is going to dominate.

As for the wing, I’m assuming we’ll see more of Rashard Lewis at the 3. If so, that’s a tough match-up for both teams. LeBron doesn’t have the height to guard Lewis, and Lewis doesn’t have the speed to cover LeBron. It will be interesting, but LeBron probably has the edge here.

Finally, Orlando’s back court of Nelson, Duhon, Vince Carter, and JJ Redick (assuming he’s retained) is going to be at least as good as Miami’s rotation. Wade is great of course, but he’s going to need to do it all on both ends to have a chance. I’m not saying he can’t, I’m just saying that 40 minutes of chasing Redick or Nelson off screens, and/or hounding Duhon and Nelson as they bring the ball up the court, and/or keeping Vince out of the lane is a big workload for the Heat’s primary scorer.

If Dwight Howard improves into a better shooter (as he should), Miami will lose to the Magic because of a lack of rebounding, size, and subsequent foul trouble. If Howard doesn’t improve, the Magic will still have a very slight edge over Miami.

Chicago, Milwaukee, and Atlanta will all present challenges to the Heat, but only the Bucks and the Bulls have a clear advantage over Miami (both teams have a much better frontcourt).

• Chicago’s lack of outside shooting will make it hard for them to beat the Heat, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me to see Chicago win some tight games and take a series to 7 games.
• The Bucks shouldn’t be counted out either – Scott Skiles coaches defense, and the Heat will struggle to win a slow, grind-it-out game. With Bogut’s clear superiority at the center position and an improving Jennings, this team will threaten any team on any given night.
• Atlanta seems like they’re missing something. If they find it (I’m not sure what it is) they can be very good. A new coach might be enough to move (only a true center and a better defender at PG would help).

Who wins the conference? It’s too early to make a prediction, but if I had to guess today I’d say Orlando or Boston. Miami’s lack of front court players is a real weakness, and their lack of consistent outside shooting (Wade and LeBron are too streaky) will make it hard for them to win a grind-it-out game against either squad.

1. Confirming the existence of the list hurts Bosh’s image with Toronto’s fans. The fact that a list officially exists hurts Bosh’s standing with fans. Colangelo wouldn’t do that to his star player unless he felt like his chances of staying in Toronto were slim.

2. Colangelo is starting the sign-and-trade ball rolling. Now that NBA GM’s are aware Bosh can be had, it’s time for them to start calling Toronto and making a pitch to Colangelo. Obviously, the final move is up to Chris Bosh…but if someone calls and offers a superstar to Toronto to try and acquire Bosh, that’s going to help set the value for a sign-and-trade. The next question is…

Where Is Bosh Headed?

Here are the four teams Bosh supposedly wants to play for next year and my estimation of their chances of trading for him.

Chicago – Unless they’re willing to part with Joakim Noah, I think the other teams on this list can make a better offer. I suppose that Bosh could try and force his way to Chicago, but the best move for everyone is to work together. Without giving up Noah, the best players Chicago can offer are Hinrich (who Toronto doesn’t need), Deng (overpaid and also a guy Toronto doesn’t need), and then a nice inexpensive young PF (Gibson or Johnson). Granted, Chicago can throw some picks at Toronto, but so can most of the teams on this list.

Lakers – This one makes a hell of a lot of sense if the rumors of Bynum’s availability are true. Bynum for Bosh is as close to a win-win as Toronto can get. Having said that, if the Lakers win the championship, why would they change their team? If the Lakers want to offer Bynum, they’ll have the best offer on the table.

Miami – Miami’s chances are better than Chicago, but they’re still sort of slim. Miami’s best trade pieces are Beasley and draft picks (including the 18th pick this summer). Miami shouldn’t be counted out – Beasley isn’t a bad return on Bosh – but it’s going to take pressure from Bosh to make this happen.

By the way – I could see Toronto packaging Calderon with Bosh if Miami gets involved…but Miami is going to have to sacrifice their draft picks for the next few years to get it done.

