• Billups vs. Kidd – This will come down to Billups being able to score in transition. Kidd is slow, and if he’s out of position because he’s trying to pull down a rebound, Billups is going to get an easy look. Since Billups matches Kidd in terms of playmaking, and since Kidd’s offense is pretty poor, Kidd needs to keep Billups from scoring a lot (like he did tonight) to win the matchup. Billups is the guy in this series, but it’s going to be close.

• Smith vs. Terry – At best, Terry will have a huge night and win a game by himself. At worst, he’ll match his regular season performances. Smith is likely to choke in at least one of the games in this series, so Terry will win the matchup overall. Too bad Denver’s Dahntay Jones will completely outplay Barea. The Nuggets win this matchup because their 2 guard tandem is better.

• Melo vs. Howard – I wouldn’t be surprised if Melo underwhelms in this series. The more I see him play in the playoffs, the more I think he’s not a franchise player. Still, he does demand a double team wherever he goes. That makes him the winner in this matchup against the above-average Josh Howard.

• Nowitzki vs. K-Mart – K-Mart clearly wasn’t ready for Nowitzki tonight, and I don’t think he’ll ever be able to bother Dirk the way he was able to bother David West in the last round. Dirk’s range is just too much for Kenyon. Still, I can’t help but think that Kenyon will adjust. My guess is that Dirk only has one more game where he’ll play as well as he did tonight, while Kenyon’s game performances will only get better as the series grinds on. Dirk wins this matchup hands down, but unfortunately for the Mavs Dirk’s best isn’t enough to win the series.

• Dampier vs. Nene – This is the key to the series. If Nene is aggressive and scores regularly, a lot of things will open up for Denver and the games won’t be too hard. On the other hand, if Damp can intimidate Nene (which he’s fully capable of doing), the games are going to be close. I think a close game is an advantage for Dallas, but as of now this matchup looks like Denver’s advantage to lose.

• The Benches – Denver’s bench begins and ends with Chris Anderson and Anthony Carter. These two were instrumental in Denver’s win today, and their veteran skills won’t dissapear on the road like the Mavs younger bench players Barea, Hollins, and Bass (yes I know Barea started, but he’s a bench player in my eyes). Still, I think team B.B.H. is going to be a handful in Dallas. The matchup favors Denver simply because Denver has home-court.

• The Coaches – I think Rick Carlisle has the advantage here. Karl’s a decent coach, but he’s been yelling and screaming at his team for years – the Nuggets tuned out Karl a long time ago. Carlisle, on the other hand, has the complete attention of his players. Carlisle will be a big part of the reason Dallas edges Denver in any close games, and he gives Dallas the edge here.

The prediction – Nuggets in 6.

Where does that leave Denver in the next round against the winner of the Lakers/Rockets? More on that later…

Dallas knows they don’t quite have enough to get over the hump right now, so they’ve been exploring a trade for Jason Kidd. While I’m a huge fan of Jason Kidd, I don’t think he makes Dallas a championship team because he doesn’t help them in the post. But what about Shaq? Riley has hinted that he might be available saying that a contending team would “value Shaq’s production” (then quickly denying a trade is possible – ya right).

The downsides to trading for Shaq are numerous – Shaq is getting kind of old and kind of fat (at least by NBA standards – no disrespect), his contract is huge ($20 million a year), and he just isn’t the dominant player he once was. But that doesn’t mean Shaq isn’t still effective – he’s a reliable post presence that would probably still command a double team in a playoff game. Dallas could use his skills, and owner Mark Cuban isn’t afraid of spending money to win. Playing for Dallas, Shaq gets at least one more chance to show just how dominant he can be.

Shaq in Dallas would be an upgrade.

The big question – what would Dallas have to give up to get Shaq? Jason Terry seems to be a likely candidate – he’s not a primary option in Dallas any more, but his ability to dish combined with his excellent shooting (39% career behind the arc) makes him a good back court compliment to Dwayne Wade. Miami isn’t going to be satisfied with taking back just a 30 year old PG – they’re probably going to want to get a big back (Diop), an expiring contract (George), and Miami is probably going to try to unload Smush Parker as part of any deal. Dallas might have to surrender a draft pick or two, and Dallas would also need to include a fourth player (probably Trenton Hassell) to make the numbers work.

So Dallas gives up Terry, Diop, Devean George, and Trenton Hassell and they get back Shaq and Smush. Sounds sort of one-sided until you consider that Dallas will have Shaq’s $20 million a year contract. Dallas will be hog-tied by the salary cap for the next two years. However, I think owner Mark Cuban would live with that if it meant winning a championship or two. It’s hard to imagine that Josh Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, and Shaquille O’Neal aren’t enough to challenge Phoenix and San Antonio for the western conference title, especially considering they’ll still have Stackhouse and Devin Harris.

In this scenario I’ve created, Miami would only have 8 players under contract next year with a total salary of less than $45 million…that’s a lot of cap space. Miami rebuilds around D-Wade and Terry, with the ability to try and sign un-restricted free agents in the summer of 2008. Shawn Marion and Antwan Jamison will both be available, as well as Ron Artest. Most importantly, trading Shaq gives Miami a chance to rebuild now that it’s clear they’re not a contender in their current make-up. If Miami can pick-up Shawn Marion in the summer, they’re right back in the playoff mix next year.

The big problems with this trade:

• Riley would have to admit defeat by trading Shaq.

• Dallas would lose some key players that won’t be easy to replace.

• Shaq’s ability to get up and down the court in Dallas will be limited.

• Dallas will miss Terry’s bench scoring.

This trade probably won’t happen – it’s too risky for Dallas (especially if Shaq gets hurt), but it’s a neat idea…

1) Phoenix Suns – With all the angst from last season, these guys have got a big chip on their shoulder that should translate to the best record in the league.

2) Dallas Mavericks – Just because they bombed out of the first round last year doesn’t mean they won’t be a force in the regular season. There’s nothing wrong with this team.

3) San Antonio Spurs – Every year I think “these guys are too old”, but they just keep getting it done. As long as Duncan and Parker are healthy, they’re the team to beat.

4) Denver Nuggets – The Nuggets will beat out the Jazz for the best record in the Northwest division. They’ve got an easy schedule through December, and they’ll finish strong as usual.

5) Utah Jazz – The Jazz had an interesting off-season that will impact their regular season performance, but they should manage to stay very close to Denver for the division lead.

6) Houston Rockets – Adelman’s clever offensive scheme will make Yao Ming the best player in the west (at least on paper), but there will be a learning curve.

7) Golden State Warriors – Assuming Baron Davis is healthy, Warriors run-and-gun basketball will challenge every team they play in the regular season.

8 ) Memphis Grizzlies – Pau Gasol can be a dominant player when healthy, and this team has a enough talent to make a grab for the last spot in the playoffs.

While I’m not going to predict how these seeds will perform in the playoffs until we get closer, I will officially declare my favorite to win the Western Conference. (drum roll…)

Phoenix. The Suns have everything they need to win, and they won’t be denied this year because of questionable calls. While I’m at it, I’ll go ahead and say that Phoenix will also be the NBA champ in the upcoming season.

Also, my pick for last place in the Western conference goes to the Sonics. Between the lack of veteran talent, the lack of defense, and the ownership’s bid to move the team, anything more than a terrible season is wishful thinking.