PG – Wade, Chalmers, or Mike Miller – Wade is probably going to spend a lot of time at PG simply because they need Miller’s shooting, and Miller doesn’t have a chance of guarding speedy PGs like Rondo, Jameer Nelson, Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings, etc.

SG – Wade or Mike Miller

SF – LeBron

PF – Bosh

C – Haslem

Bench – Chalmers, Joel Anthony (who?), Raja Bell (I’m guessing on this one, but I feel pretty confident), and anyone who wants a ring bad enough to play for a paltry 1.3 million.

The question is, how will this group play and how will they match up with the rest of Eastern Conference?

Heat: Chemistry and Coaching

1. A good friend of mine who played college basketball once told me that “everyone is happy with their role as long as they’re winning.” While this axiom is probably true, I’m a little skeptical that Wade and LeBron can happily co-exist. It seems that Wade is set to be the closer on this team, and while I think LeBron will probably appreciate that, it remains to be seen if these guys will be able to share the glory.

2. LeBron is used to having full control. It’s well documented that LeBron and his entourage had free reign in Cleveland. How will he deal with the iron fist of Pat Riley? No more cronies on the team plane, no more calling his own plays, etc.

3. Coach Spolestra seems like he’s about to get screwed over by Riley. It won’t shock me is Spolestra takes a backseat around the holidays. While this might seem like a good thing, it’s important to note that a team with a lame duck coach usually isn’t very disciplined.

Truth be told, these three issues are probably very small. Still, you never know.

How The Heat Match-up

Assuming everyone is healthy (and that’s a big assumption), here’s how the new-look Heat will probably match-up with their potential Eastern Conference rivals:

Boston – Rond0 and Allen are at least as capable as any combination of Wade, Miller, and Chalmers. Rondo’s jumpshot will continue to improve, Allen will always be a great outside threat, and neither Wade or Miller has a hope of guarding Rondo effectively for 40 minutes a night. Wade will come close, but only at the expense of a lot of offensive production. Miami’s lack of a true PG will hurt them against the Celtics.

At the wing, it’s clear that LeBron is better than Pierce. However, Pierce will still manage to make LeBron work for his points just as he has done in years past. Finally, at the 4 and the 5, I think Bosh + Haslem + some vet’s minimum bigs are no better than a rotation of Garnett, Perkins, Jermaine O’Neal, and Rasheed Wallace (assuming he doesn’t retire).

A series between these two will likely come down to coaching and chemistry, which is why I mentioned all of that first. Boston is going to miss Thibodeau in this one, so I’d call it 50-50.

Orlando – The x-factor in Orlando is Dwight Howard. If he can somehow learn to hit his free throws and make an occasional jumpshot, he can single-handedly dominate the Heat. Bosh is too soft to bang with Howard, and frankly the Heat can’t afford to let Bosh guard him anyways (the risk of foul trouble is just too great). There’s also the fact that Gortat is going to be significantly better than any big on Miami’s bench. If Dwight and Gortat improve a little (and they probably will), Orlando’s front court is going to dominate.

As for the wing, I’m assuming we’ll see more of Rashard Lewis at the 3. If so, that’s a tough match-up for both teams. LeBron doesn’t have the height to guard Lewis, and Lewis doesn’t have the speed to cover LeBron. It will be interesting, but LeBron probably has the edge here.

Finally, Orlando’s back court of Nelson, Duhon, Vince Carter, and JJ Redick (assuming he’s retained) is going to be at least as good as Miami’s rotation. Wade is great of course, but he’s going to need to do it all on both ends to have a chance. I’m not saying he can’t, I’m just saying that 40 minutes of chasing Redick or Nelson off screens, and/or hounding Duhon and Nelson as they bring the ball up the court, and/or keeping Vince out of the lane is a big workload for the Heat’s primary scorer.

If Dwight Howard improves into a better shooter (as he should), Miami will lose to the Magic because of a lack of rebounding, size, and subsequent foul trouble. If Howard doesn’t improve, the Magic will still have a very slight edge over Miami.

Chicago, Milwaukee, and Atlanta will all present challenges to the Heat, but only the Bucks and the Bulls have a clear advantage over Miami (both teams have a much better frontcourt).