New York – The Knicks seem like a long shot to land Bosh in a sign and trade. Not only are they division rivals, but they don’t have a lot of talent they can send back. They’ve also given most of their draft picks away. One interesting wrinkle, however, could be trading both Bosh and Turkoglu for Curry and Gallinari.

• If I’m running things in Toronto, the opportunity to dump Turk would be tempting, especially if I got a cheap young player of equivalent talent in return. Curry might actually be able to help Toronto, but if he can’t, it’s a small price to pay to be out from under Turk’s ridiculous deal.
• If I’m running things in New York, I look at this deal because it helps me convince Joe Johnson to come to the Big Apple. Turk is overpaid for sure, but he’s also a mis-match SF who can help open up the middle.

In any case, I think the market for Bosh hinges on how the Lakers play in the Finals. If Gasol exhibits some new-found toughness, L.A. will consider sliding him over to center and bringing in Bosh. If not, it’s going to be hard to give up on Bynum…unless of course L.A. tanks against Boston, but I don’t think that will happen.

Dallas knows they don’t quite have enough to get over the hump right now, so they’ve been exploring a trade for Jason Kidd. While I’m a huge fan of Jason Kidd, I don’t think he makes Dallas a championship team because he doesn’t help them in the post. But what about Shaq? Riley has hinted that he might be available saying that a contending team would “value Shaq’s production” (then quickly denying a trade is possible – ya right).

The downsides to trading for Shaq are numerous – Shaq is getting kind of old and kind of fat (at least by NBA standards – no disrespect), his contract is huge ($20 million a year), and he just isn’t the dominant player he once was. But that doesn’t mean Shaq isn’t still effective – he’s a reliable post presence that would probably still command a double team in a playoff game. Dallas could use his skills, and owner Mark Cuban isn’t afraid of spending money to win. Playing for Dallas, Shaq gets at least one more chance to show just how dominant he can be.

Shaq in Dallas would be an upgrade.

The big question – what would Dallas have to give up to get Shaq? Jason Terry seems to be a likely candidate – he’s not a primary option in Dallas any more, but his ability to dish combined with his excellent shooting (39% career behind the arc) makes him a good back court compliment to Dwayne Wade. Miami isn’t going to be satisfied with taking back just a 30 year old PG – they’re probably going to want to get a big back (Diop), an expiring contract (George), and Miami is probably going to try to unload Smush Parker as part of any deal. Dallas might have to surrender a draft pick or two, and Dallas would also need to include a fourth player (probably Trenton Hassell) to make the numbers work.

So Dallas gives up Terry, Diop, Devean George, and Trenton Hassell and they get back Shaq and Smush. Sounds sort of one-sided until you consider that Dallas will have Shaq’s $20 million a year contract. Dallas will be hog-tied by the salary cap for the next two years. However, I think owner Mark Cuban would live with that if it meant winning a championship or two. It’s hard to imagine that Josh Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, and Shaquille O’Neal aren’t enough to challenge Phoenix and San Antonio for the western conference title, especially considering they’ll still have Stackhouse and Devin Harris.

In this scenario I’ve created, Miami would only have 8 players under contract next year with a total salary of less than $45 million…that’s a lot of cap space. Miami rebuilds around D-Wade and Terry, with the ability to try and sign un-restricted free agents in the summer of 2008. Shawn Marion and Antwan Jamison will both be available, as well as Ron Artest. Most importantly, trading Shaq gives Miami a chance to rebuild now that it’s clear they’re not a contender in their current make-up. If Miami can pick-up Shawn Marion in the summer, they’re right back in the playoff mix next year.

The big problems with this trade:

• Riley would have to admit defeat by trading Shaq.

• Dallas would lose some key players that won’t be easy to replace.

• Shaq’s ability to get up and down the court in Dallas will be limited.

• Dallas will miss Terry’s bench scoring.

This trade probably won’t happen – it’s too risky for Dallas (especially if Shaq gets hurt), but it’s a neat idea…

10. Jermaine O’Neal – Trade rumors have been swirling around Jermaine O’Neal for a couple of years now, but his big contract combined with his injury history usually scares teams away from making a real offer. Still, he can make a difference on most teams in the league, and Indiana is interested in getting younger.

