1. Confirming the existence of the list hurts Bosh’s image with Toronto’s fans. The fact that a list officially exists hurts Bosh’s standing with fans. Colangelo wouldn’t do that to his star player unless he felt like his chances of staying in Toronto were slim.

2. Colangelo is starting the sign-and-trade ball rolling. Now that NBA GM’s are aware Bosh can be had, it’s time for them to start calling Toronto and making a pitch to Colangelo. Obviously, the final move is up to Chris Bosh…but if someone calls and offers a superstar to Toronto to try and acquire Bosh, that’s going to help set the value for a sign-and-trade. The next question is…

Where Is Bosh Headed?

Here are the four teams Bosh supposedly wants to play for next year and my estimation of their chances of trading for him.

Chicago – Unless they’re willing to part with Joakim Noah, I think the other teams on this list can make a better offer. I suppose that Bosh could try and force his way to Chicago, but the best move for everyone is to work together. Without giving up Noah, the best players Chicago can offer are Hinrich (who Toronto doesn’t need), Deng (overpaid and also a guy Toronto doesn’t need), and then a nice inexpensive young PF (Gibson or Johnson). Granted, Chicago can throw some picks at Toronto, but so can most of the teams on this list.

Lakers – This one makes a hell of a lot of sense if the rumors of Bynum’s availability are true. Bynum for Bosh is as close to a win-win as Toronto can get. Having said that, if the Lakers win the championship, why would they change their team? If the Lakers want to offer Bynum, they’ll have the best offer on the table.

Miami – Miami’s chances are better than Chicago, but they’re still sort of slim. Miami’s best trade pieces are Beasley and draft picks (including the 18th pick this summer). Miami shouldn’t be counted out – Beasley isn’t a bad return on Bosh – but it’s going to take pressure from Bosh to make this happen.

By the way – I could see Toronto packaging Calderon with Bosh if Miami gets involved…but Miami is going to have to sacrifice their draft picks for the next few years to get it done.

New York – The Knicks seem like a long shot to land Bosh in a sign and trade. Not only are they division rivals, but they don’t have a lot of talent they can send back. They’ve also given most of their draft picks away. One interesting wrinkle, however, could be trading both Bosh and Turkoglu for Curry and Gallinari.

• If I’m running things in Toronto, the opportunity to dump Turk would be tempting, especially if I got a cheap young player of equivalent talent in return. Curry might actually be able to help Toronto, but if he can’t, it’s a small price to pay to be out from under Turk’s ridiculous deal.
• If I’m running things in New York, I look at this deal because it helps me convince Joe Johnson to come to the Big Apple. Turk is overpaid for sure, but he’s also a mis-match SF who can help open up the middle.

In any case, I think the market for Bosh hinges on how the Lakers play in the Finals. If Gasol exhibits some new-found toughness, L.A. will consider sliding him over to center and bringing in Bosh. If not, it’s going to be hard to give up on Bynum…unless of course L.A. tanks against Boston, but I don’t think that will happen.

Denver’s disadvantage on the boards is profound. They’never been good on the boards this season…if only McDyess had stayed. The Nuggets are still one big man away.

By the way, I’m pretty sure that Carter isn’t the Nuggets best passer. Why is he making the in-bounds on the most critical possession of the game? Karl’s confidence in his role players is great, but he deserves part of the blame here as well.

Just in case you didn’t notice, Melo had a HUGE game. Not only did he carry his team, but he probably made himself a ton of cash. A couple more games like this and Melo is going to be lookin’ at some big endorsement opportunities. Good for him.

Ariza was a non factor guarding Melo, just as I said he would be. His lack of strength and his comparitive lack of quickness (Melo is fast for such a big player) were Ariza’s undoing. The Lakers are going to need to adjust in game 2, but how? Who can cover Melo? Kobe wasn’t tremendously successful because…

Kobe won’t get all the calls against Melo that he normally gets as a “first team defender.” Kobe is accustomed to getting the benefit of the doubt, but that’s not going to happen while guarding Melo. I think that means that Melo has officially arrived.

As a Nuggets fan, I think Kobe deserves a flagrant 1 after-the-fact for his shot on Kenyon’s package. I think the timing is suspicious – K-Mart was jawing at Odom about 5 seconds previous to Kobe’s “accidental” shot. However…

As an NBA observer I highly doubt the NBA will do anything, and honestly I don’t know that they should. It’s hard to make that kind of call after the fact. Not only is it unfair (only the refs on the floor should be making that judgment), but it sets a bad precedent. Still, it says here that Kobe is a passive-aggressive bastard.

Two smart defensive assignments – Melo on Kobe (no gimme calls for Kobe) and Ariza on Billups (Chauncey disappeared for while).

Did anyone else notice Ariza flattening himself against a Chris Anderson screen? I bet that hurt.

