The Celtics Big Three On Track To Fail
By JL on Nov 25, 2007 in Boston Celtics
Friday, November 2nd. The Celtics destroyed the Wizards 103 - 83. The game was over by halftime.
Wednesday, November 7th. The Celtics wrecked the Nuggets 119 - 93. Nuggets coach George Karl and superstar Allen Iverson both said it was one of the worst beatings they suffered in their careers.
Friday, November 9th. The Celtics blasted the Hawks 106 - 83. They had a 14pt lead at halftime and never looked back.
Tuesday, November 13th. The Celtics powered by the Pacers 101 - 86, proving they can win big on the road.
Wednesday, November 14th. The Celtics embarrassed the Nets 91 - 69 and hit 7-0.
Wednesday, November 21st. The Celtics pounded the Warriors 105 - 82. The Celtics went up by 9 pts at the end of the first and stayed in control the rest of the way.
So what’s the problem?
Garnett, Pierce, and Ray Allen averaged 35 minutes in blowout games!! In each of the blowout games mentioned, the big three played entirely too much. Even worse, Garnett and Pierce are averaging about 38 minutes per game for the season, and Ray Allen is averaging more than 39 minutes. There’s only one word for letting these three guys play so many minutes so early in the season — INSANITY.
The Celtics are headed for trouble — they’ve got a bunch of 30-somethings playing major minutes. Garnett is 31. Allen is 32. Paul Pierce is 30. Because these guys are on the wrong side of 30, they’re more likely to get injured. That’s by no means a slam — it’s just a fact of life. The smart move would be to let the “big 3″ play enough minutes to win the game, and then not one minute more. So why are Pierce, KG, and Jesus Shuttleworth running 35+ in blowout games?!
I know that all three of these guys have averaged nearly 40 minutes a game in their careers, and that they’re each athletic enough to handle the load. But there’s no getting around the fact that these guys should be playing less minutes every year, not more. This point is so obvious to me that it really makes me wonder what the problem is. Coach Doc Rivers and GM Danny Ainge know the game, and they should be trying to cut back on minutes in order to protect their biggest assets.
So why does Rivers allow these guys to play so much in games that are often over in the 2nd quarter?
It’s because the Celtics have almost no depth. Rivers is allowing his superstars to play league-leading minutes because he thinks that’s the only way they can win. Obviously, that’s bad. 82 games @ 38+ minutes a night = three tired veterans come playoff time. Does anyone really believe that Garnett, Pierce, and Allen will ALL be healthy and ready to go after 6 months of that kind of abuse?
It’s hard to win a championship, let alone a playoff series, when your top players have played 38+ an entire season.
If the prospect of failing come playoff time isn’t enough, there’s another problem with these insane minutes — Boston isn’t developing their bench. Big Baby Davis is playing about 6 minutes a game, despite an above average rebounding rate per 48. Tony Allen — a guy who shot 51% from the field last year — is averaging only 12 minutes. Powe, a promising 2nd rounder, hasn’t even cracked 5 minutes in one game! Only veterans Posey and House are getting decent run, but that’s not very smart. Boston needs to develop their future talent, and the best way to do that is playing in NBA garbage time.
Here’s what the Celtics need to do:
1) Copy the Spurs. San Antonio could probably win 70 games a season by playing Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili 40 minutes a night, but they’re too smart for that. They limit their veterans during the regular season (especially during the first half of the regular season), keeping Duncan and Parker to less than 35 minutes a night, and Ginobili to less than 30. If that means they lose some close games, so be it. The team will be rested and ready come playoff time.
2) Develop the bench, even if it costs them some games. Boston’s bench sucks — with the exception of House and Posey, they don’t have anyone who could jump in and play starter’s minutes. But that can change — Big Baby Davis is a talent that could give them some inside scoring punch, once he gets some minutes. Tony Allen is set to explode this year after a great season last year. Pruitt (if he wasn’t sent down to the d-league) and Powe might be able to provide some solid minutes every night, if they can just get their feet under them. Besides, so what if the Celtics lose some close games? They don’t need to run the table to get a decent spot in the playoffs — they just need to win the division. Considering how poorly New Jersey and Toronto have started (not to mention Philly and New York), it’s quite possible it will only take 45 wins to win the Atlantic. I’m not saying they should coast just yet, but it might be alright to rest a little.
3) Rivers needs to take control and use his head. I still can’t get over it — what is Rivers thinking? Take the home opener against the Wizards — that game was over by halftime. Why didn’t Rivers give his bench players more time to beat up on the Wizards? They could use the confidence, and you’ve always got the big 3 in reserve if the game starts to get away from you. I’m sure that Rivers probably wanted to let his big dogs run in front of the home crowd, and I’m sure that none of the big stars wanted to sit, but Rivers is the head coach. He needs to act like one.
Despite this problem, there is some good news: If the Celtics can develop some of their younger players, ratchet down “the big three” to 30-35 minutes a night, and stay injury free, there’s absolutely no reason to believe they can’t compete for the NBA championship. They’re pretty damn good.






