9. The New York Knicks – Until Isiah is fired, there’s always a chance that a NY Knick will be traded. With possibly one or two exceptions, every player on this team is available.

8. Jason Kidd – Even if you disregard the rumors surrounding Kidd’s supposedly “fake” migraine from a couple of weeks ago, he is still likely to be traded. Kidd is an all-star point guard that has a high market value, especially for his age. NJ may want to “get while the gettin’s good” and cash in on Kidd while he’s having a career year. Only his huge contract keeps him from being higher on this list.

7. Ron Artest – If it wasn’t for Artest’s domestic abuse problem back in March, he might have been moved this summer. Despite the possibility that Artest could go off the deep end at any time, he’s a tremendous and desirable talent that’s wasting away in Sacramento. And his contract is so cheap that he can go virtually anywhere…

6. Kwame Brown – Brown’s huge expiring contract is trade bait, and Kobe and Phil Jackson are both expecting the Lakers to make a move that will improve the team. Kwame is the Laker’s most trade-able player, so he’s as good as gone.

5. Jason Williams – Just like the situation in Los Angeles, something has to be done in Miami. Jason Williams has a huge expiring contract that will facilitate just about any trade, and there are more than a few teams looking for a way to reduce salary.

4. Mike Bibby – It’s no secret that Bibby was unhappy in Sacramento last season, and his skill set would be highly valued by a lot of teams looking for a scoring point guard (Cleveland and Miami, among others). Bibby and Artest don’t get along either, making it seem that one of them leaving Sac-Town is a foregone conclusion.

3. Pau Gasol – Chicago desperately needs some inside scoring, and Pau is a back-to-the-basket player that Chicago can probably get for a discount. The ownership in Memphis is trying to sell the team, and they might think that moving Gasol for some younger and less expensive players would make the sale easier. This will be an interesting trade — who will come out ahead? Chicago is desperate, but Memphis has no need for Gasol’s services as they try and structure their team for a sale.

2. Andre Miller – Philly has absolutely nothing to gain by keeping Andre Miller. Granted, the team plays better with him than they will without him, but let’s face it — Philly isn’t going to win anything this season. If they can move Miller for a young player or two and a draft pick/expiring contract, they should pull the trigger. Miller’s a great passer that can run an offense, and Philly will most likely get some solid offers. Just don’t expect Miller to go to Miami (Riley hates pudgy players).

1. The Chicago Bulls – Any one of the Bulls players, and I mean any one of them, are likely to be traded. Chicago has to do something to add a scoring big, and Pau Gasol and Jermaine O’Neal both fit the bill. Which Bulls players are more likely to go? Look for Nocioni and Ben Gordon to leave — they’re the easiest to replace.

1) Detroit Pistons – Expect Flip Saunders to improve Detroit’s offense, and look for their bench to rival many teams starting squads.

2) Chicago Bulls – Chicago was this close to making the conference finals last year, and with the expected emergence of Luol Deng, there’s no reason the Bulls can’t get over the hump this year.

3) Boston Celtics – They’ve got the big 3, but they’ll need a season or two to coalesce before they can become the best team in the East.

4) Washington Wizards – They can score as well as any team in the league, and Arenas will be playing for his next contract.

5) Cleveland Cavaliers – When you’re the defending champs, you’ve got a big target on your back. They’ll have to work much harder this year if they want to make it to the finals again.

6) Miami Heat – Any team with Dwayne Wade can make the playoffs, and Shaq’s got enough in the tank to be a force at least one more year.

7) New Jersey Nets – This team has too much talent not to make the playoffs, and could surprise a lot of people if everyone stays healthy.

8 ) New York Knicks – New York gets into the playoffs because of powerful offense, but they’ll get swept in the first round because they have no defense.

I’ve got Chicago winning it all in the East – they’ve got great defense, more than enough talent, depth, and emerging superstars in Hinrich, Deng, and Gordon. In my opinion, it’s Chicago’s conference to lose.