What New Orleans Wants: Losing Paul is going to kick start a rebuilding process, and that means that the Hornets need to turn solid veterans with big contracts (i.e., Emeka Okafor) into less expensive players and assets. The Hornets also want good first round draft picks.

• Takeaway: New Orleans probably isn’t going to trade Chris Paul unless Okafor goes along with him.

What Los Angeles Wants: Chris Paul at any cost. Paul can be the face of the Lakers for the rest of this decade, succeeding Kobe. Furthermore, Paul + the Hollywood lifestyle will ensure that L.A. can entice free agents for years to come.

• Takeaway: L.A. will probably trade anyone who isn’t named Kobe to acquire Paul.

The Problem: If we look at the centerpieces of the Chris Paul – Lakers trade:

1. New Orleans would pass on a Bynum for Paul trade because that doesn’t get rid of Okafor.
2. Trading Paul + Okafor for Bynum + Gasol (or perhaps Bynum + Odom), solves #1, but neither Odom nor Gasol help the Hornets rebuild. There’s also the fact that Odom and Gasol are incredibly expensive players for a rebuilding team.
3. The Lakers can offer first round picks, but none of the picks are going to be very high. They’re likely to come in the late 20′s, which is nothing to get excited about considering Golden State and the Clippers can offer more.

The Solution: Why not pull in the Hawks?

Josh Smith is available, and Atlanta has picks they might be willing to offer up in a Gasol trade. L.A. could then trade the pick(s) from Atlanta to New Orleans (along with a pick or two of their own) and take back Okafor and Paul. Here’s the deal I would propose:

• L.A. gets Chris Paul, Okafor, and Josh Smith
• New Orleans gets Bynum, Kirk Hinrich, and draft picks from both Atlanta and L.A.
• Atlanta gets Gasol and saves about $2 million in salary

Everyone wins.

• L.A. gets a great group of players and a legit shot at a championship, but they also get to pay a hefty luxury tax. As time goes by, these types of contracts are going to become very toxic, and only big markets like L.A. will be able to take them on.
• New Orleans gets a nice young asset in Bynum, picks, and a veteran point guard who can hold down the fort (and who might take a buy-out later this year). New Orleans could also probably work out some cash in this trade too.
• Atlanta gets to move Al Horford to PF, adds an All-Star at Center, and gets rid of a malcontent who will be very expensive to re-sign (Smith). They also save money this year.

While this trade isn’t perfect – New Orleans would prefer picks from lottery teams, L.A. probably doesn’t want to take on Okafor, and Atlanta needs depth – all three teams get what they need.

Furthermore, both L.A. and Atlanta have a legit shot at a championship this year as a result of this trade. Gasol + Horford + Joe Johnson is a formidable group out East that will give the Heat and the Bulls a good run.

Thoughts?

1. Bynum has missed a lot of games this year and we still win without him
2. Kobe is on the downhill slope of his career – it’s a good idea to have a successor waiting in the wings
3. Melo might be a better player with Kobe and Phil Jackson looking over his shoulder – after all, we saw a glimpse of what Melo can do in the Denver-LA Western Conference Finals
4. Melo creates space for Gasol and Kobe and puts a lot of pressure on defenses

I also think LA is hesitant to trade for Melo because he wouldn’t improve their defense. There’s also the issue of usage – where will the ball go with Odom, Gasol, Kobe, and Melo all on the floor?

To be honest, I don’t see LA having a lot of reasons to do this deal. Unless Bynum isn’t taking things seriously and applying himself, trading him seems like the wrong move.

As far as Denver is concerned, this deal is a no-brainer. Here’s why:

1. Bynum is young, and he’s a franchise talent. Denver doesn’t want to trade Melo unless they can get a franchise talent – or a chance at drafting a franchise talent – in return. Bynum, when healthy, would be the 2nd best center in the league and a tough matchup.

2. Bynum is easy to flip. If Denver decides that Bynum isn’t the answer, they can flip him this summer for draft picks and interesting young players very easily. I think there are at least half a dozen teams that would get serious if Bynum were made available.

3. Grabbing Bynum makes moving Nene very possible. If Denver acquired Bynum, they would have every reason to trade Nene. Nene’s upside is much smaller, and he’s an older player – but he’s healthier and he doesn’t need the ball to be effective. Houston reportedly loves Nene and has a lot of great assets.

