What New Orleans Wants: Losing Paul is going to kick start a rebuilding process, and that means that the Hornets need to turn solid veterans with big contracts (i.e., Emeka Okafor) into less expensive players and assets. The Hornets also want good first round draft picks.

• Takeaway: New Orleans probably isn’t going to trade Chris Paul unless Okafor goes along with him.

What Los Angeles Wants: Chris Paul at any cost. Paul can be the face of the Lakers for the rest of this decade, succeeding Kobe. Furthermore, Paul + the Hollywood lifestyle will ensure that L.A. can entice free agents for years to come.

• Takeaway: L.A. will probably trade anyone who isn’t named Kobe to acquire Paul.

The Problem: If we look at the centerpieces of the Chris Paul – Lakers trade:

1. New Orleans would pass on a Bynum for Paul trade because that doesn’t get rid of Okafor.
2. Trading Paul + Okafor for Bynum + Gasol (or perhaps Bynum + Odom), solves #1, but neither Odom nor Gasol help the Hornets rebuild. There’s also the fact that Odom and Gasol are incredibly expensive players for a rebuilding team.
3. The Lakers can offer first round picks, but none of the picks are going to be very high. They’re likely to come in the late 20′s, which is nothing to get excited about considering Golden State and the Clippers can offer more.

The Solution: Why not pull in the Hawks?

Josh Smith is available, and Atlanta has picks they might be willing to offer up in a Gasol trade. L.A. could then trade the pick(s) from Atlanta to New Orleans (along with a pick or two of their own) and take back Okafor and Paul. Here’s the deal I would propose:

• L.A. gets Chris Paul, Okafor, and Josh Smith
• New Orleans gets Bynum, Kirk Hinrich, and draft picks from both Atlanta and L.A.
• Atlanta gets Gasol and saves about $2 million in salary

Everyone wins.

• L.A. gets a great group of players and a legit shot at a championship, but they also get to pay a hefty luxury tax. As time goes by, these types of contracts are going to become very toxic, and only big markets like L.A. will be able to take them on.
• New Orleans gets a nice young asset in Bynum, picks, and a veteran point guard who can hold down the fort (and who might take a buy-out later this year). New Orleans could also probably work out some cash in this trade too.
• Atlanta gets to move Al Horford to PF, adds an All-Star at Center, and gets rid of a malcontent who will be very expensive to re-sign (Smith). They also save money this year.

While this trade isn’t perfect – New Orleans would prefer picks from lottery teams, L.A. probably doesn’t want to take on Okafor, and Atlanta needs depth – all three teams get what they need.

Furthermore, both L.A. and Atlanta have a legit shot at a championship this year as a result of this trade. Gasol + Horford + Joe Johnson is a formidable group out East that will give the Heat and the Bulls a good run.

Thoughts?

Shocking, right?

Looking at Utah’s cap situation and the seemingly inevitable drama that would have followed the Jazz around next season – the “Where will Deron go?” hysteria – Utah made a gutsy decision and turned a great point guard into a very good point guard, an interesting rookie, and two draft picks.

The conclusions that we can draw are:

1. Sloan’s departure hurt the Jazz in more ways than one. Some might say that Williams hated Sloan, but the Jazz never (or almost never) lost 4 games in a row during the Sloan era.

2. Williams must have given Utah a signal about leaving. Why else would they trade the cornerstone of the franchise? He must have said or done something to show the people in Utah that he wasn’t on board for the long haul.

3. The Melo’ drama scared Utah. If we assume that Williams made it clear he wasn’t planning on sticking, then we have to wonder why Utah wouldn’t try to change his mind. It’s much easier to convince a superstar to stay than it is to replace him…but the Melo’ craziness must have shown Utah that keeping Williams was difficult. Not to mention all the media circus crap.

4. Utah isn’t going to fall off the map. Devin Harris can play, and despite his defensive problems Al Jefferson can play. Harris and Jefferson are a nice inside-out combo – throw in some shooting and Utah isn’t too bad.