• Chicago’s lack of outside shooting will make it hard for them to beat the Heat, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me to see Chicago win some tight games and take a series to 7 games.
• The Bucks shouldn’t be counted out either – Scott Skiles coaches defense, and the Heat will struggle to win a slow, grind-it-out game. With Bogut’s clear superiority at the center position and an improving Jennings, this team will threaten any team on any given night.
• Atlanta seems like they’re missing something. If they find it (I’m not sure what it is) they can be very good. A new coach might be enough to move (only a true center and a better defender at PG would help).

Who wins the conference? It’s too early to make a prediction, but if I had to guess today I’d say Orlando or Boston. Miami’s lack of front court players is a real weakness, and their lack of consistent outside shooting (Wade and LeBron are too streaky) will make it hard for them to win a grind-it-out game against either squad.

1. Confirming the existence of the list hurts Bosh’s image with Toronto’s fans. The fact that a list officially exists hurts Bosh’s standing with fans. Colangelo wouldn’t do that to his star player unless he felt like his chances of staying in Toronto were slim.

2. Colangelo is starting the sign-and-trade ball rolling. Now that NBA GM’s are aware Bosh can be had, it’s time for them to start calling Toronto and making a pitch to Colangelo. Obviously, the final move is up to Chris Bosh…but if someone calls and offers a superstar to Toronto to try and acquire Bosh, that’s going to help set the value for a sign-and-trade. The next question is…

Where Is Bosh Headed?

Here are the four teams Bosh supposedly wants to play for next year and my estimation of their chances of trading for him.

Chicago – Unless they’re willing to part with Joakim Noah, I think the other teams on this list can make a better offer. I suppose that Bosh could try and force his way to Chicago, but the best move for everyone is to work together. Without giving up Noah, the best players Chicago can offer are Hinrich (who Toronto doesn’t need), Deng (overpaid and also a guy Toronto doesn’t need), and then a nice inexpensive young PF (Gibson or Johnson). Granted, Chicago can throw some picks at Toronto, but so can most of the teams on this list.

Lakers – This one makes a hell of a lot of sense if the rumors of Bynum’s availability are true. Bynum for Bosh is as close to a win-win as Toronto can get. Having said that, if the Lakers win the championship, why would they change their team? If the Lakers want to offer Bynum, they’ll have the best offer on the table.

Miami – Miami’s chances are better than Chicago, but they’re still sort of slim. Miami’s best trade pieces are Beasley and draft picks (including the 18th pick this summer). Miami shouldn’t be counted out – Beasley isn’t a bad return on Bosh – but it’s going to take pressure from Bosh to make this happen.

By the way – I could see Toronto packaging Calderon with Bosh if Miami gets involved…but Miami is going to have to sacrifice their draft picks for the next few years to get it done.

New York – The Knicks seem like a long shot to land Bosh in a sign and trade. Not only are they division rivals, but they don’t have a lot of talent they can send back. They’ve also given most of their draft picks away. One interesting wrinkle, however, could be trading both Bosh and Turkoglu for Curry and Gallinari.

• If I’m running things in Toronto, the opportunity to dump Turk would be tempting, especially if I got a cheap young player of equivalent talent in return. Curry might actually be able to help Toronto, but if he can’t, it’s a small price to pay to be out from under Turk’s ridiculous deal.
• If I’m running things in New York, I look at this deal because it helps me convince Joe Johnson to come to the Big Apple. Turk is overpaid for sure, but he’s also a mis-match SF who can help open up the middle.

In any case, I think the market for Bosh hinges on how the Lakers play in the Finals. If Gasol exhibits some new-found toughness, L.A. will consider sliding him over to center and bringing in Bosh. If not, it’s going to be hard to give up on Bynum…unless of course L.A. tanks against Boston, but I don’t think that will happen.

1. Phoenix can win almost as many games without Amare as they can with him. If you saw Phoenix and Dallas play last Thursday, you know that Phoenix has a bunch of scrappy young athletic bigs that can shoot and finish. I’m not saying they’re better without Amare – no chance – but they’re not much worse is he leaves town.
2. Phoenix could lose Amare this summer for nothing.
3. Phoenix can’t afford Amare if he decides not to opt out. Phoenix needs Amare off the books this summer if they want to make some moves and make their team better without going over the luxury cap.
4. Phoenix can still get under the luxury cap. If Phoenix can trade for a talented young PF while also reducing salary by about $3 million (possible), they might consider trading Channing Frye to a team with a trade exception (hello Nuggets!) to get under the cap. This would be HUGE financially.