Denver must correct their rotation problem. Farmar, Fisher, Ariza, and Shannon Brown all benefited from wide-open looks multiple times simply because someone on the Nuggets didn’t rotate. Most of the time, the players that didn’t rotate were Melo and J.R. Smith.

L.A. is still very much a soft team. Gasol and Odom were both intimidated by K-Mart, Nene, and Anderson. One more reason you can write me down for the Cavs winning it all.

Denver is good, but not good enough. Good game.

Point Guards – Billups and Carter vs. Fisher, Farmar, and Brown. There’s an awful lot to like about L.A.’s trio of point guards. Brown is lightening quick, Farmar is a talented shooter and capable player, and Fisher is big, strong, and clutch. Denver’s Anthony Carter is a good game manager and a great defender, but I don’t think he’ll be able to match the point output from Brown and Farmar. Lucky for Denver, Chauncey will easily outplay Fisher. Advantage: Nuggets.

Shooting Guards – Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith vs. Vujacic and some guy named Kobe. If the series lasts 7 games, there will be 1 game where J.R. Smith almost matches Kobe offensively – ONE. Most of the time, Kobe will double up J.R.’s scoring. When you add in Kobe’s defensive abilities and his superman powers, he wins the match-up all by himself.

Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones managed to get under Kobe’s skin a little in this series. In fact, the best thing Jones can do is figure out a way to get Kobe suspended (sounds like a crappy job). Advantage: Lakers (and it’s big).

Small Forward – Anthony and Kleiza vs. Ariza and Walton. Melo is going to use and abuse both Ariza and Walton (assuming Luke Walton will contribute) – he’s simply too strong and too quick. Melo’s opportunity to shine in this series is big – if he can carry his team the way that Kobe carries the Lakers, the Nuggets will be tough to beat. Count on Kleiza to be a no-show (Kleiza’s time as a Nugget is just about over, by the way). Advantage: Nuggets.

Power Forward – Kenyon Martin and Chris Anderson vs. Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol. I really like the Lamar Odom Kenyon Martin match-up when the two players are healthy, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Odom is banged up, so Kenyon’s toughness and physicality will likely make Odom a non-factor. When Kenyon spends time guarding Gasol, L.A. will benefit since Gasol is comfortable and capable of stepping out and shooting over Kenyon’s head.

Gasol’s height advantage leads me to believe that Chris Anderson will be playing a lot of minutes guarding Gasol in this series. Anderson’s energy and length really bothered Dirk Nowitzki, and you’ve got to believe he’ll be able to interfere with Gasol’s rythym. Still, it must be said that a bad game for Gasol is still a decent outing for any other player. Denver will need both K-Mart and Anderson at their best defensively if they want to have any chance of beating L.A. Advantage: Lakers.

Center – Nene vs. Bynum – Bynum’s size and athleticism will bother Nene, but Bynum’s tendency to foul will work to Nene’s strengths. If Bynum can wake up one day and be the player that he was in the regular season, L.A. has the advantage simply because they can play Gasol at PF for extended periods.

More likely, Bynum will struggle on defense, get into foul trouble, and L.A. will be forced to move Gasol to center and play Odom at PF. If this happens, Denver wins the overall matchup in the front court. Nene can almost play Gasol to a draw, and Odom will be a no-show against K-Mart. When you throw Chris Anderson into the mix, Denver ever so slightly edges out the Lakers when Bynum rides the pine. Still, if Bynum is able to stay on the floor and produce at a minimal level, Gasol moves to power forward and L.A. rolls. Advantage: Lakers (but not by much).

This series is all about Bynum. We know that Kobe will be dominant, and we know that Carmelo will be impossible for any of L.A.’s defenders to contain. We know that L.A. will likely forget to show up for a game or two, and we know that Denver is a better team defensively while L.A. is better offensively.

The question in this series is simple: Can Bynum produce? If Bynum can stay on the floor, Denver likely can’t prevail. Gasol at Power Forward is a difficult matchup for Denver that they won’t be able to compensate for. Still, Bynum riding the bench won’t mean an automatic win for the Nuggets. Nene and Chris Anderson will still need to contain Gasol while defensively as well as pressure him offensively and on the boards. That’s a tall order, but a combination of good physical defense from the Birdman and top-notch offense from Nene could put Gasol out of rhythm on offense and in foul trouble on defense.

Predictions:

• Chris Anderson will start at least one game in this series.
• Bynum will foul out twice.
• Odom will loose it and earn an ejection.
• Ditto K-Mart.
• Ditto J.R. Smith.
• Kobe will hit Dahntay Jones and the league will let it go.