The two draft picks are a nice pickup too – hopefully one of them is NJ’s and hopefully it’s unprotected. Houston’s “18 protected” pick that was rumored to be included in the Melo deal isn’t much of a first-rounder.

5. What happens to Milsap? I doubt that Utah trades him now, but moving Milsap seems like a foregone conclusion either this summer or before the next trade deadline. In all likelihood, Favors is good enough to replace him in the next year.

6. What happens if NJ can’t get Williams to agree to an extension? It’s high-stakes poker if New Jersey gives up Derrick Favors and picks for a guy who hasn’t committed. Bold.

It looks like small-market teams will be more likely than ever to jump the gun when a big player comes up for free agency. In this new era where players are all friends with one another, small-market superstars seem likely to leave…maybe that’s not a bad thing. If small-market teams build around good players, smart drafting, and fundamentals, they’ll be just as capable of playing for a championship as unbalanced “super teams” with little depth.

Raymond Felton is a good passer, a decent defender, and a better shooter than Miller, and therefore he’s a better running mate for Brandon Roy. He’s also younger, so he’ll have a chance to develop chemistry with Portland’s new franchise player LaMarcus Aldridge.

In other words, Felton is a better fit than Miller.

In my opinion, Denver will be open to trading Felton right away because:

• Lawson is the new star in Denver
• Lawson has a bigger upside than Felton, which is important for a rebuilding team
• Lawson is cheaper

Therefore, if Portland is willing to offer something of substance in addition to Miller’s psuedo-expiring deal, I think they can get Denver to send Felton just a little further West.

What About Devin Harris?

It’s also been rumored that, should Carmelo head to New York, New Jersey and Portland will make a deal that sends Devin Harris, Travis Outlaw, and Anthony Morrow to Portland for Andre Miller, Joel Pryzbilla, and a youngster. I don’t like this trade for two reasons:

1. The Travis Outlaw contract – 5 years and $7 million per – is horrible.
2. Felton is probably available, and he’s a better point guard than Harris

Harris has more speed, and he could certainly be the focal-point of a new Blazers offense if Roy is indeed never again the player he once was. Still, Portland is winning games with Andre Miller, and Ray Felton is more like Andre Miller than Devin Harris is.

Felton’s contract is better too. Most teams are looking for ways to reduce their future salary commitments right now, so trading for Felton is a better move in that regard as well.

Bottom Line: If Denver is willing to move Felton (and I’m nearly certain that they will be), Portland should get involved. Ray Felton is a younger, better-shooting and more athletic version of Andre Miller, and he’s a better pure point guard than Devin Harris. He’s an upgrade now and a better player for the future.

1. Bynum has missed a lot of games this year and we still win without him
2. Kobe is on the downhill slope of his career – it’s a good idea to have a successor waiting in the wings
3. Melo might be a better player with Kobe and Phil Jackson looking over his shoulder – after all, we saw a glimpse of what Melo can do in the Denver-LA Western Conference Finals
4. Melo creates space for Gasol and Kobe and puts a lot of pressure on defenses

I also think LA is hesitant to trade for Melo because he wouldn’t improve their defense. There’s also the issue of usage – where will the ball go with Odom, Gasol, Kobe, and Melo all on the floor?

To be honest, I don’t see LA having a lot of reasons to do this deal. Unless Bynum isn’t taking things seriously and applying himself, trading him seems like the wrong move.

As far as Denver is concerned, this deal is a no-brainer. Here’s why:

1. Bynum is young, and he’s a franchise talent. Denver doesn’t want to trade Melo unless they can get a franchise talent – or a chance at drafting a franchise talent – in return. Bynum, when healthy, would be the 2nd best center in the league and a tough matchup.

2. Bynum is easy to flip. If Denver decides that Bynum isn’t the answer, they can flip him this summer for draft picks and interesting young players very easily. I think there are at least half a dozen teams that would get serious if Bynum were made available.

3. Grabbing Bynum makes moving Nene very possible. If Denver acquired Bynum, they would have every reason to trade Nene. Nene’s upside is much smaller, and he’s an older player – but he’s healthier and he doesn’t need the ball to be effective. Houston reportedly loves Nene and has a lot of great assets.

