What New Orleans Wants: Losing Paul is going to kick start a rebuilding process, and that means that the Hornets need to turn solid veterans with big contracts (i.e., Emeka Okafor) into less expensive players and assets. The Hornets also want good first round draft picks.

• Takeaway: New Orleans probably isn’t going to trade Chris Paul unless Okafor goes along with him.

What Los Angeles Wants: Chris Paul at any cost. Paul can be the face of the Lakers for the rest of this decade, succeeding Kobe. Furthermore, Paul + the Hollywood lifestyle will ensure that L.A. can entice free agents for years to come.

• Takeaway: L.A. will probably trade anyone who isn’t named Kobe to acquire Paul.

The Problem: If we look at the centerpieces of the Chris Paul – Lakers trade:

1. New Orleans would pass on a Bynum for Paul trade because that doesn’t get rid of Okafor.
2. Trading Paul + Okafor for Bynum + Gasol (or perhaps Bynum + Odom), solves #1, but neither Odom nor Gasol help the Hornets rebuild. There’s also the fact that Odom and Gasol are incredibly expensive players for a rebuilding team.
3. The Lakers can offer first round picks, but none of the picks are going to be very high. They’re likely to come in the late 20′s, which is nothing to get excited about considering Golden State and the Clippers can offer more.

The Solution: Why not pull in the Hawks?

Josh Smith is available, and Atlanta has picks they might be willing to offer up in a Gasol trade. L.A. could then trade the pick(s) from Atlanta to New Orleans (along with a pick or two of their own) and take back Okafor and Paul. Here’s the deal I would propose:

• L.A. gets Chris Paul, Okafor, and Josh Smith
• New Orleans gets Bynum, Kirk Hinrich, and draft picks from both Atlanta and L.A.
• Atlanta gets Gasol and saves about $2 million in salary

Everyone wins.

• L.A. gets a great group of players and a legit shot at a championship, but they also get to pay a hefty luxury tax. As time goes by, these types of contracts are going to become very toxic, and only big markets like L.A. will be able to take them on.
• New Orleans gets a nice young asset in Bynum, picks, and a veteran point guard who can hold down the fort (and who might take a buy-out later this year). New Orleans could also probably work out some cash in this trade too.
• Atlanta gets to move Al Horford to PF, adds an All-Star at Center, and gets rid of a malcontent who will be very expensive to re-sign (Smith). They also save money this year.

While this trade isn’t perfect – New Orleans would prefer picks from lottery teams, L.A. probably doesn’t want to take on Okafor, and Atlanta needs depth – all three teams get what they need.

Furthermore, both L.A. and Atlanta have a legit shot at a championship this year as a result of this trade. Gasol + Horford + Joe Johnson is a formidable group out East that will give the Heat and the Bulls a good run.

Thoughts?

PG – Wade, Chalmers, or Mike Miller – Wade is probably going to spend a lot of time at PG simply because they need Miller’s shooting, and Miller doesn’t have a chance of guarding speedy PGs like Rondo, Jameer Nelson, Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings, etc.

SG – Wade or Mike Miller

SF – LeBron

PF – Bosh

C – Haslem

Bench – Chalmers, Joel Anthony (who?), Raja Bell (I’m guessing on this one, but I feel pretty confident), and anyone who wants a ring bad enough to play for a paltry 1.3 million.

The question is, how will this group play and how will they match up with the rest of Eastern Conference?

Heat: Chemistry and Coaching

1. A good friend of mine who played college basketball once told me that “everyone is happy with their role as long as they’re winning.” While this axiom is probably true, I’m a little skeptical that Wade and LeBron can happily co-exist. It seems that Wade is set to be the closer on this team, and while I think LeBron will probably appreciate that, it remains to be seen if these guys will be able to share the glory.

2. LeBron is used to having full control. It’s well documented that LeBron and his entourage had free reign in Cleveland. How will he deal with the iron fist of Pat Riley? No more cronies on the team plane, no more calling his own plays, etc.

3. Coach Spolestra seems like he’s about to get screwed over by Riley. It won’t shock me is Spolestra takes a backseat around the holidays. While this might seem like a good thing, it’s important to note that a team with a lame duck coach usually isn’t very disciplined.

Truth be told, these three issues are probably very small. Still, you never know.

How The Heat Match-up

Assuming everyone is healthy (and that’s a big assumption), here’s how the new-look Heat will probably match-up with their potential Eastern Conference rivals:

Boston – Rond0 and Allen are at least as capable as any combination of Wade, Miller, and Chalmers. Rondo’s jumpshot will continue to improve, Allen will always be a great outside threat, and neither Wade or Miller has a hope of guarding Rondo effectively for 40 minutes a night. Wade will come close, but only at the expense of a lot of offensive production. Miami’s lack of a true PG will hurt them against the Celtics.

At the wing, it’s clear that LeBron is better than Pierce. However, Pierce will still manage to make LeBron work for his points just as he has done in years past. Finally, at the 4 and the 5, I think Bosh + Haslem + some vet’s minimum bigs are no better than a rotation of Garnett, Perkins, Jermaine O’Neal, and Rasheed Wallace (assuming he doesn’t retire).

A series between these two will likely come down to coaching and chemistry, which is why I mentioned all of that first. Boston is going to miss Thibodeau in this one, so I’d call it 50-50.