Ultimately, I believe the Lakers win this series in 7 games. Denver’s front court isn’t deep enough to measure up against Bynum at Center and Gasol and power forward, and Kobe is killer in close games. Still, a 7 game series is close by definition. Any mis-steps by L.A. will have major implications.

Looking a little farther into the future (and assuming L.A. takes care of business), the Lakers had better watch out for Cleveland. The Cavs have the advantage in the frontcourt because of their superior defense, and Lebron vs. Kobe is simply too close to call. Home court usually wins, so you can put me down for the Cavs taking it all. It’s going to be fun!

10. Jermaine O’Neal – Trade rumors have been swirling around Jermaine O’Neal for a couple of years now, but his big contract combined with his injury history usually scares teams away from making a real offer. Still, he can make a difference on most teams in the league, and Indiana is interested in getting younger.

9. The New York Knicks – Until Isiah is fired, there’s always a chance that a NY Knick will be traded. With possibly one or two exceptions, every player on this team is available.

8. Jason Kidd – Even if you disregard the rumors surrounding Kidd’s supposedly “fake” migraine from a couple of weeks ago, he is still likely to be traded. Kidd is an all-star point guard that has a high market value, especially for his age. NJ may want to “get while the gettin’s good” and cash in on Kidd while he’s having a career year. Only his huge contract keeps him from being higher on this list.

7. Ron Artest – If it wasn’t for Artest’s domestic abuse problem back in March, he might have been moved this summer. Despite the possibility that Artest could go off the deep end at any time, he’s a tremendous and desirable talent that’s wasting away in Sacramento. And his contract is so cheap that he can go virtually anywhere…

6. Kwame Brown – Brown’s huge expiring contract is trade bait, and Kobe and Phil Jackson are both expecting the Lakers to make a move that will improve the team. Kwame is the Laker’s most trade-able player, so he’s as good as gone.

5. Jason Williams – Just like the situation in Los Angeles, something has to be done in Miami. Jason Williams has a huge expiring contract that will facilitate just about any trade, and there are more than a few teams looking for a way to reduce salary.

4. Mike Bibby – It’s no secret that Bibby was unhappy in Sacramento last season, and his skill set would be highly valued by a lot of teams looking for a scoring point guard (Cleveland and Miami, among others). Bibby and Artest don’t get along either, making it seem that one of them leaving Sac-Town is a foregone conclusion.

3. Pau Gasol – Chicago desperately needs some inside scoring, and Pau is a back-to-the-basket player that Chicago can probably get for a discount. The ownership in Memphis is trying to sell the team, and they might think that moving Gasol for some younger and less expensive players would make the sale easier. This will be an interesting trade — who will come out ahead? Chicago is desperate, but Memphis has no need for Gasol’s services as they try and structure their team for a sale.

2. Andre Miller – Philly has absolutely nothing to gain by keeping Andre Miller. Granted, the team plays better with him than they will without him, but let’s face it — Philly isn’t going to win anything this season. If they can move Miller for a young player or two and a draft pick/expiring contract, they should pull the trigger. Miller’s a great passer that can run an offense, and Philly will most likely get some solid offers. Just don’t expect Miller to go to Miami (Riley hates pudgy players).

1. The Chicago Bulls – Any one of the Bulls players, and I mean any one of them, are likely to be traded. Chicago has to do something to add a scoring big, and Pau Gasol and Jermaine O’Neal both fit the bill. Which Bulls players are more likely to go? Look for Nocioni and Ben Gordon to leave — they’re the easiest to replace.

Kobe will be sitting out the season by March 1, 2008.

Here’s why:

1. The Lakers will lose one of their starting five to injury before the All-Star break.

Between Luke Walton, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher, and the Bynum/Brown/Mihm rotation at center, it’s not if a Laker’s starter gets hurt, but when. Don’t get me wrong — every team in the league will probably lose a starter to injury next season. The problem with it happening to the Lakers is that it will cripple their offense. Unless one of their role players can step up and fill in for the injured player, the offense will turn into the “Kobe show.” Not that the Kobe show doesn’t win games — because it does — but Bryant is tired of carrying this team. He’s been doing it for years now, and he doesn’t get any help (or respect). When the Lakers lose a starter to injury and the bench can’t help, Kobe will throw in the towel.

2. Phil Jackson’s leverage over Kobe is just about gone.

Kobe Bryant is no fool — he knows that any Phil Jackson coached team has a shot at a ring. In fact, it’s my opinion that the ONLY reason Kobe hasn’t forced a trade is that he knows Phil can take a group of average players and make them a force. But Kobe also knows that Phil Jackson hasn’t agreed to an extension. This is Jackson’s last contract year and he’s said that he’s going to wait to decide about extending until the last minute. If Phil Jackson hasn’t made it clear by mid-season that he’s going to be sticking around, Kobe’s only reason to stay a Laker is gone.