The main reason that Denver likes a Melo for Bynum deal, however, is this: Bynum brings back more than Melo in any trade scenario. Because Melo is unwilling to sign an extension with most teams, his trade value is lower than the value of Bynum, who is under contract for at least two more seasons.

I don’ t think I’d like this move if I were an LA fan, but as a Nuggets fan I’m all about it. Here’s to hoping it goes down, or at the very least gets NY to raise their offer.

1. Confirming the existence of the list hurts Bosh’s image with Toronto’s fans. The fact that a list officially exists hurts Bosh’s standing with fans. Colangelo wouldn’t do that to his star player unless he felt like his chances of staying in Toronto were slim.

2. Colangelo is starting the sign-and-trade ball rolling. Now that NBA GM’s are aware Bosh can be had, it’s time for them to start calling Toronto and making a pitch to Colangelo. Obviously, the final move is up to Chris Bosh…but if someone calls and offers a superstar to Toronto to try and acquire Bosh, that’s going to help set the value for a sign-and-trade. The next question is…

Where Is Bosh Headed?

Here are the four teams Bosh supposedly wants to play for next year and my estimation of their chances of trading for him.

Chicago – Unless they’re willing to part with Joakim Noah, I think the other teams on this list can make a better offer. I suppose that Bosh could try and force his way to Chicago, but the best move for everyone is to work together. Without giving up Noah, the best players Chicago can offer are Hinrich (who Toronto doesn’t need), Deng (overpaid and also a guy Toronto doesn’t need), and then a nice inexpensive young PF (Gibson or Johnson). Granted, Chicago can throw some picks at Toronto, but so can most of the teams on this list.

Lakers – This one makes a hell of a lot of sense if the rumors of Bynum’s availability are true. Bynum for Bosh is as close to a win-win as Toronto can get. Having said that, if the Lakers win the championship, why would they change their team? If the Lakers want to offer Bynum, they’ll have the best offer on the table.

Miami – Miami’s chances are better than Chicago, but they’re still sort of slim. Miami’s best trade pieces are Beasley and draft picks (including the 18th pick this summer). Miami shouldn’t be counted out – Beasley isn’t a bad return on Bosh – but it’s going to take pressure from Bosh to make this happen.

By the way – I could see Toronto packaging Calderon with Bosh if Miami gets involved…but Miami is going to have to sacrifice their draft picks for the next few years to get it done.

New York – The Knicks seem like a long shot to land Bosh in a sign and trade. Not only are they division rivals, but they don’t have a lot of talent they can send back. They’ve also given most of their draft picks away. One interesting wrinkle, however, could be trading both Bosh and Turkoglu for Curry and Gallinari.

• If I’m running things in Toronto, the opportunity to dump Turk would be tempting, especially if I got a cheap young player of equivalent talent in return. Curry might actually be able to help Toronto, but if he can’t, it’s a small price to pay to be out from under Turk’s ridiculous deal.
• If I’m running things in New York, I look at this deal because it helps me convince Joe Johnson to come to the Big Apple. Turk is overpaid for sure, but he’s also a mis-match SF who can help open up the middle.

In any case, I think the market for Bosh hinges on how the Lakers play in the Finals. If Gasol exhibits some new-found toughness, L.A. will consider sliding him over to center and bringing in Bosh. If not, it’s going to be hard to give up on Bynum…unless of course L.A. tanks against Boston, but I don’t think that will happen.

Denver’s disadvantage on the boards is profound. They’never been good on the boards this season…if only McDyess had stayed. The Nuggets are still one big man away.

By the way, I’m pretty sure that Carter isn’t the Nuggets best passer. Why is he making the in-bounds on the most critical possession of the game? Karl’s confidence in his role players is great, but he deserves part of the blame here as well.

Just in case you didn’t notice, Melo had a HUGE game. Not only did he carry his team, but he probably made himself a ton of cash. A couple more games like this and Melo is going to be lookin’ at some big endorsement opportunities. Good for him.

Ariza was a non factor guarding Melo, just as I said he would be. His lack of strength and his comparitive lack of quickness (Melo is fast for such a big player) were Ariza’s undoing. The Lakers are going to need to adjust in game 2, but how? Who can cover Melo? Kobe wasn’t tremendously successful because…

Kobe won’t get all the calls against Melo that he normally gets as a “first team defender.” Kobe is accustomed to getting the benefit of the doubt, but that’s not going to happen while guarding Melo. I think that means that Melo has officially arrived.