Orlando – The x-factor in Orlando is Dwight Howard. If he can somehow learn to hit his free throws and make an occasional jumpshot, he can single-handedly dominate the Heat. Bosh is too soft to bang with Howard, and frankly the Heat can’t afford to let Bosh guard him anyways (the risk of foul trouble is just too great). There’s also the fact that Gortat is going to be significantly better than any big on Miami’s bench. If Dwight and Gortat improve a little (and they probably will), Orlando’s front court is going to dominate.

As for the wing, I’m assuming we’ll see more of Rashard Lewis at the 3. If so, that’s a tough match-up for both teams. LeBron doesn’t have the height to guard Lewis, and Lewis doesn’t have the speed to cover LeBron. It will be interesting, but LeBron probably has the edge here.

Finally, Orlando’s back court of Nelson, Duhon, Vince Carter, and JJ Redick (assuming he’s retained) is going to be at least as good as Miami’s rotation. Wade is great of course, but he’s going to need to do it all on both ends to have a chance. I’m not saying he can’t, I’m just saying that 40 minutes of chasing Redick or Nelson off screens, and/or hounding Duhon and Nelson as they bring the ball up the court, and/or keeping Vince out of the lane is a big workload for the Heat’s primary scorer.

If Dwight Howard improves into a better shooter (as he should), Miami will lose to the Magic because of a lack of rebounding, size, and subsequent foul trouble. If Howard doesn’t improve, the Magic will still have a very slight edge over Miami.

Chicago, Milwaukee, and Atlanta will all present challenges to the Heat, but only the Bucks and the Bulls have a clear advantage over Miami (both teams have a much better frontcourt).

• Chicago’s lack of outside shooting will make it hard for them to beat the Heat, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me to see Chicago win some tight games and take a series to 7 games.
• The Bucks shouldn’t be counted out either – Scott Skiles coaches defense, and the Heat will struggle to win a slow, grind-it-out game. With Bogut’s clear superiority at the center position and an improving Jennings, this team will threaten any team on any given night.
• Atlanta seems like they’re missing something. If they find it (I’m not sure what it is) they can be very good. A new coach might be enough to move (only a true center and a better defender at PG would help).

Who wins the conference? It’s too early to make a prediction, but if I had to guess today I’d say Orlando or Boston. Miami’s lack of front court players is a real weakness, and their lack of consistent outside shooting (Wade and LeBron are too streaky) will make it hard for them to win a grind-it-out game against either squad.

1 . Your average NBA fan doesn’t understand the game.

Unless you’re watching the Lakers or the Knicks play, you rarely hear a home crowd boo their own team. Why? Because in most cities, the fans don’t know what to expect from their team. When the Lakers or the Knicks blow a lead, give up consecutive offensive rebounds, or miss an easy shot, their fans let them have it. These things are caused by laziness. These things are caused by stupidity. These things are unacceptable. When was the last time you booed your team for doing something stupid or lazy? Maybe you haven’t booed them because you don’t know how the game is played.

2 . NBA fans are drunk.

Attend any game at any arena in America and you’ll find beer. Lots of beer. Some arenas even serve shots and mixed drinks. I’ve got nothing against enjoying alcohol, but there’s something about public events that encourages the average fan to over imbibe. Drunkeness is only enjoyable for drunk people – everyone else is irritated.

3 . NBA fans imagine they’re important.

This one really gets me – people saying “WE DID IT!” after their team wins. WTF? Really? “We” did it? What exactly did you do? Was it that order of nachos that pushed your team over the top, or was it that time you high-fived the guy next to you when so-and-so hit a shot? Unless you’re working out one of your team’s players in practice, you can shut the hell up about this “we did it” business.

4 . NBA fans only participate when their team wins.

Remember when the Pacers were good? That stadium was full every game (about 20k people). This season, Indiana has the league’s lowest attendance figures (about 12k a game). Did 8,000 game ticket buying Pacers fans die in the last 4 years? No. The answer is that those Pacer fans are busy buying Celtics jerseys and talking about how they’ve been a Celtics fan since Bird joined the team in 1980 whatever. Ya right.

5. The “I could have made that play” BS.

You’re watching the game with your friends and your team blows a layup. Somebody quips “I COULD HAVE MADE THAT ONE!!”. Really?! Shut the #@% UP. You can’t even run the length of the court three times. Next time you (or someone you know) starts to utter that phrase, I want you to stop and say “these men are elite athletes – I am a couch potato.” Keep saying it until you believe it, or until your pizza shows up. Fat ass.

Here’s why NY and LA NBA fans are better:

Every year, regardless of the team, regardless of the record, NY and LA enjoy full or nearly full arenas. Just because the team isn’t playing well doesn’t mean fans aren’t buying tickets. NY and LA fans will also boo their team when they’re playing poorly, something I have yet to see in another arena (at least consistently). Finally, and perhaps most importantly, your average run-of-the-mill moron can’t afford to buy tickets to a Lakers or Knicks game. When you keep those people out, the “we did it” mob mentality doesn’t grab hold like it does in a lot of the cheaper arenas in the country.

I hope that I made you laugh. I also hope that I made you think. I really hope I pissed some people off. The truth is that just about everyone has done one or more of these things themselves. You can be mad, you can argue with me and say “my team’s fans are better because blah blah blah”, or you can stop sucking as a fan. Read more. Listen more than you talk. Crack a book sometime in the off-season and learn how the game is played. Get out on the court and run some suicides, do a rebounding drill, and try making a 23 foot jumper. Then maybe you’ll appreciate the game for what it is – the greatest game on the planet.