3. Kobe’s not worried about losing money.

A lot of people claim that the reason Kobe hasn’t been more vocal about being traded is that he’s trying to protect various endorsement deals. Bullshit. Kobe’s not worried about cash, and for good reason. The money he loses demanding a trade he’ll more than earn back when he leads his new team to a championship. Besides, do you think a guy worth $200 million is really worried about a few million in endorsements?

4. The Lakers have reached the point of diminishing returns with Kobe.

When Allen Iverson left Philly, a lot of people talked about the fact that A.I. and the 76ers had been together for too long. To my way of thinking, that means that sometimes it’s good for organizations to make a change. Kobe is a hell of a basketball player, but he’s also a tremendous weight on the team. His recent emotional trade demands, his constant back stabs of his teammates, and his almost insufferable competitive edge will make working with Kobe very difficult in the upcoming season. At what point do the Lakers realize that Kobe’s presence is actually hurting them more than it’s helping them? When Philly finally traded A.I., they did it with the knowledge that they were better off without him. Expect the Lakers to come to this conclusion too.

Here’s how the Kobe holdout will go down. The Lakers will get off to a decent start, but struggle in the month of February when 12 of their 15 games are on the road. Of course, by this time, Odom, Walton, Brown, Mihm, or Bynum will have missed at least a dozen games. The Lakers will slip below 50%. Phil Jackson, in a slip of the tongue, will mention he’s considering retirement. At this point, Kobe Bryant will realize he has no chance of winning a championship in 2008 as long as he’s a Laker. Considering how vocal Kobe was this summer, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t go off the deep-end and sit out the season.

The Lakers should trade Kobe now and rebuild. With Bynum, Odom, Walton, a couple of expiring contracts, and some draft picks, the Lakers can again become a force in the Western Conference. Not this year mind you, but soon. But if the Lakers hold on to Kobe and try to somehow salvage this relationship, they stand a very good chance of creating a no-win situation where Kobe is traded for half of his value.

Don’t believe it? Ask all the Garnett fans in Minnesota, all the Iverson fans in Philly, and all the Carter fans in Toronto what they think.

I’m tired of hearing about Lebron. From his recent trip to Hollywood to his new talent management agency, people just can’t stop talking about this guy. Don’t get me wrong — Lebron is an excellent player and a supreme talent, easily one of the top five players in the league. It’s just that Lebron really hasn’t achieved enough to deserve all the hype. In fact, I’d argue Kobe deserves twice the attention that Lebron gets. Here’s why:

1. Kobe is a MUCH better scorer. — If Kobe’s 81 point game isn’t enough for you, consider the following: Mamba averaged 31.6 points per game last year during the regular season, playing an average of 41 minutes. Lebron scored 26.9 pts in about the same amount of time. Kobe is also a better shooter, hitting 34.5% from behind the arc and 87% at the line. Compare that to Lebron’s 3pt shooting at 31.2% and his terrible 70% free throw shooting.

2. Kobe is more reliable in the clutch. — Who would you rather have taking the last shot? Remember all the grief Lebron got about passing the ball to Donyell Marshall in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals? You can bet your #&$ that Kobe would have taken the shot himself. And made it.

3. Kobe plays against much tougher competition. — The Cavs got a dose of reality when they got swept by the Spurs in the NBA championship. The fact is the Eastern Conference is much weaker than the Western Conference, and Kobe plays tougher opponents night in and night out than Lebron does. Not only is Kobe in a tougher conference, but he also has to deal with the best defenders in the league in Bruce Bowen, Shane Battier, and Raja Bell. Lebron’s toughest defender is Eric Snow at practice.

4. Kobe works harder during the off season. — Remember what they used to say about James Brown? “The hardest working man in show business.” That’s the deal with Kobe. Since he spent his first NBA season on the bench, Kobe has constantly improved his game. Just this week, Kobe was in the gym after hours working on his game. Kobe doesn’t just work harder than Lebron, he works harder than anyone.

5. Kobe is a proven champion. — Say what you will about Kobe’s 3 championship rings, but the bottom line is Kobe has 3 and Lebron has none.

6. Kobe is a better defender. — Kobe can play lock-down defense that rivals anyone in the league. Lebron’s idea of defense is making sure to stay out the way so he doesn’t get posterized. Kobe’s been on 6 NBA All-Defensive teams. Lebron? Not so much.

7. Kobe is a more complete player. — Lebron’s game is full of holes — poor jump shot, poor free throw shooting, poor defense. Kobe is as close to perfect as a human (maybe superhuman) can be. There isn’t one thing that happens on a basketball court that Kobe can’t do to perfection. Don’t believe it? Check out what hall of fame’r Rick Barry had to say about Lebron’s game.

What do you think? Is Kobe twice the player that Lebron is?