The main reason that Denver likes a Melo for Bynum deal, however, is this: Bynum brings back more than Melo in any trade scenario. Because Melo is unwilling to sign an extension with most teams, his trade value is lower than the value of Bynum, who is under contract for at least two more seasons.

I don’ t think I’d like this move if I were an LA fan, but as a Nuggets fan I’m all about it. Here’s to hoping it goes down, or at the very least gets NY to raise their offer.

Not so fast.

While it’s certainly true Denver would probably be wise to move Carmelo now, they certainly don’t have to. There are a lot of unknowns that play in Denver’s favor.

A New C.B.A.

The obvious threat in a new CBA is that player salaries would drop 10-20%. However, I don’t think they’ll fall more than 10%. Therefore, I don’t think that Melo’s primary concern is losing cash. Instead, I think he’s more concerned about his limited team options under a new agreement.

Let’s assume, first, that Melo opts out in the summer. Next, let’s figure that the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) includes a hard cap at or near the current salary cap of $58 million. Finally, let’s estimate that player salaries are scaled back about 10%.

Under these conditions, a max contract for Melo in 2011-2012 would be worth about the same amount he’s making now – $17 million. How many teams will have $17 million in cap space next year?

• Nets
• Knicks, but only if they dump the contract or two
• Indiana
• OKC
• Memphis
• Sacramento
• Houston, assuming they don’t re-sign Yao
• Minnesota

Obviously, this list is subject to change. A lot of teams could move some things around to make room…but none of these teams are likely to be contenders. OKC is definitely a contender, but I don’t see a role for Melo on that team. Jeff Green + Kevin Durant already play SF/PF pretty well…not sure what Melo adds to that team to put them over the top.

Basically, if Melo wants to play for a contender, he needs a trade to make it happen. Otherwise, he’ll have to take his chances in NY, NJ, or hope that some other team blows things up to have a chance at Melo.

Melo Needs Kroenke More Than Kroenke Needs Melo

Melo’s wish is to complete a max extension under a sign and trade arrangement with a contending team like Houston. If he wants that to happen, he can’t do it by trying to put the screws to Kroenke.

If Melo wants to sign an extension for the maximum amount of money, he needs Denver to make the offer. Trouble is, Stan Kroenke is a billionaire. He doesn’t have to worry if the Nuggets enter a long period of budget-draining “suckiness” – he can just write a check and blame the poor performance of the team on Melo’s demand to leave.

Is it in the best interest of Denver to sacrifice Melo’s rights to prove a point? Of course not. Does anyone think that a billionaire like Stan Kroenke would hesitate to put a young punk like Melo in his place?

I think he might – at least I think it’s possible. If I were Melo, I wouldn’t bet $20 million on it.

Melo needs Denver just a little more than they need him, which means it’s in Melo’s best interests to help Denver obtain value for him in a trade. Expect to see Melo be amenable to a variety of trades once the real offers start coming in.

PG – Wade, Chalmers, or Mike Miller – Wade is probably going to spend a lot of time at PG simply because they need Miller’s shooting, and Miller doesn’t have a chance of guarding speedy PGs like Rondo, Jameer Nelson, Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings, etc.

SG – Wade or Mike Miller

SF – LeBron

PF – Bosh

C – Haslem

Bench – Chalmers, Joel Anthony (who?), Raja Bell (I’m guessing on this one, but I feel pretty confident), and anyone who wants a ring bad enough to play for a paltry 1.3 million.

The question is, how will this group play and how will they match up with the rest of Eastern Conference?

Heat: Chemistry and Coaching

1. A good friend of mine who played college basketball once told me that “everyone is happy with their role as long as they’re winning.” While this axiom is probably true, I’m a little skeptical that Wade and LeBron can happily co-exist. It seems that Wade is set to be the closer on this team, and while I think LeBron will probably appreciate that, it remains to be seen if these guys will be able to share the glory.