As a Nuggets fan, I think Kobe deserves a flagrant 1 after-the-fact for his shot on Kenyon’s package. I think the timing is suspicious – K-Mart was jawing at Odom about 5 seconds previous to Kobe’s “accidental” shot. However…

As an NBA observer I highly doubt the NBA will do anything, and honestly I don’t know that they should. It’s hard to make that kind of call after the fact. Not only is it unfair (only the refs on the floor should be making that judgment), but it sets a bad precedent. Still, it says here that Kobe is a passive-aggressive bastard.

Two smart defensive assignments – Melo on Kobe (no gimme calls for Kobe) and Ariza on Billups (Chauncey disappeared for while).

Did anyone else notice Ariza flattening himself against a Chris Anderson screen? I bet that hurt.

Denver must correct their rotation problem. Farmar, Fisher, Ariza, and Shannon Brown all benefited from wide-open looks multiple times simply because someone on the Nuggets didn’t rotate. Most of the time, the players that didn’t rotate were Melo and J.R. Smith.

L.A. is still very much a soft team. Gasol and Odom were both intimidated by K-Mart, Nene, and Anderson. One more reason you can write me down for the Cavs winning it all.

Denver is good, but not good enough. Good game.

Point Guards – Billups and Carter vs. Fisher, Farmar, and Brown. There’s an awful lot to like about L.A.’s trio of point guards. Brown is lightening quick, Farmar is a talented shooter and capable player, and Fisher is big, strong, and clutch. Denver’s Anthony Carter is a good game manager and a great defender, but I don’t think he’ll be able to match the point output from Brown and Farmar. Lucky for Denver, Chauncey will easily outplay Fisher. Advantage: Nuggets.

Shooting Guards – Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith vs. Vujacic and some guy named Kobe. If the series lasts 7 games, there will be 1 game where J.R. Smith almost matches Kobe offensively – ONE. Most of the time, Kobe will double up J.R.’s scoring. When you add in Kobe’s defensive abilities and his superman powers, he wins the match-up all by himself.

Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones managed to get under Kobe’s skin a little in this series. In fact, the best thing Jones can do is figure out a way to get Kobe suspended (sounds like a crappy job). Advantage: Lakers (and it’s big).

Small Forward – Anthony and Kleiza vs. Ariza and Walton. Melo is going to use and abuse both Ariza and Walton (assuming Luke Walton will contribute) – he’s simply too strong and too quick. Melo’s opportunity to shine in this series is big – if he can carry his team the way that Kobe carries the Lakers, the Nuggets will be tough to beat. Count on Kleiza to be a no-show (Kleiza’s time as a Nugget is just about over, by the way). Advantage: Nuggets.

Power Forward – Kenyon Martin and Chris Anderson vs. Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol. I really like the Lamar Odom Kenyon Martin match-up when the two players are healthy, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Odom is banged up, so Kenyon’s toughness and physicality will likely make Odom a non-factor. When Kenyon spends time guarding Gasol, L.A. will benefit since Gasol is comfortable and capable of stepping out and shooting over Kenyon’s head.

Gasol’s height advantage leads me to believe that Chris Anderson will be playing a lot of minutes guarding Gasol in this series. Anderson’s energy and length really bothered Dirk Nowitzki, and you’ve got to believe he’ll be able to interfere with Gasol’s rythym. Still, it must be said that a bad game for Gasol is still a decent outing for any other player. Denver will need both K-Mart and Anderson at their best defensively if they want to have any chance of beating L.A. Advantage: Lakers.

Center – Nene vs. Bynum – Bynum’s size and athleticism will bother Nene, but Bynum’s tendency to foul will work to Nene’s strengths. If Bynum can wake up one day and be the player that he was in the regular season, L.A. has the advantage simply because they can play Gasol at PF for extended periods.

More likely, Bynum will struggle on defense, get into foul trouble, and L.A. will be forced to move Gasol to center and play Odom at PF. If this happens, Denver wins the overall matchup in the front court. Nene can almost play Gasol to a draw, and Odom will be a no-show against K-Mart. When you throw Chris Anderson into the mix, Denver ever so slightly edges out the Lakers when Bynum rides the pine. Still, if Bynum is able to stay on the floor and produce at a minimal level, Gasol moves to power forward and L.A. rolls. Advantage: Lakers (but not by much).

This series is all about Bynum. We know that Kobe will be dominant, and we know that Carmelo will be impossible for any of L.A.’s defenders to contain. We know that L.A. will likely forget to show up for a game or two, and we know that Denver is a better team defensively while L.A. is better offensively.

