No Blood No Foul

Detroit’s decision to trade Ben Gordon for Corey Maggette and a 1st rounder is a good one – it saves Detroit money, balances their rotation, and begins the rebuilding process. Here’s what we know:

1. At best, the Pistons are a borderline playoff team as currently constructed. Miami, Indiana, Chicago, the Hawks, and the Knicks are all but certain to make the playoffs in 12-13. After that, Detroit could be competing with a Boston team that’s reloaded, an Orlando team that somehow manages to hang on to Howard, the Bucks, Philly, and perhaps even the Wizards – 11 teams in all. If we assume that only 3 playoff spots are up for grabs, that’s 6 teams competing for 3 spots.
2. More likely, the Pistons are a lottery team. The odds of Detroit making the playoffs ahead of Boston, Philly, Milwaukee, the Wizards, or maybe Orlando aren’t too hot. 50% seems generous. (more…)

As I write this post, the 2nd round has been underway for about an hour (only I haven’t seen a minute of them yet). Here are my predictions:

Eastern Conference

• Boston over Philly in 6
• Miami over Indy in 5

Western Conference

• OKC in  5 games, no matter who they play
• SAS over Memphis in 6 games OR SAS over the Clippers in 5

More on these picks – as well as a recap of the first round – below. (more…)

Just about one month ago, Denver traded Nene for Javale McGee. The consensus at the time of the trade seemed to be that Denver got younger and – in all likelihood – better (see NBA TV analysis, Roundball Mining Company from March 16th, and Hochman at the Denver Post), with DenverStiffs.com disagreeing slightly to say that McGee wasn’t as good as Nene as an NBA player, but that he was a much better asset than Nene. BulletsForever.com also stated that this was a good trade, albeit 2 weeks after the fact.

Predictably, Nuggets fanboys are starting to second-guess their own analysis. Roundball Mining Company now feels that trading for McGee was a mistake, half-heartedly arguing that McGee has no value before complaining that McGee might warrant a large contract in the off-season.

To me, this was a smart trade that comes down to three factors:

1. Building a balanced roster that will peak at the same time
2. Saving money
3. Maintaining future flexibility

Here’s how I’m going to break this out. First, I’m going to look at Nene and McGee as players, then connect that with Denver’s plan to build a champion while also making money and staying flexible. (more…)

Here’s what we know about the Lakers: They need a point guard. Badly. So badly that they might even miss the playoffs without one.

Here’s what we know about Houston: They need to turn their bench full of young talent into a difference maker.

Finally, here’s what we know about Phoenix: They need to trade Steve Nash soon if they want anything in return for him. Otherwise, there’s a good chance he’ll walk away for nothing this summer when the Knicks offer him the full mid-level.

So, why not put together the following trade:

1. Gasol and a pick to Houston
2. Scola to L.A.
3. Thabeet, Flynn, Courtney Lee, and a draft pick go to Phoenix
4. Nash goes to L.A.

Here’s why this works: (more…)

According to most reports, the Lakers are currently in the lead for the rights to acquire Chris Paul (as of December 7, 2011). The problem is, L.A. doesn’t quite have the right assets to land Chris Paul. Here’s why, and here’s a logical solution:

What New Orleans Wants: Losing Paul is going to kick start a rebuilding process, and that means that the Hornets need to turn solid veterans with big contracts (i.e., Emeka Okafor) into less expensive players and assets. The Hornets also want good first round draft picks.

• Takeaway: New Orleans probably isn’t going to trade Chris Paul unless Okafor goes along with him.

What Los Angeles Wants: Chris Paul at any cost. Paul can be the face of the Lakers for the rest of this decade, succeeding Kobe. Furthermore, Paul + the Hollywood lifestyle will ensure that L.A. can entice free agents for years to come.

• Takeaway: L.A. will probably trade anyone who isn’t named Kobe to acquire Paul.

The Problem: If we look at the centerpieces of the Chris Paul – Lakers trade:

1. New Orleans would pass on a Bynum for Paul trade because that doesn’t get rid of Okafor.
2. Trading Paul + Okafor for Bynum + Gasol (or perhaps Bynum + Odom), solves #1, but neither Odom nor Gasol help the Hornets rebuild. There’s also the fact that Odom and Gasol are incredibly expensive players for a rebuilding team.
3. The Lakers can offer first round picks, but none of the picks are going to be very high. They’re likely to come in the late 20′s, which is nothing to get excited about considering Golden State and the Clippers can offer more.

The Solution: Why not pull in the Hawks?

Josh Smith is available, and Atlanta has picks they might be willing to offer up in a Gasol trade. L.A. could then trade the pick(s) from Atlanta to New Orleans (along with a pick or two of their own) and take back Okafor and Paul. Here’s the deal I would propose:

• L.A. gets Chris Paul, Okafor, and Josh Smith
• New Orleans gets Bynum, Kirk Hinrich, and draft picks from both Atlanta and L.A.
• Atlanta gets Gasol and saves about $2 million in salary

Everyone wins. (more…)

Adrian Wojnarowski is reporting that Devin Harris and Derrick Favors have been traded to the Jazz for Deron Williams.

Shocking, right?

Looking at Utah’s cap situation and the seemingly inevitable drama that would have followed the Jazz around next season – the “Where will Deron go?” hysteria – Utah made a gutsy decision and turned a great point guard into a very good point guard, an interesting rookie, and two draft picks.

The conclusions that we can draw are: (more…)