2. LeBron is used to having full control. It’s well documented that LeBron and his entourage had free reign in Cleveland. How will he deal with the iron fist of Pat Riley? No more cronies on the team plane, no more calling his own plays, etc.

3. Coach Spolestra seems like he’s about to get screwed over by Riley. It won’t shock me is Spolestra takes a backseat around the holidays. While this might seem like a good thing, it’s important to note that a team with a lame duck coach usually isn’t very disciplined.

Truth be told, these three issues are probably very small. Still, you never know.

How The Heat Match-up

Assuming everyone is healthy (and that’s a big assumption), here’s how the new-look Heat will probably match-up with their potential Eastern Conference rivals:

Boston – Rond0 and Allen are at least as capable as any combination of Wade, Miller, and Chalmers. Rondo’s jumpshot will continue to improve, Allen will always be a great outside threat, and neither Wade or Miller has a hope of guarding Rondo effectively for 40 minutes a night. Wade will come close, but only at the expense of a lot of offensive production. Miami’s lack of a true PG will hurt them against the Celtics.

At the wing, it’s clear that LeBron is better than Pierce. However, Pierce will still manage to make LeBron work for his points just as he has done in years past. Finally, at the 4 and the 5, I think Bosh + Haslem + some vet’s minimum bigs are no better than a rotation of Garnett, Perkins, Jermaine O’Neal, and Rasheed Wallace (assuming he doesn’t retire).

A series between these two will likely come down to coaching and chemistry, which is why I mentioned all of that first. Boston is going to miss Thibodeau in this one, so I’d call it 50-50.

Orlando – The x-factor in Orlando is Dwight Howard. If he can somehow learn to hit his free throws and make an occasional jumpshot, he can single-handedly dominate the Heat. Bosh is too soft to bang with Howard, and frankly the Heat can’t afford to let Bosh guard him anyways (the risk of foul trouble is just too great). There’s also the fact that Gortat is going to be significantly better than any big on Miami’s bench. If Dwight and Gortat improve a little (and they probably will), Orlando’s front court is going to dominate.

As for the wing, I’m assuming we’ll see more of Rashard Lewis at the 3. If so, that’s a tough match-up for both teams. LeBron doesn’t have the height to guard Lewis, and Lewis doesn’t have the speed to cover LeBron. It will be interesting, but LeBron probably has the edge here.

Finally, Orlando’s back court of Nelson, Duhon, Vince Carter, and JJ Redick (assuming he’s retained) is going to be at least as good as Miami’s rotation. Wade is great of course, but he’s going to need to do it all on both ends to have a chance. I’m not saying he can’t, I’m just saying that 40 minutes of chasing Redick or Nelson off screens, and/or hounding Duhon and Nelson as they bring the ball up the court, and/or keeping Vince out of the lane is a big workload for the Heat’s primary scorer.

If Dwight Howard improves into a better shooter (as he should), Miami will lose to the Magic because of a lack of rebounding, size, and subsequent foul trouble. If Howard doesn’t improve, the Magic will still have a very slight edge over Miami.

Chicago, Milwaukee, and Atlanta will all present challenges to the Heat, but only the Bucks and the Bulls have a clear advantage over Miami (both teams have a much better frontcourt).

• Chicago’s lack of outside shooting will make it hard for them to beat the Heat, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me to see Chicago win some tight games and take a series to 7 games.
• The Bucks shouldn’t be counted out either – Scott Skiles coaches defense, and the Heat will struggle to win a slow, grind-it-out game. With Bogut’s clear superiority at the center position and an improving Jennings, this team will threaten any team on any given night.
• Atlanta seems like they’re missing something. If they find it (I’m not sure what it is) they can be very good. A new coach might be enough to move (only a true center and a better defender at PG would help).

Who wins the conference? It’s too early to make a prediction, but if I had to guess today I’d say Orlando or Boston. Miami’s lack of front court players is a real weakness, and their lack of consistent outside shooting (Wade and LeBron are too streaky) will make it hard for them to win a grind-it-out game against either squad.