11 Comment(s)
By Eric Weiss on Nov 26, 2007 | Reply
JL,
You’re missing a fundamental principle in this situation…while playing big minutes for an entire 82 game season is certainly not the way to go, this team is at game number 13…
The reason the Celtics aren’t treating their stars like the Spurs is because they don’t have the experience together that the Spurs have. The team is taking the first couple months of the season to fast-forward the chemistry process and get their full offensive package into action before they start extending minutes to the bench players…
This is a classic case of impatience…GPA isn’t going to run out of steam because they’re playing 38 mpg for the first 30-35 games of the season…once they groove the team will start using Pollard, Powe, Davis, and T Allen with more frequency…
The idea is to get off to a solid start, incorporate all the plays for the main rotation during the soft opening schedule, and then start cutting down minutes…
…this has been stated by team personnel a number of times…
By JL on Nov 26, 2007 | Reply
I don’t buy it — does that team really need all that time to gel? I know they started training camp a month early (basically), and I can tell they all have their roles down in the offense.
Besides, by that same token, why don’t the bench players get time for the same reasons? They need time to develop chemistry too.
All I can tell you is that the time to build chemistry, offensive smoothness, etc. is during tough games leading into the playoffs. Most teams ramp up minutes a couple of months before April, not the first month out of the gate.
By Big Boards on Nov 26, 2007 | Reply
I agree with the first poster. First off I was a big complainer about Doc last year so I am not blindly defending him now, but these guys need to see many different looks and situations on D especially so they can develop the team D chemistry needed for a Championship. This often takes 3 years to mature with a core of guys playing year in and out (see Celtic glory days for e.g. as well as spurs and Pistons recently, Lakers were the exception as they got by on talent, but still teh guys liky HOrry, D Fish and Rick Fox did role player things to help the stars on D).
I think we should coast for a month in Feberuary to rest them for the playoffs, its not like any of them were playing last June…
Big Boards
By JL on Nov 26, 2007 | Reply
That’s a good point — the Celtics are trying to compress 3 years of playing time into one season. I can see the benefits of this strategy, but the risk is pretty big…at least in my opinion.
By Steve on Nov 26, 2007 | Reply
JL you must have never played ball in your life. They DO NOT have it all perfect yet, theyre getting used to their new roles and new system. They are learning where to find each other on offense, theyre taking less shots and becoming less of “THE COMPLETE FOCAL POINT” that they were last year on their former teams, and it takes time. They need to build that chemistry, the Spurs have been together for 10 years. We have been together for 3 months!!!! The Spurs in their first title together all played 38+ a night, you need to build up the first 8 of the rotation most importantly at first. That is priority, everything is great right now and each of the 3 are playing less minutes than they usually do anyways. Theyre fine, the Bulls in their last championship had their guys playing 40+ a night the whole year and Mike was 35 years old by that point.
Youre freaking out about nothing. This is great what they are doing, theyre still learning and are nowhere near what they will be by the end of the year. There is a long way to go, especially on offense. Turnovers is a perfect example of that, let them build the chemistry it takes to win a ring. It takes time, let it develop.
By Steve on Nov 26, 2007 | Reply
OK I saw your second post JL, I didnt mean to jump on you. My bad.
By SPACELAZER on Nov 26, 2007 | Reply
hows about a conspiracy theory: doc is pushing the minutes to protect his own job.
dude was only given a one year extension and management hired a head coach in waiting - doc came into the season on thin ice - figuring he cant be fired if he never loses, figuring going deep in the playoffs is a good enough addition to his resume, he risks playing 3 30+ y/o 40 a night.
i’ll be curious to see what happens if management asks him to trim their minutes and he just cant bring himself to do it.
By JL on Nov 26, 2007 | Reply
Spacelazer — I like it. Seems like a good explanation for Doc’s complicity.
Steve — I get the idea that they need to play together to build chemistry, but I still don’t see how they benefit from playing together in blowouts. It seems like the benefit doesn’t outweigh the risk. I’ll agree that blowing out a team is fun, and that it helps build camaraderie, but I’d argue that sitting on the sidelines and watching the younger guys hold their own is just as much fun for the vets and builds about as much chemistry. Plus, you have the added benefits of developing the bench and giving young guys some confidence.
By Josh on Nov 27, 2007 | Reply
SPACELAZER, I can’t agree with you. Winning in regular season is certainly important but I don’t think doc is so dumb that he doesn’t realize that winning in regular season and losing miserably in playoffs will also cost his job too. I agree with Steve, it takes time even for future Hall of famers to jell.
By SPACELAZER on Nov 27, 2007 | Reply
you wouldnt see losing miserably in the playoffs. this team is too talented for that. barring major injuries (which is a risk w/over playing old dudes) it’d be losing in the conf championships w/a team that should be competing for a title. which from docs resume’s perspective is a lot better than being fired mid-season after a losing streak.
By SPACELAZER on Nov 27, 2007 | Reply
as for the “jelling” theory - it just dont make no sense. the whole team has to jel. everyone has to get used to their roles. how does switching the roles after 20 games help players adjust. not to mention theyre wasting time that could be used to develop young players.
obv the spurs are the example everyone’s pointing at. they lost to sacramento last night. and they didnt mind that much. duncan played 33 min, parker and ginobilli played less. they lost by 13 points - it was not a blowout. does anyone think doc will ever have the discipline to rest his stars during the season like that? the discipline to sacrifice home court advantage (as the spurs have done) to stay fresh for the playoffs?