Here’s the trick for Phoenix: whatever move Phoenix makes, it has to be viewed as part of a bigger plan to get better. If Steve Nash decides Phoenix is throwing in the towel and asks for a trade, Phoenix becomes a less talented version of the Golden State Warriors. Here are the possibilities:

Amare To Chicago

Chicago can offer Phoenix a great package in terms of talent: Hinrich & Tyrus Thomas for Amare would make Phoenix deeper, allow J-Rich to move to SF, and give Phoenix a reasonable way to rest Nash while Dragic rounds into form. I’d also guess that T.Thomas would look good playing next to Steve Nash (sort of like a young Amare).

However, I don’t think Chicago is interested in trading for Amare right now. Unless it becomes clear to Chicago that they have no chance of signing D-Wade or Bosh this summer, I think they’ll sit on their hands and see what happens. Chicago can always bid on Amare this summer.

Besides, Chicago has been playing well lately. Why break-up a team that might sneak into the 2nd round?

Amare to NJ

The Nets have the right combo for Phoenix: Yi Jianlin (good young talent), expiring contracts, a first round draft pick, and a way to move Phoenix out of the luxury tax this season.

Why it works for Phoenix:

• Yi’s potential is something Phoenix can probably sell to fans and Steve Nash
• A trade of Yi, Battie, and Simmons for Amare and Jarron Collins saves Phoenix $3.8 million in salary. Phoenix could then dump Frye OR pay someone to take Dooling off their hands and get out of tax territory.

Why it works for NJ:

• Bosh, Lebron, and D-Wade aren’t even going to consider NJ if they finish with the worst record of all time. Amare is the consolation prize (and not a bad one at that).
• If NJ trades for Amare and he opts out, NJ is still the most likely to sign him.
• NJ has enough cap space to extend Amare and still be a player in free agency this summer.
• Trading for Amare is the easiest way to end the nightmare for NJ’s fans. He would help them win enough games to avoid the worst record of all time, yet not so many that they would wreck their chances at the 1st overall draft pick.

Amare to Miami

Miami is a long-shot to land Amare simply because they won’t part with Beasley, they don’t have “extra” draft picks sitting around like NJ, and they can’t make a deal that saves Phoenix a lot of money. Trading for Amare would also mean that Miami losses any hope of signing Bosh this summer.

Miami is going to wait for a shot at signing Bosh, and they should.

Amare to Cleveland

Cleveland might offer Phoenix Big-Z and JJ Hickson + filler and a very late first-round pick…but this probably won’t happen.

• This deal isn’t that great for Phoenix – they can probably do better in terms of talent.
• Cleveland is taking an awful risk. If Amare doesn’t opt out, Cleveland won’t be able to take a run at Chris Bosh.
• Cleveland doesn’t need to make a change right now. They’re arguably the best or 2nd best team in the league.

Amare to Golden State

Who knows on this one. Nellie is irrational, the Warriors don’t have a long-term plan, and it’s impossible to read the management in Golden State. However, Phoenix would be hard-pressed to turn down a package that included Biedrins, one of Golden State’s talented youngsters, a draft pick, and a possible reunion with Raja Bell. If Golden State wants Amare, they can get him…but there’s no clear indication that they really want him.

Still, it must be said that Amar’e can flat-out ball. The guy has moves, an excellent mid-range game, and he can finish. If the Suns really are interested in moving Amar’e for a combination of youth and expiring contracts (as the report on Yahoo suggested), there are only a handful of teams that have a legit opportunity to land Amar’e.

It’s important to remember that whoever trades for Amar’e has to believe they can keep him beyond his opt-out in 2010, so you can scratch small market teams off the list. You can also cross all Western conference teams off the list of trade partners. Phoenix isn’t looking to improve any of their rivals.

In the east, Cleveland is out (they have no youth to trade back).  Detroit is possible, but a package of Rasheed Wallace, Jason Maxiell, and a couple of draft picks would be hard for Steve Kerr to explain. New York is also a possibility, but they also lack youth (only David Lee would interest the Suns.) There’s also  a lot of bad blood between Phoenix, D’Antoni, and Amar’e.