The question in this series is simple: Can Bynum produce? If Bynum can stay on the floor, Denver likely can’t prevail. Gasol at Power Forward is a difficult matchup for Denver that they won’t be able to compensate for. Still, Bynum riding the bench won’t mean an automatic win for the Nuggets. Nene and Chris Anderson will still need to contain Gasol while defensively as well as pressure him offensively and on the boards. That’s a tall order, but a combination of good physical defense from the Birdman and top-notch offense from Nene could put Gasol out of rhythm on offense and in foul trouble on defense.

Predictions:

• Chris Anderson will start at least one game in this series.
• Bynum will foul out twice.
• Odom will loose it and earn an ejection.
• Ditto K-Mart.
• Ditto J.R. Smith.
• Kobe will hit Dahntay Jones and the league will let it go.

Ultimately, I believe the Lakers win this series in 7 games. Denver’s front court isn’t deep enough to measure up against Bynum at Center and Gasol and power forward, and Kobe is killer in close games. Still, a 7 game series is close by definition. Any mis-steps by L.A. will have major implications.

Looking a little farther into the future (and assuming L.A. takes care of business), the Lakers had better watch out for Cleveland. The Cavs have the advantage in the frontcourt because of their superior defense, and Lebron vs. Kobe is simply too close to call. Home court usually wins, so you can put me down for the Cavs taking it all. It’s going to be fun!

10. Jermaine O’Neal – Trade rumors have been swirling around Jermaine O’Neal for a couple of years now, but his big contract combined with his injury history usually scares teams away from making a real offer. Still, he can make a difference on most teams in the league, and Indiana is interested in getting younger.

9. The New York Knicks – Until Isiah is fired, there’s always a chance that a NY Knick will be traded. With possibly one or two exceptions, every player on this team is available.

8. Jason Kidd – Even if you disregard the rumors surrounding Kidd’s supposedly “fake” migraine from a couple of weeks ago, he is still likely to be traded. Kidd is an all-star point guard that has a high market value, especially for his age. NJ may want to “get while the gettin’s good” and cash in on Kidd while he’s having a career year. Only his huge contract keeps him from being higher on this list.

7. Ron Artest – If it wasn’t for Artest’s domestic abuse problem back in March, he might have been moved this summer. Despite the possibility that Artest could go off the deep end at any time, he’s a tremendous and desirable talent that’s wasting away in Sacramento. And his contract is so cheap that he can go virtually anywhere…

6. Kwame Brown – Brown’s huge expiring contract is trade bait, and Kobe and Phil Jackson are both expecting the Lakers to make a move that will improve the team. Kwame is the Laker’s most trade-able player, so he’s as good as gone.

5. Jason Williams – Just like the situation in Los Angeles, something has to be done in Miami. Jason Williams has a huge expiring contract that will facilitate just about any trade, and there are more than a few teams looking for a way to reduce salary.

4. Mike Bibby – It’s no secret that Bibby was unhappy in Sacramento last season, and his skill set would be highly valued by a lot of teams looking for a scoring point guard (Cleveland and Miami, among others). Bibby and Artest don’t get along either, making it seem that one of them leaving Sac-Town is a foregone conclusion.

3. Pau Gasol – Chicago desperately needs some inside scoring, and Pau is a back-to-the-basket player that Chicago can probably get for a discount. The ownership in Memphis is trying to sell the team, and they might think that moving Gasol for some younger and less expensive players would make the sale easier. This will be an interesting trade — who will come out ahead? Chicago is desperate, but Memphis has no need for Gasol’s services as they try and structure their team for a sale.

2. Andre Miller – Philly has absolutely nothing to gain by keeping Andre Miller. Granted, the team plays better with him than they will without him, but let’s face it — Philly isn’t going to win anything this season. If they can move Miller for a young player or two and a draft pick/expiring contract, they should pull the trigger. Miller’s a great passer that can run an offense, and Philly will most likely get some solid offers. Just don’t expect Miller to go to Miami (Riley hates pudgy players).

1. The Chicago Bulls – Any one of the Bulls players, and I mean any one of them, are likely to be traded. Chicago has to do something to add a scoring big, and Pau Gasol and Jermaine O’Neal both fit the bill. Which Bulls players are more likely to go? Look for Nocioni and Ben Gordon to leave — they’re the easiest to replace.