I believe you can cross every Eastern Conference team off the list except for one – Chicago. A trade of Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, and Drew Gooden for Amar’e, Tucker, and Amundson makes sense for both sides – here’s why:

Chicago gains a running mate for Derrick Rose. Amar’e can be the number one option on offense in Chicago, meaning he’s a lot more likely to be happy. Losing Deng and T.T. hurts of course, but Amar’e isn’t going to come free. Besides, shipping Deng off to Phoenix helps bring Chicago’s roster a little more into balance. With Deng gone, Chicago wouldn’t have to feel bad about paying Nocioni starter’s money (because he would be starting).  The bottom line for Chicago – Rose and Amar’e can do some real damage in the East, no question. With Ben Gordon and Nocioni filling up the rim from outside, Hinrich coming off the bench, and Noah being big and burly in the middle, Chicago could have the talent to compete for a championship.

For Phoenix, the opportunity to add TWO solid young players is too much to pass by. Not to mention the fact that Drew Gooden can step in and start right next to Shaq and compliment him defensively (Gooden won’t set the world on fire, but he’ll rebound and defend better than Amar’e). Adding Deng to the starting rotation in Phoenix softens the blow that will come from losing Amar’e's offense, and it also allows Grant Hill to come off the bench so he’ll be fresh for the playoffs. If Phoenix is lucky, Tyrus Thomas someday matures into “Amar’e Light.”

For Phoenix, this deal keeps the championship dream alive while also buidling for the future. For Chicago, adding Stoudemire all but gaurantees a playoff appearance this year.

However, the best part of this deal is that both sides will firmly believe they completely screwed the other. Chicago will brag about dumping over-paid and under-achieving Deng and the inconsistent Thomas for an all-star, and Phoenix will gush about the fact that they dumped a malcontent forward who couldn’t guard a phone booth for two up-and-coming stars.

The key to a good trade, you see, is when both sides think they completely took advantage of the other. If Amar’e gets traded in 2009, my guess is that he’s headed to Chicago for Deng and Thomas.

So who will it be – which big will the Clippers trade for a swingman? The consensus choice is to move Kaman. Kaman and Randolph don’t really complement each other (at least on paper), whereas Camby and Randolph seem like they can balance each other fairly well. So where will Kaman go?

Here’s a list of potential trade partners:

• Charlotte seems like a perfect match. Gerald Wallace is a top-notch SF, Kaman is a top-notch PF/C. Neither is a superstar, but both could be in the right situation. This move likely makes both teams a little better. Still, you have to wonder why this deal hasn’t happened already. Perhaps Charlotte isn’t quite ready to part with Gerald Wallace…or perhaps there are some pieces involved that can’t be traded until the 15th of December.

• Chicago is intriguing. The Bulls need a scoring big (Tyrus Thomas is still very raw and Noah isn’t capable of becoming a scoring threat), and they have exactly what the Clippers need in Andres Nocioni and Ben Gordon. Gordon has made no secret of his desire to leave Chicago, and Nocioni is a luxury Chicago likely can’t afford (not with Deng’s humongous contract). Still, the chances of this deal being made during the season are slim. Gordon loses his Bird rights if he’s traded, and considering just how much he thinks he’s worth, that’s not going to happen (Gordon can veto an in-season trade). If this deal did go down next year, both teams would be much better.

• What about the Wizards? The Wizards look like a team blowing apart. Losses are stacking up, Gilbert Arenas is talking about the positives of ending up in the lottery, and the Eastern Conference isn’t getting any softer. The Wizards haven’t been very competitive playing three perimeter all-stars in the playoffs, so maybe they should shake things up and swap Caron Butler for Kaman. Losing “tough juice” would be hard for the fans in Washington, but playing an inside-out game with Agent Zero and Kaman (with Tawn’ around to knock down open jumpers and create mismatches) would be much more traditional. It would be a bold move for the Wizards (Butler might just be the glue that holds the team together), but what they’ve been doing isn’t working. LA ends up with the best prize in this deal – a tough defender and able scorer that knows how to work with an egomaniac.

Of course, the Clippers could move Camby. His deal wouldn’t bring them as much in the way of superstar talent, but he would definitely help fill-in some of the team’s gaps. Perhaps the critics (me included) will see that Kaman and Randolph can play together. Perhaps that’s what the Clippers are hoping for too.

No matter what happens, Chris Kaman or Marcus Camby are leaving Clipperland within the next year – likely before the trade deadline.

1. The Spurs struggle to put points on the board, which puts a lot of pressure on their franchise player Tim Duncan to produce night-in and night-out.
2. Duncan is getting older and the championship window opens or closes with him.
3. Manu Ginobili, arguably the Spurs best pure scorer, could miss the first month or two of the season.

The Chicago Bulls have some problems as well, and a trade or two seems inevitable:

1. With Luol Deng’s big new contract, Nocioni’s contract is a luxury they can’t afford.
2. Captain Kirk Hinrich doesn’t fit their long term plans.
3. Chicago isn’t in a very good position to participate in free agency in 2010, at least not without renouncing the rights to a young player or two.
4. Chicago is a team without a clear-cut leader or go-to scorer.

So why don’t these two teams make a trade? San Antonio sends Manu Ginobili, Bruce Bowen, and a throw-in (Matt Bonner) to Chicago for Andres Nocioni and Kirk Hinrich.

Here’s how San Antonio improves: Hinrich and Nocioni can start at the 2 and the 3, respectively. Captain Kirk is just as capable of a ball handler and passer as Manu Ginobili, and while he’s not as good of a 3pt shooter as Manu according to the stats, I’d like to see what Kirk can do when he gets wide open (something he hasn’t enjoyed much in Chicago). Besides, Hinrich wouldn’t need to knock down as many 3′s with Nocioni on the floor. The Captain can also backup Tony Parker as needed, another bonus for the Spurs.

Nocioni’s hustle play, 3pt range, and solid mid-range game would help to compensate for a lot of Manu’s intangibles (Nocioni seems ideal for the Spurs by the way). Even better, Nocioni and Hinrich would provide comparable defense to the combo of Manu Ginobili and the aging Bruce Bowen – while also offering quite a bit more offense. Team rebounding would improve, and because of these two new players San Antonio’s offensive attack would be more balanced. Tim Duncan’s workload would also be reduced with Hinrich and Nocioni on the floor to score and rebound.

If the Spurs make this trade they get younger, score easier, and don’t skip a beat in terms of defense. Since the contracts of Hinrich and Nocioni get smaller every year, the Spurs would still have a chance of landing a solid free agent in 2010 provided they avoid any more long-term deals. With 4 starters signed, that’s a good bet.

One more benefit for the Spurs – they probably won’t be dropping any close games when the season starts. If San Antonio doesn’t make this move and instead waits for Ginobili to get healthy, there’s a good chance they’ll miss a few early-season wins. That could translate into a much tougher post-season (and another missed opportunity).

What’s in it for Chicago: The Bulls need leadership – badly. When he returns from his injury, Ginobili brings that leadership along with a will to win that ignites this young team. He becomes the leader the Bulls are lacking. He has enough talent to lead the Bulls back into the playoffs now. Bruce Bowen provides toughness and leadership (and most likely limited minutes), as well as giving the Bulls some real defensive chops. Just imagine how much better of a player Luol Deng will become if he practices with Bowen. Bowen and Ginobili also help freshman coach Vinny Del Negro get up to speeed and set the right tone in the locker room.

Perhaps just as importantly, Chicago gets rid of two long term contracts that they really don’t need. Hinrich’s PG skills are officially redundant with Derrick Rose on the roster. Nocioni is a great energy guy, but his contract is too expensive for a bench player. With contracts pending for Sefolosha and Tyrus Thomas in the summer of 2010, moving the contracts of Nocioni and Hinrich clears plenty of space for Chicago to re-sign their own young talent while also being able to participate in the big free-agent market.

Bottom line: What this really comes down to for San Antonio is that it gives them at least one more shot at a title, and probably 2 or 3. The triumvirate of Ginobili, Parker, and Duncan almost got it done last year, but with Bowen showing his age and Ginobili’s helter-skelter playing style, it seems risky to rely on either one of those players much longer. The Spurs need to do something to make their team better, and as important as Ginobili is, his injury risk is too great. His prime is just about past – why not trade him now for maximum value? Indeed this deal is such a no-brainer for Chicago that they would likely part with a first round pick or two. Chicago is going to try and trade Hinrich and Nocioni anyways – the prospect of getting back a real team leader in Manu Ginobili should be enough to get Chicago to cough up a couple of picks.

Why doesn’t this deal make sense? Chemistry perhaps – moving Manu is breaking up the three amigos. However, the truth is that Duncan is the Spurs. He is the most important player, and everyone else is expendable.

But what do you think??